The USMNT has put itself in a dire situation and now must generate an upset result when they meet Uruguay in the final match of Group C play at the 2024 Copa America on Monday.

A damaging 2-1 defeat to Panama last time out in Atlanta left the U.S. in considerable danger of group-stage elimination and needing to generate an upset in the final game.

Uruguay are in sensational form and have been tabbed by many to be a strong contender to unseat defending champions Argentina at this competition, meaning the U.S. must elevate their level in short order or find themselves out of the mix embarrassingly early.

The qualification scenarios are all over the place for the USMNT, but most fans are proceeding under the assumption that Panama will dismantle Bolivia, just as the U.S. and Uruguay did. If that happens, it would leave the United States needing victory here plus a superior goal differential to see their way through.

USA vs. Uruguay prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Draw (+225)
• Score prediction: USA 2-2 Uruguay

There are a few things playing into the USMNT’s hands coming into this match. Uruguay are not mathematically through to the knockout round, but for all intents and purposes they are in because they’d need to see an eight-goal differential advantage wiped off for them to drop out of the mix. Thus, there could be significant squad rotation as well as a drop in focus as they look ahead to the quarterfinals.

Additionally, Marcelo Bielsa’s absence due to suspension is a slight but non-negligable advantage for the United States. Finally, with the U.S. knowing they almost certainly need to win to advance, they’ll go all guns blazing in this match.

Still, Uruguay are the second-strongest team in the Copa America right now, and securing a win here will be an uphill battle regardless of the circumstances. The U.S. may thrown men forward for a large stretch of the game, especially in the second half, but that will leave them open at the back.

Don’t be fooled by the moneyline odds or the handicaps, the U.S. are significant underdogs here, and the fact that they’re favored is likely simply due to the volume of home bets. We’re going for a draw, but there’s also enormous value in backing Uruguay to win. 

USA vs. Uruguay match facts

• Date: Monday, Jul. 1, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8 p.m. local (9 p.m. ET / 6 p.m. PT)
• Location: Arrowhead Stadium (Kansas City, MO)
• Referee: Kevin Ortega (PER)
• Last meeting: USA 0-0 Uruguay (Jun. 5, 2022 | Friendly)

USA vs. Uruguay best bet

• Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
• Odds: +110 (BetMGM)

• Pick: Half with most goals
• Odds: +110 (BetMGM)

The United States will likely look to see out the first 45 minutes without falling behind, and then open it up after halftime, which could result in a frantic game on both ends.

Given the circumstances, the U.S. will almost surely push for goals, and they have shown enough attacking prowess this tournament to suggest that they should find the net against a Uruguay side that conceded to Panama in its opener. It will be nearly impossible, however, to keep Uruguay from scoring as well, even if they rotate their side to rest stars like Darwin Nunez, having put up an insane eight goals through two Copa America matches to this point.

USA vs. Uruguay prop bet

• Pick: Christian Pulisic to score or assist a goal
• Odds: +165 (FanDuel)

• Pick: Haji Wright anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +165 (BetMGM)

The United States will know they have to throw numbers forward if they wish to advance in the Copa America. While they could sit back and look to hit Uruguay on the counter, it might be the case that a one-goal victory may not even be enough to see them through, and a multi-goal margin could be required if Panama clobber Bolivia.

Gregg Berhalter will be without Tim Weah thanks to his red card suspension, and the only logical replacement knowing what’s at stake is Haji Wright, who is in form at both the club and international level. Wright will likely slot in on the left, moving Christian Pulisic to the right, and both flanking Folarin Balogun.

That attacking trio should generate a significant number of chances, given Wright has three goals in his last four caps while Pulisic has a goal and assist on four shots and six chances created over the first two Copa America matches.

If Gregg Berhalter instead turns to pressing specialist Brenden Aaronson to replace Weah (which would be a poor decision), it will only make Pulisic a larger focal point of the U.S. counter on his regular left side.

USA vs. Uruguay live stream, TV channel

This Copa America group-stage match will be televised in the United States on FS1, which can be streamed on Fubo, who are offering a FREE trial for new users. A Spanish-language broadcast is also available on both TUDN and Univision, which are also streamed on Fubo and accessible via the free trial.

In Canada, this game will be shown across multiple TSN channels, with a French-language broadcast available on RDS 2.

In the U.K., 2024 Copa America matches are broadcast and streamed by Premier Sports.