Rams playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Los Angeles to win NFC West division

Admin December 29, 2024

The Los Angeles Rams began the season slowly, jumping out to just a 1-4 record over the first five weeks.

However, as they have often under Sean McVay, the Rams are heating up down the stretch of the season. In Week 17, they beat the Arizona Cardinals to earn their fifth consecutive win, positioning them to win the NFC West.

The Rams are in control of their own destiny heading into Week 18, but they may not even need to win their final game to clinch the division. Depending on the results of the rest of the Week 17 games, Los Angeles may already be guaranteed passage to the NFL playoffs as the NFC West champions.

What do the Rams need to have happen to win the NFC West? Here’s what to know about their playoff chances after their win over the Cardinals.

Rams playoff chances

The Rams have better than a 99% chance to make the playoffs after their win over the Cardinals, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. They also have a 99% chance to win the NFC West over the Seattle Seahawks.

Rams playoff odds

Oddsmakers agree with The Athletic’s assessment of the Rams’ postseason chances. Sportsbooks are not listing Los Angeles’ postseason odds or odds to win the NFC West entering Week 17’s Sunday action.

That means the books recognize the Rams are nearly locked into a playoff spot – and likely the NFC West title.

What needs to happen for Rams to make playoffs?

The Rams can make it into the playoffs in Week 17 if they clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker over the Seahawks. That would require three of the following teams to win their games:

The Rams can also clinch the NFC West if two of the above teams win and one tie.

If the Rams fail to clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can clinch the division in Week 18 with any of the following results:

Rams win over Seahawks;
Rams tie with Seahawks;
Rams lose to Seahawks, win strength of victory tiebreaker based on Week 18 results.

Given this, the Rams will likely clinch the NFC West, whether in Week 17 or Week 18.

What is the strength of victory tiebreaker?

The NFL’s strength of victory tiebreaker represents the combined record of the opponents a team has beaten. It is the fifth tiebreaker used by the league, behind head-to-head record, division games, common games and conference games.

This matters because the Rams and Seahawks would see all their first four tiebreakers even if Seattle beats Los Angeles in Week 18. However, if the Rams clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker, they will be guaranteed to finish ahead of the Seahawks regardless of the Week 18 result, as Los Angeles will finish with a record that is as good as or better than Seattle’s.

Below is a look at the Rams and Seahawks’ strength of victory entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29:

Rams remaining schedule

If the Rams don’t clinch the strength of victory tiebreaker in Week 17, they can render it meaningless in Week 18 by beating the Seahawks head-to-head. The division rivals are facing off in Week 18.

Los Angeles beat Seattle 26-20 in overtime in their first meeting of the season in Week 9.

Below is the Rams’ remaining schedule:

Rams potential playoff opponents

If the Rams win the NFC West, they will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the NFC. That will line them up with a tough matchup with one of the following opponents:

The Rams have the inside track to the No. 3 seed and can wrap it up with a win. That would line them up to face the No. 6 seed, which projects to be the Packers entering Week 17.