Admin December 5, 2024
Bills secure AFC East, Ravens continue with self-inflicted wounds
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the top storylines from Week 13 in the NFL.
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The Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers bookended Thanksgiving Day by both earning short-week wins at home. Seven days later, the two will square off in a battle that will determine exactly how much control Detroit has over the NFC North.
The Lions enter their Week 14 matchup tied with the Kansas City Chiefs for the best record in the NFL at 11-1. Detroit has won a franchise record 10 consecutive games but will face a stiff test against a Green Bay team that has often given it trouble.
The Packers (9-3) will aim to accomplish two goals in Week 14. Their main one will be to win and keep pace with the Lions and the 10-2 Minnesota Vikings in a stacked NFC North race. The post-Thanksgiving side dish will be to get revenge on the Lions for beating them at Lambeau Field in Week 9 when quarterback Jordan Love was playing through a groin injury.
Detroit and Green Bay sport two of the league’s best scoring offenses. The Lions average a league-high 31.9 points per game while the Packers rank eighth with a 26.5 point per game average. That will excite bettors who prefer to back the over on player props and hunt for value on anytime touchdown scorers.
What are the best bets for “Thursday Night Football?” Here are some props and anytime TD bets to consider for “TNF’s” Week 14 NFC North battle.
Thursday Night Football best bets
All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.
Jordan Love OVER 248.5 passing yards (-115)
Love has made three career starts against the Lions in his career. Below is a look at his passing stat lines from those games:
- Week 4, 2023: 23-of-36 passing, 246 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs
- Week 12, 2023: 22-of-32 passing, 268 yards, 3 TDs, 0 INTs
- Week 9, 2024: 23-of-39 passing, 273 yards, 0 TDs, 1 INT
Love only came up short of the 249 yards needed to exceed this rather low over/under total in his first start against the Lions, which was also just his fifth career NFL start. Even so, he came close to exceeding the total, so he should have a chance to do so in Week 14.
Also of note, the 2024 Lions have allowed all but one quarterback that has faced them to attempt at least 27 passes. Love has attempted at least 27 passes in six games this season; in five of those, he has logged at least 250 passing yards.
If both trends continue, Love should have a strong chance to hit the over in what could be a high-scoring game.
Jahmyr Gibbs OVER 68.5 rushing yards (-115)
Gibbs only received nine carries on Thanksgiving, so that may scare some off his over rushing total. His small workload on Turkey Day was likely related to his 21-carry performance in Week 12 against the Indianapolis Colts.
Gibbs had just three days of recovery before Detroit’s Thanksgiving afternoon matchup, and his 21 carries were the second-most he had logged in a game during his career. Dan Campbell may have been trying to protect his star, young running back from being overworked as the Lions look to make a Super Bowl run, so it seems likely that Gibbs will get more work on normal rest.
Even if not, Gibbs will still have a chance to go over his relatively low rushing total, just as he did on Thanksgiving (87 yards on nine carries). The Packers let him run for 65 yards on 11 carries in their last meeting at a rain-soaked Lambeau Field. A similar workload in more favorable conditions at Detroit’s domed stadium should be enough to get Gibbs the 70-odd yards he needs to make bettors happy.
Jayden Reed anytime TD (+145)
The Lions have allowed just nine total touchdowns to wide receivers this year, but they tend to have a tougher time guarding receivers who play primarily in the slot. This was evidenced by Keenan Allen‘s two-touchdown performance against them on Thanksgiving and their early-season scores allowed to Cooper Kupp and Chris Godwin.
Reed is the Packers’ primary slot receiver and has seen an uptick in red-zone targets over Green Bay’s last two games. He has scored three times on those five red-zone targets and had a chance to score a deep-ball touchdown against the Miami Dolphins in Week 13 had Love not overthrown him in sub-freezing conditions.
This may feel like chasing points given the Packers’ ever-changing pecking order at receiver, but Reed appears to be a key part of Matt LaFleur’s game near the goal line. It’s worth watching Romeo Doubs‘ status as he looks to return from a concussion, but even if he plays, Reed should have a chance to score in a potential pass-heavy game for the Packers.
Sam LaPorta anytime TD (+175)
LaPorta has racked up nine red-zone targets for the Lions thus far during the 2024 NFL season. That’s good for the second-most on the team, behind only Amon-Ra St. Brown (16).
Over the last four games, LaPorta has outperformed St. Brown in the red zone, seeing more targets and catching more touchdowns than his counterpart. Below is a comparison between the duo’s red-zone stats from the last four games.
Sam LaPorta red-zone stats since Week 10
- Targets: 6
- Catches: 3
- Receiving yards: 24
- Receiving TDs: 3
Amon-Ra St. Brown red-zone stats since Week 10
- Targets: 5
- Catches: 4
- Receiving yards: 37
- Receiving TDs: 2
The Packers are tied with the fifth-most receptions allowed to tight ends this season, so LaPorta’s +175 odds to catch a touchdown look like a good value compared to those of St. Brown (+100).