Race for the Number 1 Seed: NFL Week 14 Preview

Admin December 9, 2024

We head into the tail end of the season with both conferences producing multiple teams competing for the precious bye week that comes with the number one seed.

With the addition of a seventh playoff team in recent years achieving a bye has become all the more important due to only the top seed getting that week of rest.

It’s a rare year when races for the number one seeds are more competitive than the races for the wildcard spots. In most years there’s a lot more balance around the league with a large portion of it fighting for the 6th or 7th spot in either conference.

You would also usually have a team elevating themselves above the rest and securing their playoff bye with room to spare.

This year, that’s not the case. There’s a bigger gap between the last playoff team and those chasing than there is between those competing for the bye. And that goes for both conferences.

Historically the entertainment in the playoffs comes from the team with the best record, and now it appears that they need to carry the regular season as well.

Battle for the AFC

Going into week 14 the Kansas City Chiefs sit atop of the conference at 11-1. They’ve shaken off their loss to the Buffalo Bills with victories over the Carolina Panthers and the Las Vegas Raiders.

Neither win was convincing, but that’s what we’ve come to expect from the back-to-back Superbowl winners. They are serial winners even though every win seems to resemble a fight for a knife in the mud.

This week they take on the Los Angeles Chargers whose head coach seems like he would partake in mud fighting recreationally. The Chargers have taken on the image of their head coach and have become a tough team that can also grind out wins.

Their recent win against the Atlanta Falcons was hardly a classic, but their defence managed to force four interceptions out of Kirk Cousins to secure them their eighth win.

You could argue that this is the most difficult game remaining on the Chiefs’ schedule as Justin Herbert and the Chargers always seem to play them close. But then again, everyone is playing the Chiefs close this season and they have still won 11 of their 12 games so far.

In fact, the Chargers have failed to defeat their Chiefs in their last six games, with five of which being by one score. The Chiefs always seem to get the knife first.

Their nearest rivals the Buffalo Bills sit at 10-2 and are travelling west to take on the Los Angeles Rams. The Bills are seeking to win their 8th game in a row as they look to continue applying pressure on the Chiefs.

The Bills flexed their muscles with a 35-10 win over the San Francisco 49ers and they will expect to continue their winning streak when they take on another NFC West side.

On paper, the Bills are a much stronger side than the Rams. Their D-line will have Matthew Stafford under constant pressure while Josh Allen will be looking to stress an underwhelming Los Angeles secondary.

The Rams have recently signed free agent Emmanuel Forbes to their cornerback room which is a good indication of how talented that unit is. Despite starting off the season as a weakness, following the acquisition of Amari Cooper the Bills now have one of the strongest receiving corps in football.

A concern for the Bills is that this is a win that the Rams need for them to remain in contention for the NFC West. They also have a QB in Matthew Stafford who is as good as any in the NFL when he’s locked in. So they are not to be taken lightly.

To round up the number one contender on the AFC side you’ve got the 9-3 Pittsburgh Steelers. A loss to the Cleveland Browns two weeks ago certainly hurt their chances, but their schedule still allows them a chance to face the Chiefs.

A win over the Chiefs in week 17 would give them the tiebreaker over Kansas City and then they would only need a one-game swing over the remaining four games to usurp them.

For now, though, they just need to take it a week at a time and focus on getting their revenge on the Cleveland Browns.

In week 12, they lost 24-19 to the Cleveland Browns in wintery conditions. While these games can be fun in terms of spectacle, they do cause a direct disadvantage to the better team. It becomes a more even playing field where everyone is struggling.

This time around the conditions are perfect and the Steelers will be looking to take advantage of that.

The Browns have become a more competitive outfit since Jameis Winston became their QB. Offensively their floor and ceiling were raised from when they had an ineffective Deshaun Watson under center.

Despite the improvement, Winston has still shown that he is still capable of making game-ending mistakes. Against the Denver Broncos Winston threw three interceptions, including two pick-sixes.

Winston’s erratic play is something that the Steelers’ defence will look to take advantage of, and this time their defence should be able to get their footing.

On their offensive side of the ball, Russel Wilson has revitalised his career and has made the Steelers genuine contenders. While he’ll always have to worry about Myles Garrett he’s facing a Browns defence that has only produced four interceptions the entire year.

