Top Group of Five CFP contenders: Odds, best chances at 12-team College Football Playoff

Admin November 8, 2024

At least one Group of Five program will have a chance to compete on the national stage in the 2024 college football season.

With the new 12-team College Football Playoff bracket, the five highest ranked conference champions receive automatic bids in the playoff. Boise State currently leads Group of Five contenders, as it was ranked No. 12 in the first CFP rankings release and is the favorite to win the Mountain West.

There are a number of teams still in contention for a spot in the CFP, with some currently in better shape than others.

Here are the top Group of Five contenders for the College Football Playoff, including their paths to competing for a national championship this season:

Top Group of Five CFP contenders

Boise State

No. 14 Boise State (7-1) currently leads the field of Group of Five contenders, as the Broncos came in at No. 12 in the first College Football Playoff rankings.

Boise State, led by Heisman Trophy contender Ashton Jeanty, has a clear path to the 12-team bracket, as it has only one loss and it was a close matchup with No. 1 Oregon. It also doesn’t play a ranked team the rest of the season, excluding the Mountain West Championship game.

If Boise State wins out, it’ll likely have a spot in the CFP.

Army

The undefeated Black Knights have a real shot at making the 2024 College Football Playoff.

No. 19 Army (8-0), who came in at No. 25 in the first rankings, will likely need some help, however, in the form of a Boise State, who’s currently ranked higher in the CFP rankings. Army is likely going to need to go undefeated with Boise State losing another game to have a chance at the bracket.

The Black Knights have a tough schedule ahead, as they still have to face Notre Dame and whoever their potential American Athletic Conference Championship foe would be, should they make the conference championship. Their game against Navy after conference championship week will not count toward CFP rankings.

UNLV

UNLV fell to Boise State earlier in the season, 29-24, and also lost to Syracuse 44-41 in a nonconference matchup. The CFP race isn’t over for the Rebels (6-2, 2-1), however.

UNLV could potentially play Boise State in the Mountain West Championship game, giving it a chance to avenge its loss and also knock Boise State out of contention as the Broncos wouldn’t win the conference. The Rebels could have one of the better chances to make the CFP with their potential matchup with Boise State, despite not being ranked in the initial CFP top 25.

UNLV closes its regular season with games against Hawaii, San Diego State, San Jose State and Nevada, and will need to fight off Colorado State and San Diego State, who are 4-0 and 2-1 in conference play, respectively.

Tulane

Another AAC program, Tulane (7-2) has two losses this season, but both have come against Power Four programs in Oklahoma and Kansas State.

The Green Wave has been dominant in conference play, however, sporting a 5-0 conference record with double-digit wins in all but one of those victories. Tulane has remaining games against Temple, Navy and Memphis, with a potential AAC Championship game matchup with Army, another CFP contender.

Tulane, like Army, will likely need Boise State to lose another game to have a shot at the 12-team bracket.

Louisiana

The Ragin’ Cajuns (7-1) have only lost to Tulane but have otherwise been one of the best Group of Five teams in the country this season. However, they’re going to likely need chaos to make the College Football Playoff.

Louisiana would likely need Boise State and Army to lose games, potentially multiple, along with Tulane also falling, as the Green Wave hold a head-to-head edge over the Cajuns.

We’ve seen crazier things happen in college football, though, and Louisiana will certainly need to win out to have a chance.