Who can get the No. 1 pick? Patriots, Giants, Titans, Browns NFL draft scenarios

Admin January 2, 2025

This time last season, the No. 1 pick in the upcoming NFL draft was set. The Carolina Panthers were at least two games behind every other team in the NFL in the win column and had the top selection wrapped up (for the Chicago Bears, that is).

This season is quite different. Four teams enter the final week of the regular season tied for the worst record in the league. The New England Patriots, Tennessee Titans, Cleveland Browns, and New York Giants are all 3-13.

New England holds the No. 1 spot entering Week 18. Here’s how each of those four teams could end up with the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft:

How the Patriots can get the No. 1 pick

Of those four teams, the Patriots have the worst strength of schedule at 0.467. That comes in handy for the No. 1 pick if the Patriots are in a tie for the worst record in the NFL like they are entering the season finale.

If New England loses, they keep the No. 1 pick. If they win against a Bills team that may be resting starters, they’d need the other three teams at 3-13 to win as well. They’d then be tied at 4-13 with the rest and earn the No. 1 pick based on that strength of schedule.

How the Titans can get the No. 1 pick

Tennessee is next in line to get the No. 1 pick based on strength of schedule at 0.515. The Titans need a loss to the Texans plus a Patriots win to get the No. 1 pick.

After a 31-2 loss to the Baltimore Ravens, Houston coach DeMeco Ryans said “everybody has to be ready to go” for the game against Tennessee. That means Houston’s starters could play against Tennessee and improve the Titans’ chances at a loss and the No. 1 pick.

How the Browns can get the No. 1 pick

The Giants’ win over Indianapolis in Week 17 benefitted the Browns more than anyone at the top of the current NFL draft order. Cleveland is the only team of this group whose Week 18 opponent is a playoff team fighting for a division title. The Ravens need a win over the Browns to secure the AFC North title and the No. 3 seed in the AFC playoffs.

Cleveland could get the No. 1 pick by losing to Baltimore plus wins for both New England and Tennessee. Their strength of schedule is second-highest of the group at 0.540.

How the Giants can get the No. 1 pick

New York had the inside track to the top pick this time a week ago. Now, it’s not so clear. The Giants face an Eagles team that will be resting starters in their regular season finale.

New York needs a loss to Philadelphia plus wins by New England, Tennessee, and Cleveland to get the No. 1 pick back. Their strength of schedule is the highest of the group at 0.551, which works against them for getting the No. 1 pick.

Who else can get the No. 1 pick?

There is a logjam of five NFL teams at 4-12 but none of them could get to the No. 1 pick spot. Even if all four of these teams win and the Jacksonville Jaguars — currently in the No. 5 spot — lose, they’d be No. 2 behind New England due to strength of schedule.

If New England, Tennessee, Cleveland, and New York all win, here’s how that could benefit some teams: