Team USA got off to an impressive start in their quest to repeat as gold medalists in Olympic Men’s Basketball when it trounced World No.4 Serbia in its opening game. 

Kevin Durant was lethal, and Team USA vs. South Sudan predictions expect Kevin Durant to continue his stellar offensive play.

South Sudan made Olympic history with its opening game win over Puerto Rico and will attempt to shock the world yet again as it faces off against this star-studded American roster on July 31.

USA vs South Sudan prediction

My best bet
Kevin Durant Over 14.5 points (-115)

My analysis

If you were going to design a player in a lab to play FIBA-style basketball, you couldn’t possibly do any better than Kevin Durant. 

Durant remains an offensive cheat code. His height (whether you believe he’s 7-foot-tall or closer to the 6-foot-9 he claims) combined with the elevation on his jumper makes him virtually unblockable, even for a South Sudan team that sports real length at the forward sports.

And as seen during his stint with the Golden State Warriors, he’s a force multiplier on offense — he makes bad teams good and makes elite teams even better.

KD walked into the first game of Team USA’s Olympic tournament, coming off a calf injury, not having played competitive basketball since April, and proceeded to hit his first eight straight shots. Even his teammates, a group littered with MVP trophies, championship banners, and All-NBA honors, were slack-jawed in disbelief. KD finished with a cool 23 points on 8-9 from the field, and only the game becoming a total rout in the second half prevented him from scoring more.

Durant is the most accomplished player in Team USA Men’s Basketball history. He takes his responsibility to the program more seriously than any star of his caliber ever has, and he’s consistently produced at an elite level.

Durant always takes the chance to suit up, including leading Team USA to gold during the Covid-marred Olympics in Tokyo. That was a pretty miserable Olympics to compete in by all accounts, playing under heavy isolation restrictions, testing, and with no fans. But KD played and balled out.

As such, you can count on him never to phone in one of these games, no matter how in the bag or low stakes they might appear on the surface. While South Sudan made a good showing in the exhibition game, this is still projected to be a massive blowout. 

But Durant’s minutes are least likely to be cut short. He needs the court time after such a long layoff, and Steve Kerr will want to try him with different groups ahead of more challenging competition.

Embiid’s game not traveling 

My Joel Embiid prop: Under 11.5 points (-112)

In 2023-24, Joel Embiid was just the second player ever to finish with more points than minutes played in an NBA season. He won the MVP the season prior and has routinely been one of the most dominant scorers every year since he entered the league. So, it was considered a major coup for USA Basketball when they successfully recruited Embiid, a naturalized American citizen, to join the team over France or Cameroon.

But the results have not gone as anyone might have expected. Embiid became the target of much fan ire for his performances in the exhibitions and the opening game of group play. In part, this seems to stem from FIBA officials being much less inclined to reward the kind of foul-baiting that’s a cornerstone of Joel’s game. 

But Joel is not a player who relies exclusively on fouls to be effective, so it’s been jarring to watch that adjustment seemingly throw him off other aspects of his offense, including his usually-automatic midrange jumper.

Some players struggle in a FIBA rules environment, and superstars often struggle to maintain their impact and efficiency when asked to do less on offense. Embiid hasn’t been anything but the centerpiece of a team’s offense since he played at Kansas, and the adjustment has gone poorly for him. With Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo thriving, Embiid saw his minutes cut to just 11 against Serbia, the fewest of any American player who saw the floor.

USA vs South Sudan same-game parlay (SGP)

South Sudan was as high as 44.5-point underdogs ahead of their exhibition matchup against Team USA, and it took a LeBron James layup with under 10 seconds to go to seal the deal for Team USA. That near-upset was South Sudan’s greatest basketball achievement until they notched their first Olympic win in program history against Puerto Rico.

But the line adjustment ahead of the rematch against Team USA has been way too dramatic. While there is more difficulty in projecting international basketball compared to league play, there’s a reason that Team USA had a near-45-point edge in the original projections.

What reason is there now for making a 16-point move in favor of the Sudanese side? I don’t think their talent was so drastically misread by oddsmakers in the first place, and the story of the game against Team USA was largely one of shot variance. South Sudan made its threes at a high clip, and Team USA struggled; that’s not something I expect to continue on Wednesday.

Furthermore, Team USA is getting Durant in the lineup for this rematch, and with him in the fold their best lineups and, by extension, bench units are just way more potent on both ends. 

While South Sudan has a lot to be proud of with its play both during the exhibitions and now in the Olympics proper, I think this movement is a drastic overcorrection given the talent disparity between these two teams.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

USA vs South Sudan odds

Odds as of 7-31.

USA vs South Sudan game info

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