Admin December 7, 2024
NFL Week 14 picks: Why you should consider Seahawks, Saints and Chargers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Sunday’s games.
It’s the most magical time of the year. The holiday season has arrived, and the USA TODAY Sports staff have assembled like the Avengers to give you the best NFL bets of Week 14 in one place.
Our experts have provided the best prediction for this weekend’s slate of games, selecting from any betting markets available and supplying an in-depth analysis on spreads, player props and anytime touchdowns. Here are our best NFL bets for Sunday games in Week 14 with odds from BetMGM. Best of luck if you tail.
Best bets NFL Week 14
Odds as of Thursday.
Chicago Bears (+4) at San Francisco 49ers (-110) prediction
Ayrton Ostly, NFL writer: The San Francisco 49ers have been outscored 73-20 over their last two games. That’s the worst two-game stretch for the franchise since coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season with the team in 2017 when the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 40-10 and the Eagles 33-10 in consecutive weeks.
Chicago has lost six straight, most recently 23-20 to the Lions on Thanksgiving, which featured clock management miscues. It was so terrible that the franchise made a coaching change midseason for the first time since World War II, firing Matt Eberflus. Even if the Bears offense takes a slight step back with interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown bumped up to interim head coach; they have a chance to end their losing streak this week.
The Bears rank sixth in the NFL in turnovers forced, and San Francisco has turned the ball over six times in the last two weeks. The 49ers will be down to their third-string running back and could be without stars Trent Williams and Nick Bosa. They’ve won by more than three points just once since Week 8.
In the last three weeks, Chicago has lost by three or fewer to Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay. All of those teams are better right now than San Francisco. The Bears are absolutely in this.
Alvin Kamara, Saints RB anytime TD (-150) at Giants prediction
Jacob Camenker, NFL writer: Nicely done, Ayrton – you took my favorite pick of the weekend off the board! Considering that, I’ll pivot to the second-best option on the Sunday slate: an Alvin Kamara TD.
Kamara was one of the NFL’s most productive running backs in the early stages of the 2024 NFL season, but surprisingly, he has endured a long touchdown dry spell. He hasn’t scored since the Saints’ Week 6 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a streak that he would like to end in a favorable matchup against the New York Giants.
The Giants have struggled badly against running backs this season. They have allowed 1,417 rushing yards to the position, fifth-most in the NFL, and they just lost defensive tackle Dexter Lawrence to a season-ending elbow injury. That will only make it more difficult to stop Kamara, who is averaging 22.1 touches per game yet could still see an uptick in opportunities following Taysom Hill‘s season-ending knee injury.
Saquon Barkley, Eagles RB OVER 114.5 rushing yards (-110) vs. Panthers prediction
Jack McKessy, NFL writer: Jacob, how dare you suggest that the New York Football Giants are anything but the greatest success story of the 2024 season. (I jest; they deserve all the heat that has come their way.)
That is a perfect transition into my pick: Saquon Barkley’s rushing over. Although 114.5 yards is a daunting number, several factors indicate a massive day coming for the Eagles’ running back against the Panthers.
Barkley has reached the 115-yard mark in four of his last seven games, and when he’s gone over that mark, he’s gone over that mark: 176 yards against the Giants, 159 yards vs. the Jaguars, 146 yards in a divisional game against the Commanders, and his 255-yard outburst against the Rams. Those four teams are among the worst rushing defenses in the NFL. Not only do they all rank in the bottom 10 for rushing yards allowed per game, but they’re also all in the bottom third of the league in rush EPA allowed.
So, where do the Panthers rank in those categories? They are dead last in the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed, at a whopping 166.8. No other team has given up more than 150 rushing yards per game. Carolina is also 31st in rush EPA allowed, with only the Cowboys in front of them. In addition, the Panthers have allowed a rush success rate of 47.3%, the worst in the league.
The Eagles are averaging the most rushing yards per game in the NFL, have the highest rush EPA in the league and are fifth in rush success rate this year. Don’t be surprised if Barkley reaches the 150-yard mark – let alone 115 – again on Sunday.
Bijan Robinson, Falcons RB, OVER 28.5 receiving yards vs. Minnesota Vikings (-110)
Nick Brinkerhoff, NFL writer: Talking trash is fine, but respectfully, what has anyone here won? Maybe save the tough guy talk for when you start collecting some wins, which is why we’re letting our picks do the talking.
Robinson comes in with a surprisingly light receiving yard total, set at 28.5 for the Falcons’ matchup with the Vikings. As always, the matchup is important here. Minnesota is welcoming old friend Kirk Cousins back to the Twin Cities. While these Vikings aren’t the second coming of the “Purple People Eaters,” Brian Flores has his defense bringing the heat in a notoriously chilly city this time of year. The Vikings blitz 38% of the time, which usually makes them a good target for the opposing quarterback’s rushing yards.
However, the immobile Cousins won’t be running much; instead, he will be throwing to Robinson, who has recently stepped up in the passing game. Robinson has exceeded this line in 4-of-6, finishing with exactly 28 yards in the other two outings.
More importantly, he’s played six games against teams in the top 10 in blitz rate. Robinson is averaging 4.3 receptions and 29.5 yards per game in those games. In the three most recent showings, that jumps to six receptions and 43.3 yards. Expect the running back to get plenty of opportunities from checkdowns on Sunday as he goes comfortably over the total. Be sure to thank Bijan Robinson as he helps us get our holiday shopping done debt-free.
Cade Otton, Buccaneers TE, OVER 39.5 receiving yards (-110) vs. Raiders prediction
Tom Viera, NFL writer/editor: Those are four great looks, and as Nick alluded to, it’s strictly business here. Some of you may know me as the resident anytime touchdown guy and might be wondering why there isn’t one dialed up here as the best bet. Luckily, Cade Otton is among the best anytime TD bets of Week 14. However, my favorite way to back Otton this week is his receptions total.
The Buccaneers tight end has been in a mini-slump since the Week 11 bye, making this a great opportunity to buy low. The recent duds might scare you, but his usage has remained high. He has had at least seven targets in five of the last six games. Tampa Bay blew out the Giants and dominated on the ground in Week 13. Last week against the Panthers, Otton finished second in targets behind only Mike Evans.
Since Evans returned from injury, Otton’s usage (89% route rate, 16% target rate, and share) has remained strong. The Bucs will host the Raiders on Sunday, who have allowed the second-most receptions per game to opposing tight ends. Otton has reached 40 yards in six of his last ten games. You can count on Cade.
