Welcome to Noel Michaels’ Weekend Winners, the place to go for weekend best bets and spot plays from veteran handicapper and tournament-play pioneer Noel Michaels. Check back every week for a couple of highlighted selections designed to help you cash a few bets and make some money.
Noel’s selections have been featured just about everywhere horse racing picks can be found, including in print in the Daily Racing Form, The HorsePlayer Magazine and American Turf Monthly, online at DRF.com, Twinspires.com and USRacing.com, from the paddock on-track at Arlington International Racecourse, and on the air on HRTV, TVG, NYC OTB Extra, NYRA’s SatuTalking Horses, and on broadcast TV on WAVE-3 Louisville, ABC KOLO-8 in Reno, Nevada, and channel 72 Long Island Cablevision.
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Six Beginner Betting Tools
Top older horses take center stage this weekend at Saratoga Race Course with the running of the $1 million, Grade 1 Whitney Stakes leading the way on a 13-race program that contains a total of five stakes. And don’t look now, but there’s also another Grade 1 race on the Saturday card with the running of the $600,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes for 3-year-old turfers leading the way on the undercard. For this weekend’s winners, let’s focus on the Spa’s two Grade 1 races this Saturday – the Whitney and the Saratoga Derby Invitational – if we can pick the winners of these two features we will be well on our way to a successful day on Saturday. Have a great weekend!
Saratoga Race Course, Race 7, $600,000 Saratoga Derby Invitational Stakes, post time 3:21 p.m. ET
A field of eight 3-year-olds has been drawn for the Grade 1 Saratoga Derby Invitational going 1 3/16 miles on the grass. Contention runs deep in this bunch and the big-name barns are all taking a crack here with the contenders in this race hailing from a who’s who of top turf trainers including Charlie Appleby, Chad Brown, Christophe Clement, Shug McGaughey, Bill Mott, and Aidan O’Brien. Clement has two runners entered, and it might be the more low-profile horse of the two – #6 Carson’s Run – who turns out to be the best of all. Carson’s Run just missed when second in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes on this course last year and then returned to win a Grade 1 at Woodbine in the bet365 Summer Stakes. He was given a layoff after finishing ninth in the Prevagen Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf but has been on the comeback trail already this season including a solid win last time in the $100,000 Tale of the Cat Stakes at Monmouth Park. Now he’s ready to fire his best shot today in the third race of his form cycle and could turn out to be better than these at a price based on the talent he flashed last year with the logical progression from age 2 to age 3. Another horse at good odds that should add betting value to this race in the exotics is #8 White Palomino, who has been knocking on the door with near-miss second-place finishes at a similar level in both of his last two races, which were both head losses in graded stakes on this circuit for leading trainer Chad Brown. He’s well worth a try if anything close to his morning line odds of 8-1 with Flavien Prat aboard. We’ve already seen what #3 Legend of Time can do, but the more interesting of the two European-trained horses in this race could be #4 Diego Velazquez, who makes his U.S. debut for O’Brien coming off a seven-length Group 3 win in Ireland last time. Jockey Ryan Moore is coming over the pond for the mount.
The Play: Bet to win on #6 Carson’s Run (8-1) to win and play him in three-horse exacta boxes along with #4 Diego Velazquez (2-1) and #8 White Palomino (8-1).
Saratoga Race Course, Race 11, $1,000,000 Whitney Stakes, post time 5:42 p.m. ET
The Grade 1 Whitney Stakes is one of the featured stakes races of the entire Saratoga summer meet, and this year’s running has drawn a sensational field that has attracted many of the principals in the handicap division. The 1 1/8-mile distance of the Whitney is well within the reach of morning line 9-5 chalk #3 National Treasure, who will be a legitimate favorite for trainer Bob Baffert based on two stellar wins on his résumé already this year including the Grade 1 Pegasus World Cup Invitational Stakes Presented by Baccarat in January and the Grade 1 Hill ‘n’ Dale Metropolitan Handicap in June. National Treasure has speed to lead but does not need a clear lead in order to win. He will be tough to beat, but that doesn’t mean he will be a good win bet at low odds in this race loaded with top older horses. Instead, the recommended win bet in the Whitney is #9 Bright Future for trainer Todd Pletcher, who seems poised to have a big season. The future arrived for Bright Future last year at Saratoga when he won the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes, and after taking the winter off, he returned to the races in sharp form with a win last time in the Grade 3 Salvator Mile Stakes at Monmouth Park. He’s prepped and ready for another big Grade 1 Spa effort. Finally, the other horse here that belongs in your exactas and trifectas is #11 Arthur’s Ride, who looks more than ready for his career stakes debut in this spot after blowing away a solid 1 ¼ mile-allowance optional claiming field here at Saratoga last time by 12 ¾ lengths with a giant 111 Beyer Speed Figure for trainer Bill Mott.
The Play: Bet #9 Bright Future (5-1) to win and play him in exacta and trifecta boxes with #3 National Treasure (9-5), and #11 Arthur’s Ride (8-1).