A matchup doesn’t get much closer to David vs. Goliath than this.

Team USA is on the brink of locking up the No.1 overall seed ahead of the Olympic Men’s Basketball quarter-finals, as long as they take care of business against Puerto Rico. At 0-2, for Jose Alvarado and his teammates, this game is about pride, and they’ve proven they have it in bunches just by getting this far.

My Puerto Rico vs. USA predictions dive deep into Steve Kerr’s lineup decisions and who I think might be left out during the latest round of musical chairs.

Puerto Rico vs USA prediction

My best bet
Anthony Davis Under 9.5 points (-115)

My analysis

By all rights, this game should be a lopsided affair favoring the United States. 

When Jayson Tatum didn’t play in Team USA’s opener Olympic opener against Serbia, it set off a media firestorm. How could the best player on the reigning NBA champions not get a minute?

Steve Kerr, in typical self-deprecating fashion, made it clear that it was a difficult choice. Given the team’s depth of talent, it’s inevitable that an awesome player is going to be riding the pine every game.

More than the X’s and O’s, Kerr was hired to make these very decisions and to get buy-in from his players anyway. In every game, a superstar player is not going to play, or not play enough, and that will be Team USA’s best path to victory. 

Tatum sat in the first game, and Joel Embiid in the second. In the interests of team cohesion and the appearance of fairness, Kerr isn’t likely to just return to sitting Tatum again in this one, and he’s already said publicly that Embiid will return to the starting lineup against Puerto Rico. That means there is almost certainly a new odd man out, and it’s likely a big.

Between Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, Anthony Davis seems the more likely candidate for me. He got elevated to the starting lineup over Embiid for the previous game, so it would not be seen as unfair if he then sat out in a game that Team USA should win easily.

AD is also older and much more prone to injury than Bam, and Adebayo is also a natural fit who can play the Draymond Green role that Kerr likes to utilize.

Of course, There’s no certainty that Davis doesn’t play, but his line is such that it’s a reasonable gamble on its own merits given the blowout potential and the insignificance of point differential for Team USA. The Americans can lock up the number one seed with a five-point win, and the line is a lopsided -35.5.

The potential that Davis does not play at all tilts the play toward significant expected value, making it my favorite bet on Saturday.

Slow play Steph

Steph Curry prop: Under 2.5 threes (+105)

Steph Curry has not had much of an impact during his first Olympics. After some notable high points in the exhibition games, Steph is just 3-for-13 from downtown in the tournament.

Curry was 0-for-6 from deep against South Sudan, and while he went 3-7 from deep against Serbia, that included a bucket he made in the fading moments of the game. If Steph is averaging 6.5 threes per game when he plays a normal minutes load, it’s reasonable to expect him to hit less than three triples. 

And given the chance that he might be load-managed on Saturday, the value clearly moves in favor of the Under. This game has next to no meaning for the United States, and Curry is among the players who could benefit most from some rest.

With less opportunity, the value of taking this Steph Under begins to take shape.

Puerto Rico vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Puerto Rico is outmatched at every position, in both size and talent, and they’re coming off a monster loss to a Serbia side that previously got blown off the court by Team USA. However, the game prop with value as the third leg of a same-game parlay here isn’t the spread, which is reasonably placed at -35.5, but rather the total at 189.5.

Serbia played practically a perfect offensive game against Puerto Rico and scored 107 points, while Team USA put up 110 against Serbia. It’s difficult to score much more than that in a 40-minute game, even with every advantage the American talent edge brings.

It would be understandable if there is something of a psychological letdown by the American side, who outside of winning by five, have little to play for. I still expect them to be dominant, but not as focused on maximizing every possession on offense.

In turn, I am skeptical about how Puerto Rico is going to generate reliable offense. While the offensive intensity might slip for Team USA, guys like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White only play one speed on defense. Meanwhile, the size of the USA on the interior should all but deny Puerto Rico anything at the rim.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Puerto Rico vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-2.

Puerto Rico vs USA game info

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