Men’s basketball at the Paris Olympics is getting down to the wire. The semifinals tip off on Thursday. Four teams will compete for a trip to the Gold Medal game.

Olympic Basketball Best Bets

Germany vs. France

Germany -4.5 (-110)

Germany and France will meet up at 12:30 pm ET on Thursday with a trip to the Gold Medal game on the line.

France is 3-1 in this tournament, with their lone loss coming against this very Germany team. The Germans have not only gone undefeated, but they’ve won each of their games by at least 13 points.

I like France and am impressed by their nine-point victory in the quarterfinals over Canada, a team that has a loaded roster, but I still prefer Germany to cover the spread on Thursday.

Rudy Gobert has struggled for the French. He played just three minutes in the first game of the knockout round. Guerschon Yabusele, Isaia Cordinier, and Evan Fournier picked up the pieces opposite Canada. That trio went a combined 16-for-27 from the field, good for a whopping 57 points. France was also afforded a jarring 42 free-throw attempts in that one. I don’t think we can expect overperformance from those aforementioned players or free throws to bail France out once again.

A great game from Victor Wembanyama can help the French stay within striking distance, but Germany is a well-rounded and complete team. Led by Dennis Schroeder, Franz Wagner, and Daniel Theis, the German team has assets at every position.

When these teams met up in the group stage, Germany prevailed with an 85-71 victory despite both squads shooting at almost identical clips and the Germans losing the free-throw battle. With the 20-year-old Wembanyama still undergoing growing pains, Franz Wagner is the most lethal player on either side. He’s been expectedly awesome in the Olympics and is surrounded by a reliable supporting cast in Schroeder, Theis, and brother Moe Wagner.

I like Germany to cover and leave the French to fight to claim bronze.

United States vs. Serbia

LeBron James Over 22.5 Pts + Ast (-115)

The United States and Serbia will square off at 3:00 pm ET on Thursday.

Team USA is favored by 16.5 points but will surely get the best possible effort from Nikola Jokic and Serbia in this semifinal matchup. Since Jokic and the Serbs can work quickly, I’m expecting LeBron James to be a non-negotiable in crunch time.

LeBron is averaging 21.5 combined points and assists (PA) in the Paris Olympics. More importantly, he’s averaging 1.03 PA per minute. If he continues to produce at this pace, he would need to play just 23 minutes on Thursday to exceed 22.5 PA. That’s a pretty low bar considering the stakes of this game.

He notched 30 PA against Serbia during the group stage. I’ll back LeBron to get busy against this Serbia team once again.

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