Serbia just completed the largest comeback in Olympic Men’s Basketball history, winning in overtime against Australia after trailing by 24 points in the first half. The path for Team USA has been smooth sailing by comparison, with four straight comfortable wins, including a decisive victory over Serbia in group play.

The winner on Thursday books their ticket to the gold medal game, and it seems only a Nikola Jokic masterclass could unseat this seemingly unbeatable American squad.

My Serbia vs USA predictions detail why I believe Thursday’s semifinal should be a high-scoring affair.

Serbia vs USA prediction

My best bet
Over 186.5 (-110)

My analysis

Team USA and Serbia aren’t just two of the best teams in the tournament, they’re similar in that they both get it done on offense.

Naturally, the USA has been far and away the most productive offensive team in the tournament, scoring an average of 109.8 points per game. They’re at that absurd mark in part because they’re shooting a tournament-best 44% from deep.

Serbia has been the second-best offensive team in the tournament behind the USA, averaging 95.5 points per game on 50.9% shooting. Nikola Jokic is the centerpiece of the offense, but they have plenty of shooting and passing besides. 

Bogdan Bogdanovic is a FIBA killer, who fills a similar role as a pick-and-roll play finisher around Jokic that Jamal Murray does on the Denver Nuggets. Just as no team has figured out a way to shut down the Murray/Jokic two-man game in the NBA, the best Serbia’s opponents have done against Bogdan and Jokic is to slow them down.

Both Serbia and Team USA are shooting around 63% on twos, leading the field. Normally I would be hesitant about an American opponent replicating that kind of efficiency against the likes of Anthony Davis, but we’ve seen Jokic cook AD, Bam Adebayo, and every other defender in the world consistently for years now. 

His ability to pressure the rim from the post leads to easy scores for himself and cuts that result in layups for his teammates.

Team USA’s skill and talent advantages at every position outside of center are clear, and while Serbia can make things interesting by going shot for shot against them, they don’t have a clear path to limiting the American’s overall scoring. In the exhibition game, Team USA scored 105 points and in group play, they had 110, while buoyed by hot shooting, the Americans have shot at that level all Olympics long.

The last reason I like the Over here is that the Americans respect this Serbia team. They see them, not incorrectly, as the greatest potential upset threat in these Olympics. Despite having beaten them handily in two recent games, they will not take their foot off the gas pedal until the clock hits zero.

Jokic does it all

My Nikola Jokic prop: Over 39.5 pts/reb/ast

It’s incredible to think that Serbia won the silver medal at last year’s FIBA World Cup with Jokic not on the roster. Still, when it comes to the Olympics, and this matchup against Team USA, Serbia will go as far as Jokic can carry them. In the game in group play that Serbia lost by 26 points, they played the Americans dead even in Jokic’s 31 minutes and sank like a stone when he was on the bench.

Serbia could lean on Jokic even more than they have, and with this being a do-or-die game against the world’s basketball superpower, I am expecting a jump in Jokic’s minutes and on-ball responsibility. 

Steve Kerr evidently agrees.  He noted in an article by ESPN’s Brian Windhorst that one adjustment Serbia could make over their previous matchups is a significant jump in Jokic’s minutes — up to and including playing all 40.

It wouldn’t take such a drastic minute bump to make this a valuable line, as Jokic already tops Serbia in points (19.3), rebounds (11.8), and assists (7.5) for 38.6 total PRA.

The movement and passing around Jokic fit his style of play well, even if he should have the ball in his hands more than he does. Serbia also has enough scoring talent at other spots that Jokic can’t be egregiously double-teamed without consequence, which is the only bar a team needs to clear to allow Jokic to control a game on offense.

Serbia vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Joel Embiid continues to hear endless boos from the French crowd whose national team he scorned, but if Team USA wasn’t experiencing the level of success that it has been, the criticism from fans across the pond would be similarly loud.

Embiid has just not been anywhere near as dominant for Team USA as might be expected from a perennial MVP candidate. That the lineups without him, including the AD and Bam bench unit, have so outperformed him is a bit remarkable. 

When Embiid was benched against South Sudan, it drew significantly less media skepticism than when Kerr sat Jayson Tatum because most people agreed that on the merits Embiid had not earned his playing time to that point. I think he might again struggle to find a place in Kerr’s rotation against Serbia.

Outside of his on-and-off struggles for Team USA, Embiid has never been a good one-on-one matchup defensively against Jokic. Even though AD and Bam have had their struggles as well, as a duo they can execute the best defense against the three-time MVP possible. Embiid lacks the mobility to be a meaningful part of such a pairing.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Serbia vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-7.

Serbia vs USA game info

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