Admin December 31, 2024
NFL Overreactions Week 17
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon breaks down this weeks NFL matchups.
Sports Seriously
There’s just one game left until the NFL playoffs, and scheduling powers that be within the league have provided a Week 18 schedule filled with divisional games and major stakes.
Three division titles, postseason seeding and the last AFC wild-card spot are among the prizes still up for grabs as the 2024 regular season comes to a close, right up until the very end when the Minnesota Vikings and Detroit Lions play on “Sunday Night Football” with the NFC North division title and the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoff bracket riding on the result.
The loser will be the No. 5 seed and play on the road against either the Tampa Bay Buccaneers or Atlanta Falcons, with the Buccaneers in the driver’s seat needing a win over the New Orleans Saints to win the NFC South. On Saturday, the Baltimore Ravens control their own destiny in the AFC North division race, but a loss to the Cleveland Browns would give the Pittsburgh Steelers a chance to win the division if they beat the Cincinnati Bengals.
The Bengals, meanwhile, are in pursuit of the final AFC wild-card spot along with the Denver Broncos and Miami Dolphins. There’s also seeding and potential playoff matchup implications at stake for wild-card teams like the Los Angeles Chargers, Green Bay Packers and Washington Commanders in their final regular-season game. The New England Patriots, on the other hand, can secure the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL draft with one last loss.
With so much happening at once, Week 18 appears almost certain to be dramatic. Analysts and experts are already weighing in on what might happen, so here is an early look at picks and predictions for every game on the schedule.
NFL Week 18 game predictions, picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday, Dec. 30
Cleveland Browns at Baltimore Ravens
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 4
- Time: 4:30 p.m. ET
- Location: M&T Bank Stadium (Baltimore)
- TV: ABC, ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket), NFL+, Fubo
- Spread: Ravens (-17.5)
Arizona Republic: Ravens 30, Browns 10
“The Browns have scored 16 combined points in their last three games. That’s not going to cut it against the Ravens.”
Pro Football Network: Ravens 24, Browns 7
“If the Browns start (Dorian) Thompson-Robinson again, the Ravens should win this game easily enough to allow them to rest starters in the fourth quarter. That could hurt Baltimore’s ability to cover 17.5 … It wouldn’t be a huge surprise if the Browns made the call to go back to Jameis Winston. Unless Cleveland feels the need to see more from DTR, Winston gives the Browns the best chance to win — assuming they want to.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Saturday, Jan. 4
- Time: 8 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV: ABC, ESPN
- Streaming: ESPN+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Bengals (-1.5)
Betting Pros: Take the Bengals
“Cincinnati has been on a tear of late … The Steelers have lost three consecutive games and have allowed at least 27 points in all three matchups. The players are calling each other out, saying there’s a defensive player who isn’t on the same page. It’ll be tough for the defense to get on the same page against this Cincinnati (offense) right now.”
Bookies.com: Lay the points with Cincinnati
“The Steelers will know if the AFC North is still a possibility when this game begins. Even without the AFC North on the line, the Steelers can still increase their playoff seed with a win. But the Bengals must win to keep their postseason hopes alive.”
Watch Saturday’s NFL games with Fubo
Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Mercedes-Benz Stadium (Atlanta)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Falcons (-7.5)
Sportsnaut: Falcons 31, Panthers 24
“The Carolina Panthers have an opportunity to play spoiler in Week 18, as a win would knock the Atlanta Falcons out of the playoff mix. However, the absence of running back Chuba Hubbard in combination with the worst defense in the NFL … doesn’t bode well for Carolina.”
BetMGM: Atlanta must win, but Panthers cover
“This game presents an interesting dilemma for bettors. From a betting calculus standpoint, it’s a home run spot on the Panthers. All the moneyline parlays, teasers and against the spread bets are likely to hit Atlanta. … The last time these sides met, Atlanta rushed for 198 yards, their best output on the ground this season. A slight case for optimism does exist … given Carolina’s recent offensive improvements and the fact they’ve covered four of their previous six games.”
Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Commanders (-4)
Arizona Republic: Commanders 23, Cowboys 20
“The Commanders are in the postseason after winning their fourth straight game. They’ll make it five straight wins against Dallas.”
Pro Football Network: Commanders 23, Cowboys 16
“Washington’s defense is prone to a collapse, especially against the run. The metrics tell us the Commanders should dominate, but they told us that last time out too. Ultimately, the Commanders have more to play for.”
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lambeau Field (Green Bay, Wisconsin)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Packers (-9)
Bookies.com: Packers win
“The Packers are in the playoffs but need a win here to keep pace with Washington in the battle for seeding in the No. 6 and No. 7 spot. … This will be the swan song for Bears interim head coach Thomas Brown- who has lost 4 straight since taking over forMatt Eberflus. No reason for Caleb Williams to start producing points now.”
Sportsnaut: Packers 27, Bears 21
“The Packers should still not have much trouble dismantling the Chicago Bears, but protecting some guys for the Wild Card round could make the final score closer.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Colts (-5.5)
Pro Football Network: Colts 24, Jaguars 20
“Whether it’s Joe Flacco or Anthony Richardson under center, both are likely to play hard to make a case for their roles going forward. Similarly, Mac Jones is auditioning for a role in 2025, whether that be with the Jacksonville Jaguars or somewhere else.”
