The 2024 Copa America will bring one of the most popular international football tournaments to the United States, as stars from across South America travel north to contest a special edition of their continental championship.

With the U.S. playing host to the famed CONMEBOL competition, joined by other CONCACAF guests Canada, Jamaica, Panama, and Costa Rica, Lionel Messi and Argentina will look to defend their famous 2021 title.

It’s potentially the last chapter for Messi at a major international competition, as the 36-year-old continues to contemplate whether he will participate in the 2026 World Cup two years from now, also on U.S. soil. As the United States gears up to host the enormous 2026 FIFA championship, the country first marks the midway point in the World Cup cycle with the Copa America.

As part of that, Messi will also look to defend his joint-2021 Golden Boot title, finishing that tournament level as the top scorer in the competition. In such a historically physical, defensive-minded competition, it doesn’t take much — only one player since Pele’s eight in 1959 has won the Copa America top scorer award with seven goals or more at the competition, and only four since 1993 have scored six.

The Sporting News brings you a full look at the contenders for the Golden Boot award at the 2024 Copa America, and takes a stab at predicting who will emerge with the crown and who will disappoint in pursuit.

MORE: Predicting who will win 2024 Copa America as Argentina look to defend title in USA

Copa America Golden Boot odds with Lionel Messi favorite in 2024

It’s no surprise in the slightest that Argentina superstar Lionel Messi is the favorite to win the Golden Boot for top goal scorer at this summer’s Copa America. With 13 career goals at the Copa America in his career, Messi needs four more to equal his countrymate Norberto Mendez and Brazilian legend Zizinho as the most prolific goal scorer in the history of this competition. The 36-year-old is already the leading assist provider in the competition all-time, with 17 Copa America assists in his career.

Messi finished as joint-top scorer at the 2021 Copa America, scoring four goals in a title-winning effort. He finished level with Luis Diaz of Colombia in that competition, who is amongst the contenders for this year’s award too.

Others near the top of the charts are Brazil talisman Vinicius Jr, who has just three career international goals to his name, and Uruguayan frontman Darwin Nunez who finished with 11 goals and eight assists in his second full Premier League season.

Odds as of May 31, 2024 via BetMGM in USA.

Who will win 2024 Copa America top goal scorer?

Book it folks — Lionel Messi will win his second consecutive Golden Boot award at a Copa America, en route to his second consecutive title.

Simply put, there is nobody else in CONMEBOL who has the regular volume of attacking moves, influence on a match, and attention of his teammates more than Messi. He’s the team’s regular (and probably only) penalty taker, and will be fed with constant creative output from the likes of Angel Di Maria, Nico Gonzalez, Enzo Fernandez, and the rest of the buildup.

Argentina have the softest group draw of any top side in the competition with strugglers Peru and Chile plus playoff qualifiers Canada, all of whom have conceded oodles of goals in recent competitive environments. Additionally, with Group B projecting as another weak group of teams, Argentina might not even be tested with a truly quality opponent until the final. It’s all set up for Messi to feast, and only an injury can reasonably scupper his chances at emerging with this title.

Prediction: Lionel Messi (+350 on BetMGM)

Picking anyone but Lionel Messi for this title is essentially a bet on him to be injured, which would unfortunately be a reasonable occurence given his recent struggles with nagging muscle issues. So where to go from there?

Darwin Nunez had a difficult season at Liverpool, where his below-average finishing was on full display. That should not dissuade us from backing him with a punt to end up as the tournament’s top scorer, as Uruguay play an extremely high-intensity style under Marcelo Bielsa that isn’t totally unlike what he’s used to at Liverpool where he’s served as a chaos monger under Jurgen Klopp. Nunez has goals in four straight matches for Uruguay, coming against the likes of Colombia, Brazil, and Argentina plus a brace against Bolivia who are in their Copa America group.

Another longshot selection is Luis Diaz of Colombia, whose exploits at the 2021 Copa America the betting market has clearly forgotten. Another player who had a muted season at Liverpool compared to expectations, Diaz receives a high volume of attacking buildup with Los Cafeteros, delivering the brace which famously downed Brazil in World Cup qualifying last November. Diaz slowed at the end of the Premier League season as did the rest of the run-down Liverpool squad, but his two-month stretch from early February to early April proves he can still deliver the goods for a team expected to make some noise at this competition.

Dark Horse: Darwin Nunez (+600 on BetMGM), Luis Diaz (+3300 on BetMGM)

Real Madrid star Vinicius Jr. was born for the spotlight, but to this point in his career at 23 years old, he has failed to deliver at the international stage. With just three career goals in 28 caps for Brazil, he has not scored since last June on the international stage, and hasn’t scored a competitive goal since his strike against South Korea in the Round of 16 at the 2022 World Cup.

In fact, Vinicius may not even finish this tournament as his team’s top scorer, as club teammate Rodrygo could be more heavily involved, but even he has had trouble breaking the lid off his international career. With Brazil more vulnerable to an early upset than they ever have been in recent Copa America memory, steering clear of their biggest stars is the best move, especially as they navigate a tough group stage against teams which could try to grind them down with frustrating defensive tactics — Paraguay, for example  have conceded three goals in their last seven matches across the last calendar year.

Another big-name player at this competition is Lautaro Martinez, who just finished another year at the top of the goal scoring charts in Serie A — and it wasn’t particularly close, bagging 24 goals, putting him an astonishing eight ahead of anyone else. Yet Lautaro is another one who just cannot get going on the international level, and has found himself relegated to a support role both in the starting lineup and on the bench. If you can believe it, his finish in a friendly against Costa Rica back in March stopped a nightmare streak of sixteen international appearances without a goal that dated back to before the 2022 World Cup.

Until they prove they can translate their exceptional club form to the national team, find other options before backing both of these players who simply cannot get the wheels turning on the international stage.

Stay away from: Vinicius Jr (+400 on BetMGM), Lautaro Martinez (+800 on BetMGM)