Euro 2024 gets its first truly marquee matchup of the group stage as Spain and Italy meet for a top 10 clash in Group B play Thursday in Gelsenkirchen.

Between these two opponents are five European championships, including three of the last four, with Italy serving as defending champions this year and Spain boasting the only back-to-back Euro titles, in 2008 and 2012.

Both sides got off to winning starts, with eighth-ranked Spain surprising an aging Croatia side in a 3-0 victory and ninth-ranked Italy outlasting plucky Albania, 2-1.

The two scorelines were both finalized by halftime, but it was far more comfortable for Spain, who had cruised to their three-goal lead by halftime. Italy, meanwhile, had to come back from conceding the earliest goal in Euro history before gritting out the rest of the match with the slim advantage.

Spain has won the last two between the two nations, but Italy triumphed on penalties in the Euro 2020 semifinals en route to the title. The Italians have not beaten Spain outright in regulation, however, since a 2-0 victory at Euro 2016, a run of five straight winless meetings.

Spain vs. Italy prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Spain (+120)
• Score prediction: Spain 3-1 Italy

There is, quite simply, a talent disparity between these two sides that should play out on the pitch throughout these 90 minutes. While Italy have a few players like Nicolo Barella who might sniff the Spain side, a combined XI between these two teams would be largely dominated by the favorites.

They also have the form entering this match, as Spain clobbered a quality Croatia team in their opener while Italy looked vulnerable when pressed by Albania. If Italy can manage to frustrate Spain into submission, and force Rodri into one of his trademark “the best team didn’t win today” post-match rants, they might have a chance, but that’s an uphill battle against this in-form team.

Spain vs. Italy match facts

• Date: Wednesday, June 20, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (3 p.m. ET / 12 p.m. PT)
• Location: Veltins-Arena (Gelsenkirchen, Germany)
• Referee: TBD
• Last meeting: Spain 2-1 Italy (June 15, 2023 | UEFA Nations League)

Spain vs. Italy best bet

• Pick: Over 2.5 total goals
• Odds: +120 (BetMGM)

There’s absolutely no reason to suggest this match will end with a deflated score, and the plus odds are a generous gift in today’s betting landscape where overs are often devoid of value.

From every angle this game looks like it will be full of goals. Starting with the favorites, Spain have scored a combined 13 goals in their last three games, unloading for five against each of their pre-tournament friendly opponents Northern Ireland and Andorra before putting three by a defensively sound Croatia.

Sure, Italy have not conceded many goals of late, but they’ve given up eight in their last four against this very opponent, including multiple goals in three of those. They were pressured hard by Albania in their opener and looked vulnerable, and they have not faced a truly quality attacking since since falling 3-1 to England in Euro qualifying last October.

Finally, Euro 2024 has seen goals flying early and often, as only four of the first 10 matches in this competition have gone under 2.5 goals, a significant amount of overs hitting for international football, which can oftentimes be lacking for goals compared to the club level. Hammer this, it’s a massive opportunity.

Spain vs. Italy prop bet

• Pick: Alvaro Morata anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +150 (BetMGM)

Few players thrive at the European Championship like Alvaro Morata, who rose to third on the competition’s all-time leading goal-scorers list by finding the net in the opener against Croatia, with now seven Euro goals in just 11 career games.

Morata, 31, has bagged a goal in four of his last six Euro games, with that stretch including his team’s only goal in the 1-1 draw against Italy in the Euro 2020 semifinals, before seeing his decisive penalty saved by Gianluigi Donnarumma in the eventual shootout.

He will be itching for revenge, especially after he saw an incredible seven efforts fail to find the back of the net the last time these two teams matched up in the Nations League semifinals, with three of those efforts on target but saved by his nemesis Donnarumma.

Spain vs. Italy live stream, TV channel

This premier Euro 2024 group stage match between Italy and Spain will be televised in the United States on FOX, which can be found streaming on Fubo who are offering a free trial for new users. The match will also be found on Fox’s in-house streaming platform Fox Sports GO, while a Spanish-language broadcast is available on streaming service ViX.

In Canada, this match will be televised on TSN1, TSN3 and TSN4, plus a French broadcast can be accessed on TVA Sports. Both networks offering live streaming options on their dedicated platforms. Finally, fans can also access matches for Italy, Portugal and Spain on TLN.

In the UK, Euro 2024 matches are split between ITV and the BBC. This match will be televised by ITV, with streaming on their dedicated platform ITVX.