Admin December 28, 2024
Is Lamar Jackson the clear front runner for NFL MVP this year?
Mackenzie Salmon reacts to some blind stats between some of the front runners of the NFL MVP race.
Sports Seriously
You don’t always get what you ask for on your holiday wish lists.
However, you always receive the USA TODAY Sports staff gathering at the table every weekend to deliver the best NFL bets each week in one place. The guys have embraced the holiday spirit and gave out three winning bets for the Christmas games. The crew has arrived and is breaking down the best NFL bets today.
Our experts have provided the five best predictions for this weekend’s slate of games, selecting from all the available betting markets and supplying an in-depth analysis of spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns.
Here are the best NFL bets for Week 17 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Week 17
Odds as of Saturday.
Arizona Cardinals (+6.5) at Los Angeles Rams (-105)
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: After an inconsistent first 10 weeks, the Rams are rounding into form as the best team in the NFC West. A four-game winning streak has them in the driver’s seat for the division title entering Week 17.
The last time these teams squared off, Arizona won in a 41-10 rout back in Week 2. These teams are in much different places compared to where they were in September. The Cardinals looked like the team to beat in the division before ceding that to the Seahawks and then to the Rams.
Regardless of division standing, the line is just too big for this game. The Rams are 3-1 in divisional contests and all three wins have been by six points or less.
Will the Rams win this game at home on Saturday? It seems more likely than not at this point in the season but 6.5 is too big a line considering the Rams’ resume. A 27-24 result feels more likely than a touchdown advantage by the final whistle.
Denver Broncos moneyline at Cincinnati Bengals (+150)
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: Special thanks to Kareem Hunt and the Kansas City Chiefs (and special thanks for nothing to Mike Evans and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers) for moving us to 3-1 in staff picks after Christmas.
That said, we’re staying on the AFC West wagon here. Denver is a road underdog in Week 17 against the Bengals, but the Broncos can clinch a playoff spot with one more win. They’ll be looking to return to their winning ways after a tough loss to the Chargers on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 16 that snapped their win streak at four games.
Cincinnati has been one of the worst teams at stopping the run in the NFL this year, and they haven’t gotten much better at it in recent weeks. The Bengals rank 29th in rush EPA allowed (0.013) and 30th in rush success rate allowed (46.2%) this season. Over the last four weeks, they’re still 24th in rush EPA allowed (-0.001) and 28th in rush success rate allowed (48.4%).
Denver has a chance to run wild on the Bengals with its two-headed backfield of Javonte Williams and rookie Audric Estimé, who had a combined average of 5.5 yards per carry against the Chargers last week.
The stars also seem to be aligning for the Broncos to clinch their first playoff berth since 2015 in their Week 17 game.
The last time Denver clinched a postseason spot was nine years to the day before Saturday’s matchup – Dec. 28, 2015. Denver clinched with a win over Cincinnati in that game, which was also its penultimate game of the season and followed a 34-27 loss on the road.
Breece Hall, Jets RB, OVER 21.5 receiving yards (-115) at Bills
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Brownie the Elf’s colleague, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, got the job done before Christmas, getting us in the win column for staff picks. We want to put a bow on 2024 and pay some bills with another Sunday win. This week is about looking back on the year before we ring in 2025. The Jets will try to wipe the past 12 months from their memory, Hall included.
It’s been a down season for the star running back, who has gone over 100 total yards just four times in 14 games. Previously dealing with a knee injury, the question was whether Hall would end up being shut down for the season as the Jets extended their playoff drought. That never came to fruition and Week 17 presents a favorable matchup for “Breece Lightning.”
The Bills allow the most receiving yards per game (47.6) to running backs this season and Aaron Rodgers loves to throw to his backfield mates. Hall delivered in this matchup in Week 6, bringing in 5-of-6 targets for 56 yards. He was back up to six targets in Week 16, indicating that those previous injury concerns should be behind him. This will likely be a trailing game script for “Gang Green,” and Hall figures to be heavily involved in the passing game.
For Auld Lang Syne, we’re playing our greatest hits on the way out the 2024 door. Let’s hope Hall doesn’t drop the ball before we do next week.
Josh Allen, Bills QB, anytime TD vs. Jets (-125)
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: I’m all for picking up some wins to help us “pay some bills,” as Nick mentioned above. What better way to do that than by backing a member of the Buffalo Bills?
Lamar Jackson just put up a monster performance on Christmas Day to close the gap in the MVP race between him and Allen. It’s time for the Bills quarterback to answer, and he should be ready for that after spending the better part of the holiday season hearing that Jackson deserves to win his third MVP before Allen gets his first.
Allen is getting a favorable matchup against a Jets team that has struggled to stop the quarterback run this season. New York has allowed seven touchdowns to the position this season, second-most in the NFL behind only the Dallas Cowboys. That includes one rushing touchdown to Allen in the Jets’ earlier meeting this season.
Allen had a streak of five games with a rushing touchdown coming to an end against the New England Patriots last week. Don’t be surprised to see him start a new one again versus the Jets. If you’re daring enough to bet him to score twice on the ground, I certainly don’t hate that longshot.
Bucky Irving, RB Buccaneers OVER 100.5 rushing + receiving yards vs. Panthers (-110)
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: We’re all here trying to make a buck and “pay some bills.” I’m trying to buck a losing streak and what better way to do so than backing Bucky Irving? The rookie running back has burst onto the scene as a surprise weapon in Tampa’s offense.
The Buccaneers host the Panthers on Sunday desperate for a win to keep pace with the Falcons in the NFC South. The Buccaneers are eight-point favorites so the game script should lead to more rushing attempts for Irving.
In his past four healthy games, Bucky has averaged 20.5 touches and 135.5 scrimmage yards. The Panthers have allowed the most rush yards and highest yards per carry (YPC) to running backs. Bucky is first in the NFL in yards after contact per carry (4.2) and fourth in yards per route run (1.6) and missed tackles forced per carry (28%) among qualified backs. In Week 13, Irving had a career-high 185 total yards against Carolina.
Over the last two weeks, Bucky has averaged 6.0 YPC. He is clearly over the hip and back injuries he suffered against Carolina in that breakout game. He played 57% of snaps in Week 16, his highest snap share since Week 6. His backfield mate Rachaad White fumbled on the final drive of the game which iced the Bucs’ Sunday night loss to the Cowboys. Offensive coordinator Liam Coen will lean on Irving this week. You can bank on Bucky.