Xander Schauffele just earned his first major win at the 2024 PGA Championship. Can he build on his excellent 2024 season with a win at the U.S. Open?

Schauffele will look to become a back-to-back major winner as the golf world heads to North Carolina to compete on Pinehurst Resort’s famed No. 2 course.

Despite Schauffele’s strong recent run, Scottie Scheffler remains the prohibitive favorite to win the event. He is coming off a win at The Memorial Tournament, proving once again that few golfers can conquer courses the way the World No. 1 golfer can.

Elsewhere, Rory McIlroy and Collin Morikawa will look to emerge as worthwhile challengers at Pinehurst, and LIV Golf stars Jon Rahm and Brooks Koepka will attempt to earn their tour its first major win of the 2024 season.

Who will take home the U.S. Open trophy in 2024? The Sporting News breaks down the odds and best bets to win golf’s third major.

U.S. Open odds 2024

Scottie Scheffler (+350) is favored to win the 2024 U.S. Open, according to odds from BetMGM Sportsbook. This shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the World No. 1 golfer was favored entering both the Masters (which he won) and the PGA Championship (where he finished tied for eighth). He also has six wins on the season, including one at The Memorial Tournament last week on a difficult course.

Rory McIlroy (+1000) is expected to be Scheffler’s top challenger. McIlroy hasn’t missed a cut this season and has three top-five finishes in his past seven events. That includes a win at the Wells Fargo Championship, so he should have a chance to compete for a win at the long, difficult Pinehurst No. 2 course.

PGA Championship winner Xander Schauffele (+1200), reigning PGA Tour champion Viktor Hovland (+1600), and Swedish wunderkind Ludvig Aberg (+1800) represent the other top PGA Tour golfers at the U.S. Open. Jon Rahm (+1600), Brooks Koepka (+2000), and Bryson DeChambeau (+2000) are the top championship contenders from LIV Golf.

Reigning U.S. Open champion Wyndham Clark (+3300) is viewed as a potential contender for the event as well. Meanwhile, both Tiger Woods (+15000) and Phil Mickelson (+25000) are playing, but neither is expected to make a legitimate run at another major title at this event.

Below are the odds for the top golfers in this year’s U.S. Open. Only competitors with odds of 100-1 or better odds to win the tournament are listed.

U.S. Open course breakdown: Pinehurst No. 2

The U.S. Open will be played in Pinehurst, N.C. at the Pinehurst Resort’s No. 2 golf course. Pinehurst No. 2 is consistently rated as one of the best and toughest courses in the country, making it an ideal choice to host the U.S. Open.

Pinehurst No. 2 was originally designed by former golfer and course architect Donald J. Ross. It has been renovated twice — most recently in 2010 by Bill Coore and Ben Crenshaw — and currently plays to a length of 7,540 yards. The course is typically a par-72 layout, but it will be a par-70 layout for the 2024 U.S. Open, as two Par-5 holes have been converted into Par 4s for the tournament.

Naturally, the length of Pinehurst will make bettors gravitate toward the tour’s best drivers and ball strikers. That will make strokes gained off the tee (SG:OTT) particularly important to monitor, as those who consistently hit the fairway and get distance will have an advantage on this course.

Accuracy and shot control will also be important, as Pinehurst doesn’t have typical rough lining its sides. Instead, it has dry, sandy patches dotted with collections of native plants that create uniquely difficult shots for those who miss the fairway. That means driving accuracy and good drive percentage will be stats worth watching.

As always, strokes gained on approach (SG:APP) will be critical, as players who consistently hit greens in regulation (GIR) will have an advantage over those who have to scramble or make sand saves on a course with 117 bunkers. That will make sand save percentage almost as important as strokes gained around the green (SG:ARG) given the prevalence of those bunkers.

Finally, it’s always important to keep an eye on strokes gained putting (SG:Putting). Players who enter majors doing well with the short stick tend to have a better chance to compete on tough golf courses than those struggling on the green. That often is the make-or-break difference between a major winner and a top-10 finisher.

U.S. Open expert picks

U.S. Open best bets to win tournament

Scottie Scheffler (+350) could certainly win the U.S. Open, but it’s hard to blame anyone for wanting to avoid his uber-short odds to win it all. That’s what makes Rory McIlroy (+1000) the most appealing bet among the favorites to win it all.

McIlroy has the requisite length needed to take advantage of Pinehurst and shorten the course while also sporting a top-20 approach game and is a top-50 putter. He can be erratic and inaccurate at times, but if he remains consistent and accurate throughout the week, he should fare well. It’s also worth noting that McIlroy has enjoyed success golfing in North Carolina — he earned his fourth PGA Tour win at Quail Hollow in Charlotte earlier this year — so that could give him an edge, even on a much different-looking course.

Elsewhere, Xander Schauffele (+1200) is playing some of the best golf on the PGA Tour right now, so backing him here seems like a solid bet. Sure, winning back-to-back majors isn’t easy, but Schauffele’s shot control, accuracy, and ability to gain strokes from tee to green — he ranks top 10 in both SG:OTT and SG:APP — makes him a safe, appealing player to back here.

U.S. Open value picks for top-10 finish, DFS lineups

Scheffler and Schauffele have captured a lot of attention on the PGA Tour lately, but Collin Morikawa (+2000) is also showing great form. He has finished top five in five of his past six events but hasn’t yet won during the 2024 PGA Tour season.

Morikawa is one of the more accurate drivers on the circuit thanks to his consistent power fade, so he should be able to control his shot and avoid the troublesome, sandy rough at Pinehurst. He challenged Scheffler at The Memorial Tournament last week — finishing second despite a strong comeback effort on the tournament’s final day — so he should be in the running to do the same at Pinehurst, especially if he can remain hot with his putter.

Those looking for a bit more value may want to look into Hideki Matsuyama (+3300) as a value pick. The 2021 Masters champion has a rock-solid tee-to-green game, but his best skill comes as a scrambler. He ranks No. 1 on the PGA Tour in SG:ARG, so even if he isn’t accurate on approach, he should be able to get up and down easily and get some hole-outs from off the green.

Matsuyama’s biggest weakness is his putter, but we’ve seen him perform well with it often throughout his career. If he can get hot at Pinehurst, that should be enough to thrust him into contention.

U.S. Open sleeper picks

Alex Noren (+8000) has been one of the most consistent golfers on the PGA Tour this season. He has missed just one cut this season and has finished worse than 26th just twice in his 14 starts. He doesn’t have many weaknesses in his game and ranks top 10 in good drive percentage, GIR percentage, SG:ARG, and sand save percentage.

Will that give Noren enough to compete with the top talents at the U.S. Open? Maybe not, but if he can perform as steadily at Pinehurst as he has all season, that should give him another shot at a top-20 finish on a difficult course.

Russell Henley (+8000) is another great sleeper option. He routinely is among the most accurate drivers in golf, ranking seventh on the PGA Tour in that category this season. Henley is also a strong putter and ranks No. 1 in sand save percentage, so he has the tee-to-green ability needed to contender at this major — even if he lacks the distance needed to shorten the course.

U.S. Open winners by year

Wyndham Clark is the reigning U.S. Open champion. He shot 10-under par at the Los Angeles Country Club in 2024 to earn his first career major win over Rory McIlroy (9 under) and Scottie Scheffler (7 under).

Clark is now seeking to become the sixth player to win the U.S. Open in consecutive seasons over the past 100 years. Brooks Koepka (2017-18), Curtis Strange (1988-89), Ben Hogan (1950-51), Ralph Guldahl (1937-38), and Bobby Jones (1929-30) are the only others who have achieved that feat since the tournament switched to stroke play in 1930.

Tiger Woods has the most U.S. Open wins among still-active golfers with three. If he can pull off an improbable win at Pinehurst, he would tie the record for most U.S. Open titles of all time, joining Willie Anderson, Bobby Jones, Ben Hogan, and Jack Nicklaus.

Below is a full list of the winners of the U.S. Open since it was first held in 1895.