Admin November 24, 2024
NFL Week 12 picks: Why you should consider Broncos and Lions on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for Sunday’s games.
The NFL is sending its ending its final pre-Thanksgiving Sunday slate in style with a matchup between two teams vying for their respective division titles.
The NFC East-leading Philadelphia Eagles (8-2) are traveling west to take on the Los Angeles Rams (5-5), who are among the logjam of teams fighting for the NFC West crown, on “Sunday Night Football” in Week 12. The matchup pits two of the NFC’s three most recent Super Bowl participants against one another in a contest that could drastically alter the NFC’s playoff picture.
The Eagles are on a six-game winning streak and took control of the NFC East in Week 11 with their “Thursday Night Football” win over the Washington Commanders. Vic Fangio has Philadelphia’s defense playing at one of the highest levels in the league, but the Eagles will face a tough task in trying to slow down Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua.
As for the Rams, they are coming off a narrow victory over the New England Patriots during which their passing offense exploded. That said, neither their offense nor their defense has been consistent this season. Los Angeles has shown flashes on both sides of the ball, especially with first-round pass rusher Jared Verse, but the Rams will have to bring their A-game to compete with Philadelphia on both sides of the ball.
The strength-on-strength matchup of the Rams’ skill position players against the Eagles’ young, improving secondary should create some intriguing betting opportunities for NFL fans. There figures to be a few touchdowns scored in this “SNF” game as well, and there are some good value bets to target in that area.
What are the best bets for “Sunday Night Football?” Here are some props and anytime TD bets to consider for the Week 12 “SNF” battle.
Sunday Night Football best bets
All odds are via BetMGM as of Saturday.
Matthew Stafford UNDER 1.5 passing TDs (-125)
Stafford has thrown multiple touchdown passes in three of his last four games, but this doesn’t profile as a good matchup for him. The Eagles enter Week 12 as one of just five NFL teams that have allowed fewer than 10 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this season, and Philadelphia has only surrendered two total passing touchdowns since its Week 5 bye.
Stafford has thrown for one touchdown or less in seven of his 10 starts this year, so seeing him fail to log multiple scores wouldn’t be a surprise.
A.J. Brown anytime TD (+110)
The Rams have contained receivers well from a yardage standpoint, so betting the over on either Brown or DeVonta Smith might be riskier than one would think. That said, the Rams have allowed 13 touchdown catches to receivers this year, tied for the fourth-most in the NFL, so backing one to score could be a good move.
Brown has just three red-zone targets on the season, but it’s worth noting that he has had one in each of his last two games. He also has the game-breaking speed and elusiveness needed to score from a distance, and that could be doable against what has, at times, been a leaky Rams secondary.
Dallas Goedert OVER 45.5 receiving yards (-145)
The Rams have had trouble this year against tight ends. They are giving up an average of 5.4 catches and 62.3 yards per game to the position, with the latter figure being the fifth-most per game in the NFL.
Goedert is averaging 5.3 targets per game this season and is fresh off a 5-catch, 61-yard outing against the Commanders. He should post a similar stat line against the Rams, especially if they continue to focus on limiting the yardage potential of opposing receivers while leaving a little more space in the middle of the field.
Blake Corum anytime TD (+700)
This may seem like a strange pick, but it’s worth noting that Corum got the only Rams red-zone carry in their 28-22 win against the Patriots. It wasn’t just a late-game tote, either. Corum was given the ball over Kyren Williams midway through the second quarter, marking what was just the fourth red-zone carry for Corum this season.
Comparatively, Williams has 39 red-zone carries this year. That’s good for the second-most in the NFL behind only Joe Mixon. As such, one would presume that Williams would continue to get the bulk of the workload there, right?
Not necessarily. Williams is averaging just 3.9 yards per carry and hasn’t scored on his last 12 red-zone carries. That could lead the Rams to spell him inside of the 20 just to see if Corum can provide them an extra spark.
With that in mind, getting Corum as a 7-1 longshot to score seems like a decent gamble. Maybe he won’t eat into Williams’ workload in a tough matchup, but there’s no harm seeing if the tide is about to turn a bit for Los Angeles.