Can the Atlanta Falcons overtake the other three NFC South teams and return to the postseason for the first time since 2017? That was the idea when they signed free-agent quarterback Kirk Cousins on the first day of the new league year.

Cousins hasn’t exactly been a beacon of playoff success over his 12-year NFL career, but he represents a major improvement at the quarterback position. Considering the team has finished with a 7-10 record in three consecutive seasons, perhaps the veteran QB will finally put Atlanta over the top in 2024.

USA TODAY’s Nate Davis released his 2024 NFL record projections for all 32 teams on Monday. The Falcons are projected to finish 9-8 and win the NFC South in USA TODAY’s projections:

Their superflex approach to roster building will doubtless draw further scrutiny during camp and preseason given the likelihood first-round QB Michael Penix Jr. will flash mobility and arm strength Cousins could only dream of. But the Falcons didn’t sign the veteran to a four-year, $180 million deal without the expectation he’d significantly upgrade a position that began to betray the team when Matt Ryan went into decline in 2021, his final year in the ATL. The Falcons have plenty of talent, a new coach (Raheem Morris) who was hired over Belichick and has been consistently praised by his players elsewhere and the benefit of the league’s weakest schedule. Between Week 3 and 9, the team will play five home games and face all of its divisional foes – a stretch that could launch Atlanta to its first NFC South crown since 2016. — Nate Davis, USA TODAY

The New Orleans Saints and Tampa Bay Buccaneers were each projected to finish 8-9 this season, tying for second place in the division and missing the playoffs. The Falcons are then projected to lose to the Detroit Lions in the wild-card round of the playoffs. Davis has the New York Jets defeating the Green Bay Packers to win the Super Bowl.

Atlanta’s offense is sure to be improved, but did the team do enough on the defensive side of the ball? The Falcons lost Calais Campbell, Bud Dupree and Jeff Okudah over the offseason. While the team drafted replacements for Campbell and Dupree, there’s still some uncertainty in the secondary.

Either way, the Falcons have more stability at quarterback, which gives them a higher ceiling for 2024. We’ll see how the defense holds up when they take on the high-powered offenses of the Kansas City Chiefs and Philadelphia Eagles in the first month of the season.