Admin November 28, 2024
NFL Week 13 picks: Colts, Broncos, and Seahawks
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for NFL Week 13 games, including Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The Miami Dolphins are trying to make a late-season playoff push in 2024 and enter their Thanksgiving matchup with the Green Bay Packers having won three consecutive games.
Miami is now just a game and a half back of the No. 7 seed in the AFC wild-card standings and may be able to sneak in if the Dolphins can continue to win.
To do that, the Dolphins will need to stay hot despite playing in some cold-weather games. That’s something the team has struggled to do throughout its history, especially with Tua Tagovailoa as the team’s starting quarterback.
Tagovailoa has yet to win an NFL game during which the starting temperature was below 45 degrees. His performance in those contests has left a lot to be desired, so much so that he addressed it ahead of his Week 13 game against the Packers.
“I’m excited to kill narratives,” Tagovailoa told reporters while referencing his unimpressive cold-weather stats. “Let’s go. Bring it on.”
Here’s what to know about Tagovailoa’s career stats in cold-weather games as he prepares for another one at Lambeau Field on Thanksgiving.
Tua Tagovailoa cold weather stats
Tagovailoa has played in seven games with a listed temperature of 45 degrees or lower, according to data from Pro Football Reference.
Tagovailoa has an 0-7 record in those contests. His other stats aren’t much better, as can be seen below.
- Completion rate: 135-of-243 (55.6%)
- Passing yards: 1,687
- Passing TDs: 8
- INTs: 10
- Yards/attempt: 6.9
- Passer rating: 71.13
Tagovailoa’s average of 241 passing yards per game in those cold-weather contests is respectable, but he has struggled to consistently lead his team to points. The Dolphins are averaging 16.4 points per game in those cold-weather games while allowing 32.4 points per game.
Tagovailoa has also logged more touchdown passes than interceptions in just two of his seven outings in sub-45-degree weather.
Tua Tagovailoa stats in all other games
Perhaps the most shocking part of Tagovailoa’s drop-off in cold weather is his performance in all other games.
Tagovailoa has appeared in 54 career games (52 starts) that have not seen the temperature dip below 45 degrees. In those contests, he has a record of 36-16 and a passer rating 30 points higher than his cold-weather rating.
Below are Tagovailoa’s full stats from those contests:
- Completion rate: 1,151-of-1,666 (69.1%)
- Passing yards: 12,911
- Passing TDs: 87
- INTs: 32
- Yards/attempt: 7.7
- Passer rating: 101.35
For those wondering, Tagovailoa is averaging 239.1 passing yards per game in this contests, just 1.9 yards per game less than what he is averaging in the cold-weather games. He is doing that with significantly better rating stats, so it’s abundantly clear that Tagovailoa prefers warmer conditions.
In many ways, that makes Tagovailoa an ideal fit as Miami’s quarterback. But to reach the team’s goal of contending for a Super Bowl, the Dolphins will need him to step his game up when temperatures drop.
Tagovailoa will have a chance to prove himself in that regard on Thanksgiving.
Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving weather forecast
It’s going to be cold during the Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving game, according to Weather.com.
Below are the full details of Thursday’s forecast for Green Bay:
- High temperature: 32 degrees
- Low temperature: 19 degrees
- Chance of precipitation: 3%
- Wind: 10-15 mph
The Dolphins have won just one game in the last 32 years when the temperature drops below 23 degrees. That will leave Miami fans hoping the temperature can remain on the higher end of the provided range until the contest is complete.