Admin September 24, 2024
Sam Darnold’s MVP run continues, Ravens save season with win in Dallas
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon ‘overreacts’ to the biggest news from Sunday’s slate of games.
Sports Seriously
Week 4 unfolds like a beautiful tapestry of possibilities. If it’s anything like the previous weeks in the NFL, just about anything can happen.
The NFL standings are a testament to the adage that the season is a long grind, especially for those that find themselves on the 1-2 end of the stick entering a pivotal moment in the schedule.
The Dallas Cowboys, San Francisco 49ers and Baltimore Ravens all find themselves a game out from serious trouble. Thankfully, we have some inclination to how things will shake out.
Here is an early look at picks and predictions for the games that make up the NFL Week 4 slate.
NFL Week 4 game predictions, picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday afternoon.
Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants
- Date: Thursday, September 26
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: None
- Streaming: Amazon Prime, NFL+
- Spread: Cowboys (-4.5)
Covers.com: “The Cowboys have owned their division rivals in recent years. Dallas is 13-1 straight up and 11-3 against the spread against New York, going back to 2017, including a 6-1 straight up and against the spread mark at MetLife Stadium in that span. If you’re banking on this trend, don’t rush to bet Dallas. See how low (the line) will go for TNF.”
Action Network: Bet Cowboys (-4.5)
“The Cowboys have beaten the Giants in 13 of their last 14 meetings. Eleven of those wins came by more than a touchdown … This line should be Cowboys -6, maybe even -7, and it might be by kickoff on Thursday night.”
All NFL news, on and off the field: Sign up for USA TODAY’s 4th and Monday newsletter.
New Orleans Saints vs. Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Falcons (-1.5)
Arizona Republic: Falcons 27, Saints 20
Sportsnaut: Falcons 27, Saints 23.
“We do have some concerns with the injuries on the Falcons offensive line, but Atlanta is even more well-equipped than the Eagles were to take on New Orleans. We are expecting a close divisional battle, but the Falcons’ offense gives them the edge right now.”
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Carolina Panthers
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte, N.C.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Bengals (-5.5)
Arizona Republic: Prediction: Bengals 28, Panthers 21
Dimers: Bengals 26, Panthers 20
It writes: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bengals a win probability of 72%, while the Panthers have a win probability of 28%.”
Los Angeles Rams vs. Chicago Bears
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Soldier Field, Chicago
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Bears (-2.5)
Sports Betting Dime: Take the RamsSacha Paruk writes, “The injuries at receiver are undeniably concerning but don’t forget that the Rams were a playoff team last year (10-7) and Sean McVay remains one of the top coaches in the league. This is good value against a struggling rookie QB.”
Bookies.com: Bears moneyline:
Bill Speros writes, “The Bears’ defense is helping the offense ease Caleb Williams into the NFL. The Rams could well give Williams the chance to show some of the tools that led him to be taken with the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft. The Rams have been decimated by injuries, losing both Puka Nacua and Cooper Kupp. But they outlasted San Francisco in Week 3. Still the Bears defense has the edge in this one. The Bears have won 6 straight at home, and the home team has covered in 7 of the Bears last 8 games.”
Minnesota Vikings vs. Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisc.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Packers (-2.5)
Sports Betting Dime: Vikings 24.1, Packers 13.5
The site predicts that the Vikings will win the NFL Week 4 game against the Packers by just over 10 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Houston Texans
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: NRG Stadium, Houston
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Texans (-4.5)
The Arizona Republic: Texans 21, Jaguars 17
Jeremy Cluff writes: “The Texans were humbled by the Vikings in Week 3. C.J. Stroud and company will get back on track against the Jaguars in Week 4.”
Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium, Indianapolis
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Steelers (-1.5)
Covers.com: Take the under (40).
“Mike Tomlin’s defense ranks No. 1 in EPA allowed and travels to Indy in Week 4, facing an Indianapolis Colts club that was outgained and had just 15 first downs against the Bears on Sunday.”
Bookies.com: Go with the Steelers moneyline (-125).
“The Steelers are 3-0 outright and against the spread. Pittsburgh’s offense reached the end zone twice in their win over the Chargers – which was one more TD than the Steelers offense had scored in their first two games. The Steelers defense will control this game, as well. Anthony Richardson has a booming arm. But he’s still more or less a rookie QB (it’s is his 8th career start) going up against a Mike Tomlin defense. That usually doesn’t end well.”
Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, N.J.
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Jets (-7)
Bookies.com: Take the Jets.
“The Jets defense against a rookie QB (in Bo Nix) could lead to an ugly affair for the visitors. Aaron Rodgers was vintage against New England, and he and BFF/offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett seek payback against Hackett’s old team. Asking the Jets to cover a 7.5-point line at home is the stuff of folly, except for this week. It’s personal. And this line did not move after the Broncos’ win at Tampa Bay. Something’s up here.”
Philadelphia Eagles vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Fla.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Eagles (-2.5)
Delaware News Journal: Eagles 26, Buccaneers 20
Martin Frank writes, “Buccaneers coach Todd Bowles has had Hurts and the Eagles’ number the last two times in the playoffs (2021 and 2023 wild-card rounds) as the Bucs have won by a combined score of 63-24. It’ll take another ball-control game from Hurts and Saquon Barkley to pull this one out.”
Washington Commanders vs. Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium, Glendale, Ariz.
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Cardinals (-5)
The Arizona Republic: Cardinals 31, Commanders 20
Jeremy Cluff writes, “Washington QB Jayden Daniels started his college career at Arizona State. Commanders OC Kliff Kingsbury previously coached the Cardinals. Their homecomings won’t go well.”
ESPN: Take the Cardinals
The site’s predictor sees this game as all Arizona, putting the Cardinals’ chances to win at 63.7%.
New England Patriots vs. San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium, Santa Clara, Calif
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: 49ers (-10.5)
Picks and Parlays: San Francisco 49ers 27, New England Patriots 21
Cameron Ross writes, “The Niners should do enough on their home field to get the win but the issues and injuries will prevent a cover. Take New England to do enough this week to cover the number as they pursue the out right underdog win.”
Dimers: 49ers 27, Patriots 17
The site states, “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Patriots a win probability of 15%, while the 49ers have a win probability of 85%.”
Kansas City Chiefs vs. Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, Calif.
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Chiefs (-7)
The Arizona Republic: Chiefs 20, Chargers 17
Jeremy Cluff writes, “It hasn’t been pretty, but the Chiefs just find ways to win. Patrick Mahomes will find a way to win this game in Los Angeles.”
Cleveland Browns vs. Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Browns (-1)
Sports Betting Dime: Browns 16.9, Raiders 16.3
An early week look has this algorithm picking the Browns just barely.
The Arizona Republic: Raiders 17, Browns 13
Cluff writes, “This game could be very low-scoring due to the struggles of both offenses. We trust the home team’s offense a little more right now.”
Buffalo Bills vs. Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Sunday, September 29
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore
- TV: NBC, Universo
- Streaming: Peacock, Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Ravens (-2.5)
Dimers: Ravens 25, Bills 22
The site states: “After extensive simulations, our model gives the Bills a win probability of 41%, while the Ravens have a win probability of 59%.”
Tennessee Titans vs. Miami Dolphins
- Date: Monday, September 30
- Time: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium
- TV: ESPN
- Streaming: Fubo, NFL+
- Spread: Titans (-1)
Covers.com: Take the Titans. “With Tua Tagovailoa on the IR (concussion) and Skylar Thompson leaving the loss to Seattle with a “pretty painful” rib injury, Mike McDaniel is scrambling. Luckily, he has an extra day to get his QB quandary figured out. … Unluckily, Miami faces a Tennessee defense doing good things through the first three weeks. The Titans are 11th in EPA allowed per play, own the fourth-lowest success rate allowed per dropback (37.2%), and have seven total sacks.”
Seattle Seahawks vs. Detroit Lions
- Date: Monday, September 30
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field, Detroit
- TV: ABC
- Streaming: ESPN+, Fubo
- Spread: Lions (-4.5)
Covers.com: Take the over. “The Detroit Lions offense looked a little better in Week 3, especially inside the red zone, but it does take on a Seahawks defense that’s been transformed under head coach Mike Macdonald. … As for the Seahawks offense, it ironed out its own red zone woes in Week 3 and has big play potential with Geno Smith and his talented receivers should Sunday’s showdown turn into a shootout. Smith sees a significant uptick in output when playing indoors, watching his passer rating soar inside domes.”
