World No. 1 Scottie Scheffler is at the very peak of his playing form coming into this week and is hoping to capitalize on that form to capture his first U.S. Open win. The field of 156 golfers will be hoping to keep Scheffler from adding another trophy to his mantle this week. The top 60 and ties will make it to the weekend.

But let’s not forget: The USGA prides itself on setting up its major championships to be extremely difficult yet fair. Every few years, a long shot steps up to throw a wrench into the plans of the top players in the world.

Michael Campbell stared down Tiger Woods at the height of his powers in 2005 and won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2, the site of this year’s tournament. Wyndham Clark won the U.S. Open at Los Angeles Country Club last year as a 100-1 longshot who had never finished better than 75th at a major championship. Confidence, resilience and a hot short game go a long way at U.S. Opens.

Jack Nicklaus won the U.S. Open four times, tying Bobby Jones and Willie Anderson for the most-ever U.S. Open victories. His last win came at Baltusrol in 1980 when he was nearing the end of his peak years on the PGA Tour.

Martin Kaymer won the 2014 U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 by using an unorthodox technique of putting from almost everywhere off the greens. He was the only one to really tame the golf course that year as he finished 9-under as a 45-1 option at most books.

I expect players to come out to the golf course with definitive plans on how they are going to attack and minimize mistakes on this golf course. I think some players with very high betting odds will be in contention this week, and I am hoping to have them on my card for the chance at a win or a late hedge while live betting.

Odds are from BetMGM.

Long shots

Sam Burns (+7500) has three top-15 finishes in his last four tournaments, but he has struggled at major championships during his career. He has gained over 6.7 strokes combined around the green over his last three tournaments. I think this course sets up the best for him out of the major championships he has participated in. He has finished T32 and 27th the last two years at the U.S. Open and he has gained over nine strokes combined with the putter in his last three U.S. Opens.

Min Woo Lee (+8000) has gained more than 4.4 strokes ball-striking in three of his last four events. He gained over 6.3 strokes with his short game at the PGA Championship and finished fifth at the U.S. Open in 2023. Lee is built for big moments, and he has an imagination around the greens. Playing a practice round with Tiger Woods this week could be a lucky charm.

Sepp Straka (+8000) has three top-five finishes in his last six events. He has struggled a bit in major championships, but his current form is too good to ignore. I love that he has gained over 3.2 strokes around the green in each of his last two events.

Keegan Bradley (+9000) was hot going into the Memorial, gaining over 11.7 strokes off the tee in his previous two tournaments and over three strokes on approach in the four tournaments prior to the Charles Schwab Challenge. He finished seventh at the U.S. Open in 2022 after gaining over 10.9 strokes on approach for the week. I love that he has gained over four strokes putting the last two weeks and that he played well here in 2014, finishing T4.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+12000) has gained strokes with his short game in 11 straight tournaments. He has gained strokes on approach in three out of his last four golf tournaments and contended last week at the Memorial, finishing fourth. He has made the cut in his only two trips to the U.S. Open, and he has gained over six strokes combined with his putter in the last two tournaments.

Prop bets

Tiger Woods to miss the cut (-330)
Tiger Woods hasn’t competed at a U.S. Open since 2020, when he missed the cut. He hasn’t been competitive on a golf course since he finished T45 at the Genesis Invitational in 2023. He can still drive the ball well, but the rest of his game really struggles once the competition heats up.

Scottie Scheffler top five (-150)
Scheffler has finished first or second in seven out of his last eight tournaments. He’s on an incredible run of form and has been knocking on the door of his first U.S. Open win in the last few years, finishing second and third.

Xander Schauffele top 20 (-200)
Schauffele struggled with his irons a bit last week at the Memorial and still finished T8 because he gained over eight strokes with his putter. He has gained over 13 strokes with his putter combined in his last two tournaments. He hasn’t finished outside of the top 17 in any of his trips to the U.S. Open.

Hole in one on the Par 3 ninth hole (+500)
The ninth hole is the shortest and easiest of the Par 3s at Pinehurst No. 2. There has been a hole-in-one at No. 9 each of the last two U.S. Opens played at Pinehurst No. 2, with Peter Jacobson pulling it off in 2005 and Zach Johnson jarring it in 2014.

Top debutant: Harry Higgs (+1600)
Higgs won twice on the Korn Ferry Tour in his last three tournaments. He finished T4 in his first appearance at the PGA Championship and T14 in his first appearance at the Masters. He has a big personality that thrives when the lights are on. Ludvig Åberg is the heavy favorite in this category.

Top Japanese player: Hideki Matsuyama (-125)
Matsuyama finished T35 here in 2014 and has only missed one cut at a U.S. Open in 10 tries. He has six top-21 finishes in his 10 trips to the U.S. Open.

Top South African: Christiaan Bezuidenhout (+150)
Bezuidenhout was a tight call over Dean Burmester at the same odds. I like that Bezuidenhout has U.S. Open experience and comes into this week in good form with his ball-striking and his incredible short game.

Top French player: Victor Perez (-165)
Perez only has to beat out Matthieu Pavon to cash this ticket. Pavon was hot to start the year on the PGA Tour but has fallen off terribly of late. He has lost strokes in every major category since the Wells Fargo Championship. Perez has been hot with his irons and his putter.

Top Canadian player: Mackenzie Hughes (+500)
Hughes has three top-seven finishes in his last eight golf tournaments. There is volatility baked into his golf game as he can lose his swing off the tee or from the fairway at any moment. His short game travels with him everywhere. He has gained strokes with his putter in eight straight tournaments. He has made the cut in three straight U.S. Opens while gaining over 11.7 strokes with his putter over those three tournaments.

Winner in the final grouping (-250)
Martin Kaymer and Michael Campbell both won the U.S. Open at Pinehurst No. 2 while playing in the final group. The final four holes at Pinehurst No. 2 all play more than .2 strokes over par, so a big comeback late is a difficult task.

(Photo of Harry Higgs: Brennan Asplen / Getty Images)