USA Today writer, Nate Davis, released his 2024 NFL record projections on Monday, and I have some notes.

First thing of note, is my reaction, which words fail to describe, so instead here is Clint Eastwood’s face, which perfectly sums it up:

As a matter of fact, I think I’ll just stick with the theme and do a 3 part breakdown of Nate’s projections, giving a little wink to the classic spaghetti western, Il Buono, Il Brutto, Il Cattivo.

The Good

It’s not all bad, really. Looking at his history of projections over the last few seasons, Nate’s had some real nice calls, like taking the Lions to win the NFC North at 11-6 in 2023, though they would actually go 12-5. He also predicted them losing in the NFC championship round, which they did, although they lost to the San Francisco 49ers rather than the Philadelphia Eagles. Also worth noting, he projected the Eagles at 12-5 and the 49ers 11-6, which of course, he just got backwards. He also projected the Seahawks to go 10-7 in 2023, and if we’re being honest, it kind of feels like he got screwed on that one. In general, Nate seems to do really well figuring out who the top half of the league is each year, and making vague, reasonable guesses on what their records might be. We all know what they say about blind squirrels and broken clocks, though.

The Bad

Dude, seriously? The New York Jets over the Green Bay Packers in the Super Bowl?! Did Nate go on a retreat with Aaron Rodgers over the offseason, or something? The Indianapolis Colts winning the AFC South? Okay, I think they can be threatening if Anthony Richardson stays healthy, but to think the Colts AND the Jacksonville Jaguars are somehow better than the Houston Texans, who added Stefon Diggs, Danielle Hunter, and Denico Autry this offseason, is a Colin Cowherd-tier hot take.

The Ugly

Finally, the elephant in the room. In 2022, following the trade of Russell Wilson, and the release of Bobby Wagner, Nate projected the Seattle Seahawks to finish 5-12. At the time, I think that was a reasonable projection before the inevitability of Geno Smith and the revelation of some talented newcomers ran the win total up to 10. This year, his 5-12 projection for Seattle is downright insulting, and a clear admission that he hasn’t been paying attention. His arguments of new coaching, new culture, and last season’s ineptitude at stopping the run are uninspired and show a surface level understanding of the situation at best. He also falls well short of acknowledging the wildly potent offense that appears to have improved its offensive line, and the scrappy young defense with a revamped defensive line that only needs to not completely suck in order to improve upon 2023. I mean, come on man, at least mention the inside linebacker situation to show a little credibility. On the bright side, even he knows we’re better than the Denver Broncos.

Let us know in the comment section below, how do you feel about Nate’s projections?