Today, the first round of Olympic men’s basketball group matches will wrap up with a marquee matchup at Stade Pierre-Mauroy in Villeneuve d’Ascq as Serbia and the USA face off in Group C action (11:15 am ET, NBC).

Through the first five games of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, chalk has won out.

Yesterday, all four favorites came out on top, with Australia defeating Spain, Germany brushing aside Japan, France dispatching Brazil, and Canada seeing off Greece. Then in today’s first game, South Sudan pulled away from Puerto Rico in the fourth quarter to win their Olympic debut. Four of five teams also covered the spread, with Canada, who was favored by 7.5 points but won by only seven, the lone exception.

Will those trends continue in this matchup?

This shapes up as one of the toughest tests that Team USA may face in their quest for a sixth straight Olympic men’s basketball gold medal, as they go up against three-time NBA MVP Nikola Jokic, Atlanta Hawks sharpshooter Bogdan Bogdanovic, and Serbia, who are expected to contend for a medal after missing the Tokyo Olympics.

Still, the Olympic gold medal favorites are favored by a healthy margin, even after some struggles in their warm-up contests.

Serbia vs USA Odds

Spread

• Serbia +13.5 (-110)
• USA -13.5 (-110)

Over/Under

• Over 182.5 (-110)
• Under 182.5 (-110)

Moneyline

See more Serbia vs USA odds at BetOnline. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a bonus to bet on this blockbuster Olympic men’s basketball tournament matchup.

Serbia vs USA Betting Analysis

In their prep for the Olympics, the USA had single-digit wins against Australia, South Sudan, and Germany, needing some LeBron James heroics in the latter two games to narrowly escape with victory.

But their most impressive warm-up win came against Serbia, a 105-79 rout in Abu Dhabi 11 days ago. Following a tied first quarter, Serbia scored the first six points of the second quarter. But the USA took control with a 28-8 run and didn’t look back from there, leading by as many as 31 on the way to the win.

Will we see a much more competitive game today?

Eight years ago, these two teams met in group action at the 2016 Olympics, with the USA pulling out a 94-91 win.

In that matchup, Jokic led all scorers with 25 points. At the time, he was coming off of his rookie season in the NBA, in which he finished third in NBA Rookie of the Year voting.

Eight years later, he’s arguably the best player in the league and in the world, having been named NBA MVP in three of the last four seasons.

If he can lead Serbia to the upset today, it will turn the Olympic men’s basketball tournament upside down. And based on the USA’s shaky results to close out warm-ups, Serbia may well be a popular upset pick.

However, all five of those warm-ups were without Kevin Durant on the court due to a calf sprain. Until yesterday, KD’s availability for today’s matchup appeared to be in serious doubt. But he is set to be available against Serbia, and even if he plays a limited role, that is a significant boost for the USA for this game and going forward.

Still, this is a pretty sizable spread, given the quality of the opponent.

Serbia vs USA Prediction & Picks

When these two teams met in Abu Dhabi, the USA turned things up a few notches after a highly competitive start. That could be playing with fire this time around, as Serbia has the horses to hang around, especially if Bogdanovic can get going from outside.

That said, the USA’s best—which we have yet to see—is better than anyone else’s best, and this is the kind of occasion that could bring it out. What better way to begin the tournament with a big statement against a fellow contender?

That may well occur, but this is still a spread to be wary of. With that in mind, I’m focusing instead on the over for both the first half and the game.

In each of the first five games of the Olympic men’s basketball tournament, the first half has been the highest-scoring half.

• Australia vs Spain: 91 first-half points, 81 second-half points
• Germany vs Japan: 96 first-half points, 78 second-half points
• France vs Brazil: 75 first-half points, 69 second-half points
• Greece vs Canada: 86 first-half points, 79 second-half points
• South Sudan vs Puerto Rico: 102 first-half points, 67 second-half points

At Bovada, you can bet on the first half to be the highest-scoring half. At -152, the number isn’t ideal, which is why I’m stopping short of including it in my Serbia vs USA picks. But given the current trend, it’s worth considering if you don’t mind the juice.

Serbia vs USA Prediction: USA to win

Serbia vs USA Picks: Serbia/USA first half over 92 (-119 at BetOnline) & Serbia/USA over 182.5