In 2021, China came within a single victory of tying the USA for the most gold medals at that year’s Games. Is this the year the Americans lose top spot?

The short answer: Possibly, but probably not.

The count of total medals most likely won’t be in dispute. In Tokyo, the USA had 113 medals to China’s 89. In 2016, the margin was even wider – 121 to 70. Even when China hosted in 2008, the USA had more total medals (112 to 100). But China had more gold medals than the US in 2008 (48-36), and after a down year in 2016 – China had 26 golds, Great Britain had 27, and the USA had 46 – China rebounded in 2021 with 38 gold medals to the USA’s 39.

If we build trend lines based on the last two Summer Olympics, China would fly past the USA in Paris. Right?

Let’s look a little deeper.

After inputting results and rankings from the past three years along with other historical data, the projection is:

Gold medals: USA 48.28, China 39.78

Total medals: USA 126.10, China 93.38

Rounding those numbers into actual predictions for each event so that we don’t have to decide who gets 28% of a gold medal, but still based on the same calculations, the gaps become:

Gold medals: USA 42, China 29

Total medals: USA 123, China 92

How could that be? Essentially, China have less of an upside. They’re nearly perfect in diving and table tennis, to the point at which they simply can’t improve very much – there are very few gold medals for Chinese athletes to win in those events. The USA, on the other hand, have a lot of returning silver and bronze medalists with a chance for an upgrade to gold.

Over the past three years, US athletes have proven themselves to be contenders. In an unofficial count, the USA have 57 athletes or teams headed to Paris who are either current world champions or ranked No 1 in their events; China have 48.

All that said, Gracenote’s Virtual Medal Table has similar numbers for total medals (USA 123-87 China) but shows a much closer race in the gold-medal column (USA 37-36 China, with Great Britain, France and Australia to finish third, fourth and fifth respectively).

How could that be?

The flip side of having a bigger upside is that Team USA’s medals aren’t certain. The USA have the potential to win as many as 50 gold medals, but a few mistakes here and there could leave them in the 30s, within China’s striking range.

And given the structure of schedule in Paris, China may race out to an early lead. But the USA should be able to chip away through the last seven days of the Games.

Here’s how the battle for Olympic supremacy will play out:

Swimming (first week): The USA may never have had such an accomplished roster in the pool. Not only are household names like Katie Ledecky and Caeleb Dressel returning, but also several others who won multiple medals in Tokyo – Bobby Finke, Ryan Murphy, Regan Smith, and Lilly King. But the Americans will be trying to replicate or improve upon their staggering totals of 11 gold medals and 30 total in Tokyo, a tough task against feistier challenges from Australia, Europe, Canada – and China. Li Bingjie, Xu Jiayu, Qin Haiyang, Zhang Yufei and freestyle phenom Pan Zhanle are all but certain to make sure China improve upon the team’s 2021 haul of six medals and have a strong shot at exceeding the Tokyo total of three golds.

Gymnastics (first week): China’s Zhang Boheng is the men’s all-around favorite and could leave the mat with several medals in hand. But the USA put up a solid showing in Tokyo even with Simone Biles struggling. The GOAT is back and arguably better than ever, and Tokyo all-around champion Sunisa Lee and floor exercise gold medalist Jade Carey return as well. The men’s team, which had fallen off the pace in recent Games, has 20-year-old sensation Fred Richards and several Olympic veterans who will contend. China may improve on their 2021 total of three gold medals, but the USA will certainly better their total of two from Tokyo.

Other first-week events: China excel in shooting and may match their total of four gold medals (11 total) in Tokyo, while the USA will struggle to duplicate their haul of three gold medals (six total). China will also start to pile up honors in diving, which is spread out through the Olympic schedule. The US rowers will be eager to contribute to the medal count after a startling shutout in Tokyo.

Athletics/track and field (second week): A few proven winners, including Athing Mu and Keni Harrison, failed to make the team in the crucible of the US Olympic trials. But this team should only improve from Tokyo, where the USA took seven gold medals (26 total). Noah Lyles and Sha’Carri Richardson have garnered the most attention from their performances since Tokyo, but the USA return many athletes who silver or gold last time around – including Grant Holloway (110m hurdles), Rai Benjamin (400m hurdles), Chris Nilsen (pole vault), Sydney McLaughlin-Levrone (400m hurdles), Katie Moon (pole vault), Raven Saunders (shot put), and Valarie Allman (discus). Then the 1-2 punch of Tokyo gold medalist Ryan Crouser and silver winner Joe Kovacs make the men’s shot put one of the surest bets in the Games outside any Chinese diver or table tennis player. If the USA lose any of these medals, they probably won’t be lost to Chinese athletes, who took two gold medals in Tokyo but may leave Paris with none.

Other second-week events: The USA should clean up in women’s team sports – basketball, water polo, and both types of volleyball. The reconstructed women’s soccer team can’t be counted out, either. The USA will also return to the wrestling mat with high expectations. They roster has had some turnover since winning three golds (nine medals) in Tokyo but has breakout stars such as Amit Elor and Aaron Brooks joining reliable contenders such as Kyle Dake, Kyle Snyder, Sarah Hildebrandt and Helen Maroulis. US skateboarders could sweep the men’s park event and get another medal in the women’s park. The Chinese team aren’t poised to match any of that.

BEST BETS FOR US GAINS (gold medals only)

Athletics: men’s 110m hurdles

Athletics: men’s 200m

Athletics: women’s shot put

Swimming: women’s 200m medley

Athletics: men’s 100m

BMX cycling: women’s park

Swimming: men’s 100m backstroke

Breaking: men’s (new event)

Skateboarding: men’s park

Gymnastics: women’s team

BEST BETS FOR US REPEATS

Athletics: men’s shot put

Basketball: women’s

Swimming: women’s 1500m freestyle

Athletics: women’s 400m hurdles

Swimming: women’s 800m freestyle

Athletics: women’s pole vault

Surfing: women’s

Athletics: men’s 4x400m relay

Gymnastics: women’s all-around

Water polo: women’s

LEAST LIKELY US REPEATS

Taekwondo: women’s 57kg

Shooting: men’s 10m air rifle

Fencing: women’s foil

Shooting: women’s skeet

Athletics: women’s 800m

Swimming: men’s 100m freestyle

Golf: women’s

Canoe sprint: women’s 200m single canoe

BEST BETS FOR CHINESE GAINS (gold medals only)

Diving: men’s synchronized platform

Trampoline: men’s

Table tennis: mixed doubles

Artistic swimming: team

Gymnastics: men’s team

Shooting: men’s 25m rapid-fire pistol

BEST BETS FOR CHINESE REPEATS

Table tennis: women’s team

Diving: women’s synchronized platform

Table tennis: men’s team

Diving: men’s synchronized platform

Diving: women’s platform

Weightlifting: men’s 61kg

Diving: men’s platform

Canoe sprint: women’s 500m double canoe

Diving: women’s synchronized platform

Table tennis: women’s singles

LEAST LIKELY CHINESE REPEATS

Weightlifting: men’s 67kg (discontinued)

Weightlifting: men’s 81kg (discontinued)

Weightlifting: women’s 87kg (discontinued)

Athletics: women’s javelin

Sailing: women’s windsurfing

Shooting: men’s 50m three-position rifle

Swimming: women’s 200m butterfly

Gymnastics: women’s balance beam

Badminton: women’s singles

Fencing: women’s epee