Team USA is one game away from the Paris 2024 Men’s Basketball Gold Medal Game, but it has to get through three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic and Serbia to reach the final.

Oddsmakers see the U.S. as the massive favorite, which makes sense given how one-sided the Americans’ games have been so far in this competition.

The USA (which is -700 to win Gold at DK, compared to Serbia at +2000) won each of its first four Olympic contests by at least 17 points.

The Americans’ one-sided victories included a 110-84 romp over Serbia on July 28 in its first game of group play. It’s worth pointing out, though, that for as dominant as the U.S. looked in the second half of that game, it was only up 50-47 with 1:14 to play in the second quarter.

Serbia has won three in a row since opening group play with a blowout loss to the U.S., but it hasn’t been easy for Jokic and Co. On Tuesday, they needed overtime to beat Australia in the quarterfinals in a game in which they trailed by as many as 24 points at one point in the first half.

And after a blowout win over Group C foe Puerto Rico on July 31, they entered the fourth quarter against South Sudan with just a five-point lead on August 3.

Serbia vs. USA will tip off at Bercy Arena in Paris at 3 p.m. ET on Thursday on USA Network.

Serbia-USA Olympic Semifinal Odds

Below are the spread, moneyline and total odds for the men’s basketball semifinal between Serbia and the USA.

Serbia vs. USA spread odds

Serbia vs. USA moneyline odds

Serbia vs. USA total odds

Serbia vs. USA Olympic Betting Analysis

The biggest questions entering the first Serbia vs. USA matchup of these Games were:

• No. 1: Did U.S. coach Steve Kerr have his lineup and rotation figured out?
• No. 2: What version of Kevin Durant would the Americans have at these Olympics?

USA appears to have identified starting lineup

Kerr has played a ton of guys, with everyone on this roster besides Tyrese Haliburton having seen significant minutes in at least one of the U.S.’s first four games.

And while seven players have started at least one game, Kerr started the same five against both Serbia on July 28 and in the quarterfinal vs. Brazil on August 6: LeBron James, Joel Embiid, Devin Booker, Jrue Holiday and Stephen Curry.

James, Booker and Curry have started every game, while Embiid and Holiday have started three and two games, respectively. Anthony Davis started the South Sudan game in place of Embiid, while Jayson Tatum started against South Sudan and Puerto Rico after a surprising DPN in his team’s opener vs. Serbia.

Healthy Kevin Durant makes Team USA virtually unguardable

Durant missed his team’s pre-Olympics exhibition matches due to a calf injury which raised concerns over his availability. But all he needed to make it clear that he was ready to help lead his team to another Olympic Gold Medal was the first half of the opener vs. Serbia.

Durant’s scorching shooting (8-for-9 from the field, including 5-of-5 from 3) sent a message to the field that even in limited minutes, he can make a team that is already hard to stop that much more potent.

He posted pedestrian shooting and scoring numbers against South Sudan, Puerto Rico and Brazil, but the threat of another hot shooting night from Durant makes it hard to imagine anything besides another comfortable U.S. victory.

Can Serbia flip the script from 3-point land?

The presence of not just Jokic, but also Hawks guard Bogdan Bogdanovic, Heat forward Nikola Jovic and former EuroLeague MVP Vasilije Micic, made Serbia an intriguing darkhorse entering the Olympics, especially after Bogdanovic led a roster that did not feature Jokic to silver at the 2023 FIBA World Cup.

But in the Group C opener, Serbia failed to keep pace with Team USA after halftime due to a poor shooting performance. When Bogdanovic is at his best, as he was against South Sudan (30 points, eight assists on 10-for-14 FG shooting), Serbia might have a chance to hang with the U.S. for 40 minutes.

But Serbia will need not only Bogdanovic, who has made over 38% of his 3-pointers in his NBA career, but the entire roster to get hot from outside to send the Americans home.

Serbia made just nine of its 37 3-point attempts (24%) against the Americans on July 28 — with Jokic and Bogdanovic going just 3-for-12 from downtown. At the same time, it allowed Team USA to make 18-of-32 from outside, which is the biggest reason that game got away from Serbia after halftime.

In the semifinal rematch, if Serbia can do a better job keeping track of the Americans’ top shooters and limit the USA to around 40% shooting from the perimeter (which is admittedly much easier said than done), and Jokic and/or Bogdanovic can get hot, Thursday’s game could be as competitive from start to finish as the first half of these teams’ previous matchup.

Serbia vs. USA Prediction, Best Bets

While there’s certainly a case for Serbia to keep this game close, especially if Team USA struggles from beyond the arc, there’s no denying that the Americans have much more firepower than Serbia (or anyone else in the Olympics).

The U.S. has won, and won big, in a variety of ways at these Olympics, and it’s almost unfair that a team can have the likes of Durant and Anthony Edwards coming off the bench.

It’s not unreasonable to take a flier on Serbia to keep Thursday’s semifinal interesting for a half, or a little more than that. That’s especially true if Embiid is on the court for extended minutes and once again struggles against Jokic, which is a distinct possibility.

In fact, whether you think Serbia is truly likely to lead this game at halftime or not, Serbia first-half moneyline is awfully tempting at nearly 5-to-1.

But over 40 minutes, the U.S. is just too deep to recommend a bet on anything other than the chalk.

Best bets:

• Serbia first quarter spread +5.5 (-112) FanDuel
• Serbia 1H spread +10.5 (-122 at FD) OR Serbia 1H moneyline (+490 at FD)
• USA -16.5 (-112) FanDuel

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