The $2 million Preakness Stakes drew a field of nine 3-year-olds. Three horses from the 2024 Kentucky Derby will return two weeks later for the Preakness, and Mystik Dan will try to become the eighth horse since 2000 to win the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

It is worth noting that in 2009 the filly Rachel Alexandra won the Preakness two weeks and one day after her victory in the Kentucky Oaks.

In the last 11 years, in the Preakness the winner was close to the early pace 10 times. Four horses won on the front end, including National Treasure last year, Triple Crown winners Justify and American Pharoah along with Oxbow. Stalkers were the most common, with five winners staying close in the early going. Exaggerator came from more than 11 lengths behind in 2016 to find the winner’s circle as the only deep closer.

Here are odds and analysis for the Preakness with the official Pimlico morning line.

1. Mugatu, 20-1. Blofeld – Jeff Engler / Joe Bravo – 12: 1-1-3 – $80,570. Mugatu has only a maiden victory in his 12-race record, and that was on a synthetic surface. His three starts in stakes races produced at best a fourth-place finish at Turfway Park. Toss.

2. Uncle Heavy, 20-1. Social Inclusion – Robert Reid Jr. / Irad Ortiz Jr. – 5: 3-0-0 – $323,580. Uncle Heavy won the Withers (G3) at Aqueduct on the Kentucky Derby trail going nine- urlongs but came back with a lackluster performance in the Wood Memorial (G2). The Pennsylvania-bred does not seem to be fast enough for this Preakness field. Irad Ortiz will get the mount, which will only make his odds lower than they should be. Toss.

3. Catching Freedom, 6-1. Constitution – Brad Cox / Flavien Prat – 6: 3-0-1 – $1,127,350. Catching Freedom is one of the three horses who ran in the Kentucky Derby. Historically, those 3-year-olds have done well, although not in the last three years. He is a deep closer and rallied from 15th in the Derby to finish fourth, less than two lengths behind the blanket finish of the top three. Even though the Preakness has not been kind to deep closers, Catching Freedom never has run a bad race. Win contender.

4. Muth, 8-5. Good Magic – Bob Baffert / Juan Hernandez – 6: 4-2-0 – $1,504,100. Muth is going to be a heavy favorite based on trainer Bob Baffert’s eight victories in the Preakness from 1997 with Silver Charm to last year when National Treasure was the winner. Muth sold for $2 million as a 2-year-old after fetching $190,000 as a yearling. Muth won his last two starts in the San Vicente (G2) and the Arkansas Derby (G1), beating Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan. Muth was close to the pace in all of his starts. Win contender.

5. Mystik Dan, 5-2. Goldencents – Kenny McPeek / Brian Hernandez Jr. – 7: 3-1-1 – $3,741,360. Mystik Dan won the Kentucky Derby by a nose with a thrilling trip on the rail. In the Arkansas Derby he was third behind Muth but had a rough start that day. Seven horses have come back from the Derby victory to win the Preakness since 2000, including a pair of Triple Crown winners. Trainer Kenny McPeek won the Preakness with the filly Swiss Skydiver in the 2020 COVID year when the race was run in October. Win contender.

6. Seize the Grey, 15-1. Arrogate – D. Wayne Lukas / Jaime Torres – 9: 3-0-3 – $619,938. Seize the Grey got his first stakes victory in the Pat Day Mile (G2) on the Kentucky Derby undercard, so he also will try to come back after only two weeks of rest. The cutback to a mile seemed to be the key after a pair of starts on the Derby trail, and now he will have to run farther than in any previous race. D. Wayne Lukas has six previous Preakness wins spanning 33 years, with the first coming in 1980 with Angel Cordero Jr. riding and most recently in 2013 when Oxbow was the winner. Toss.

7. Just Steel, 15-1. Justify – D. Wayne Lukas / Joel Rosario – 12: 2-4-1 – $724,545. Just Steel was 17th in the Kentucky Derby after being part of the early pace that collapsed. Joel Rosario gets back on board. He rode Just Steel to his only stakes victory, which came in November. Toss.

8. Tuscan Gold, 8-1. Medaglia d’Oro – Chad Brown / Tyler Gaffalione – 3: 1-0-1 – $147,100. Tuscan Gold is lightly raced but last was seen finishing third in the Louisiana Derby (G2) which was run at the same distance as the Preakness. No doubt he is overshadowed by his stablemate Sierra Leone, who was second in that blanket finish in the run for the roses. Brown won the Preakness twice in the last seven years, both times with owner Klaravich Stables. In 2017 it was Cloud Computing and two years ago with Early Voting. Top choice.

9. Imagination, 6-1. Into Mischief – Bob Baffert / Frankie Dettori – 6: 2-4-0 – $406,800. Imagination will take the role as “the other Baffert” in the Preakness. He has been in the shadows of his stablemate Muth throughout his career and will be again Saturday. In six starts, Imagination never ran worse than second, with a victory in the San Felipe (G2) and a loss by a head in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). His top speed figure makes him a contender, and he will go to post with the highest odds of his career. Win contender.

Summary: Since the altered Triple Crown schedule during the COVID year of 2020, the Preakness has been won by horses who did not run in the Kentucky Derby. Last year National Treasure prepped with a fourth-place finish in the Santa Anita Derby. In 2022, Early Voting was second in the Wood Memorial at Aqueduct, and Rombauer ran third in the 2021 Blue Grass.

I will go with this trend and make Tuscan Gold the top pick. Chad Brown has a pair of Preakness winners since 2017 while making that move.