As long as Wilson plays it safe the Steelers should have enough talent to overwhelm the Browns on both sides of the ball.

Battle for the NFC

With the Detroit Lions winning their Thursday Night matchup against the Green Bay Packers the Philadelphia Eagles and the Minnesota Vikings will be under extra pressure to secure a win this Sunday.

With their loss in Detroit, the Green Bay Packers are essentially eliminated from contention for the number one seed. In order to achieve the bye they would require a four-game swing with Detroit to overcome both the record and the tiebreaker.

The Lions’ biggest contenders for first place are the Philadelphia Eagles who have a strong argument to be considered the number one team in football. Player for player they have one of the strongest rosters in recent NFL history.

Even when aligned against the Lions there’s not a unit that you could consider to be weaker. When comparing their safeties you would say that Detroit has the better players, but when looking at the secondary overall, they’re fairly even with Philly having the better cornerback room.

The Lions have a respected O-Line, but the Eagles’ is better. Jamhyr Gibbs and David Montgomery are great, Saquon Barkley is an MVP candidate. The Lions have a complimentary wide receiver group, the Eagles’ WR2, Devonta Smith would be a WR1 in most offences, including Detroit.

Not to mention the seismic advantage the Eagles have over the Lions when it comes to their defensive line. While the Lions are down to their third stringers the Eagles might just have the most dominant defensive talent in football at the moment in Jalen Carter.

The only reason these sides are considered close is due to the Lions’ advantage on the coaching staff. There’s a reason why both of the Lions coordinators are likely to be head coaches next season due to the work they have done this season.

Ben Johnson has consistently been of the league’s best offensive minds while Aaron Glenn has performed miracles with a decimated Lions defence. The Eagles coaching staff by comparison haven’t needed to be as creative due to the talent that surrounds them.

In regards to the head coaches, it’s obvious that the Lions are built in the image of Dan Campbell. This team is elevated by his presence and belief that he has in his team. Meanwhile, the Eagles have benefited more from Nick Sirianni taking a step back than they did when he had more power in the orginisation.

The Eagles not winning a Superbowl with this roster during Sirianni’s tenure would be a surprise and could only be due to a couple of reasons. Insanely bad luck and hiring an okay coach when a great one might have been available.

Sorry, lost track there.

This week the Eagles are likely to secure their 11th win when they face the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers are not to be overlooked as they took both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and the Kansas City Chiefs down to the wire in their previous two games.

Bryce Young looks rejuvenated in his return to the starting line-up, but he is up against an Eagles defence that has seen their stock rise more than nearly any other. Last week they held Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens in check, showing that they can win games even when their offence is struggling.

As long as they don’t look past the Panthers, this should be another convincing win as the Eagles continue to play boring but effective football. Who needs to get creative when brute force will carry you to victory?

The other side competing for the NFC bye week is the Minnesota Vikings. Before the season the Vikings were considered contenders to finish bottom of the NFC North, but Kevin O’Connell and Sam Darnold have proved the doubters wrong.

Like the Steelers in the AFC, they will have their sights set on their week 18 game against the Detroit Lions which could prove to be the decider. But like the Steelers they can’t overlook this week’s opponent.

The Atlanta Falcons come into this game struggling. They’ve lost three games in a row and have lost their gip over the lead in the NFC South. On top of the stench of desperation they also bring former Vikings QB Kirk Cousins back to Minnesota.

Cousins is coming off of one his worst stretches in his career throwing for 0 touchdowns and 6 interceptions in his last three games. Still, the Falcons have talent on their roster in the likes of Bijan Robinson and Drake London. With talent like this, they could do some damage to a Brian Flores defence that has lost some of its early season lustre.

Sam Darnold has seemingly recovered from a mid-season blip to get back to early-season form. In complete contrast to Cousins, Darnold has had 6 touchdowns to 0 interceptions over the past three games as the Vikings just keep winning.

While Minnesota should stroll to victory here, one thing to consider is Michael Penix Jr. Should Cousins continue to struggle early the Falcons could turn to their first-round pick who brings a completely different skill set that the Vikings defence would not have prepared for.