Arizona Republic: Colts 24, Jaguars 14
“The Colts missed a chance to stay alive in the postseason race with its embarrassing loss to the Giants. Indianapolis will end the season with a win against the Jaguars.”
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Bills (-3)
Sportsnaut: Bills 28, Patriots 21
“With the Buffalo Bills locked into the AFC’s No. 2 seed, there’s no incentive to play starters for very long in Week 18. Josh Allen might get a few drives to pad his NFL stats for MVP, but the primary motivation for the Bills coaching staff in this one should be coming out of Sunday’s game healthy.”
Pro Football Network: Patriots 23, Bills 16
“We saw the Patriots play the Bills close in Week 15, and there is every chance Jerod Mayo and his team will want to make a statement after being booed and jeered at home in a national spotlight in Week 17.”
New York Giants at Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Eagles (-3)
Arizona Republic: Eagles 23, Giants 15
“Who will play QB for the Eagles in this game? It might not matter. Drew Lock and the Giants impressed in Week 17, but Philadelphia’s defense will deliver at home.”
Pro Football Network: Giants 23, Eagles 20
“The line here tells you that the sportsbooks cannot get a read on what the Philadelphia Eagles will do this week. They are locked into the No. 2 seed, but they have a running back in Saquon Barkley who is just 100 yards from the rushing record. … Even if Barkley and the starting offensive line play, the Eagles will likely bench them the moment he beats the record. That could mean we see a weird situation where Philadelphia goes to all backups.”
New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Raymond James Stadium (Tampa, Florida)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Buccaneers (-13)
BetMGM: Bucs blowout (especially if no Alvin Kamara)
“Tampa Bay’s offense should move the ball at will against a weak New Orleans defense. … In the last head-to-head meeting, the Bucs blitzed New Orleans for 594 yards of offense, their best output of the season. That game also featured a 27-0 second half win for the Buccaneers.”
Sportsnaut: Buccaneers 34, Saints 17
“There are two primary motivations for Baker Mayfield and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 18. First, defeating the New Orleans Saints so the Bucs can host a wild-card game. Second, get Mike Williams 85 receiving yards so he can finish with his 11th consecutive 1,000-yard season. Expect both to be achieved on Sunday afternoon.”
Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Titans (-1)
Pro Football Network: Titans 16, Texans 10
“The Texans have absolutely nothing to play for, so other than letting some of their starters play a little to keep in rhythm, they may play backups throughout. Meanwhile, the Titans could also end up picking first if they lose and the Patriots beat the Bills … (Titans coach) Brian Callahan has too much still to prove as a head coach and whoever he puts at quarterback will be desperate to prove that they deserve a role in some form in 2025.”
Sportsnaut: Texans 27, Titans 20
“The Tennessee Titans have clearly thrown in the towel on this season and a loss would lock them into a top-three pick. It sets up the most favorable situation for the Houston Texans, who can at least attempt to use this as a get-right game for the offense.”
San Francisco 49ers at Arizona Cardinals
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: State Farm Stadium (Glendale, Arizona)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: 49ers (-1)
Arizona Republic: Cardinals 24, 49ers 20
“The Super Bowl hangover hit the 49ers hard this season and the rough season will get worse with a loss to the Cardinals in the season finale. Arizona is a respectable 5-3 at home.”
Bookies.com: Cardinals win
“The 49ers were decimated by injuries and became the latest victim of the NFL’s “Post-Super Bowl Loss” hangovers. The Cardinals never quite got it going this season in a division that was up for grabs until this past weekend. Arizona overperformed on the line, going 10-6 despite a 7-9 record. They should win this one outright.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Broncos (-10)
Betting Pros: Chiefs can cover without stars
“While, yes, the Chiefs will bench their top players, Kansas City should still have a capable quarterback under center (Carson Wentz) and a bunch of players who are cultural fits. But the Chiefs likely want to be careful not to sit everyone. At the end of the day, the Chiefs won’t play another game for 24 days. That’s a long time for some players not to see the field.”
Pro Football Network: Broncos 20, Chiefs 13
“If Kansas City does rest its starters, then the Denver Broncos should win by at least a touchdown. They have the motivation factor … The Chiefs’ starters only just beat the Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium earlier this season, so in theory, their backups should lose on the road.”
Seattle Seahawks at Los Angeles Rams
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Seahawks (-3)
Bookies.com: Rams keep rolling
“The Seahawks were eliminated from the playoffs Sunday night by virtue of the Commanders beating the Falcons. That outcome also elevated the Rams into the top spot in the division due to the strength of the tiebreaker. The Rams began the season 1-4 before winning 9 of 11. The Rams are on a roll against the spread, as well, having covered in 5 of 7 games. The Rams still have a shot at the No. 3 seed in the NFC with a win and a Tampa Bay loss.”
Arizona Republic: Seahawks 20, Rams 13
“This game could have been for the NFC West title if some things had fallen into place for Seattle, but now it really doesn’t mean much with the Rams in the postseason.”
Los Angeles Chargers at Las Vegas Raiders
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Allegiant Stadium (Las Vegas)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Chargers (-5.5)
BetMGM: Back the Chargers
“A win renders (the Chargers’) playoff lives significantly easier. … That should lead to a full effort from Harbaugh’s squad. From a matchup standpoint, bettors should be skeptical about how Las Vegas moves the ball on Sunday.”
ESPN: Chargers are the pick
“The Chargers will have a big incentive to win their Sunday game against the Raiders if the Steelers lose to the Bengals on Saturday, as a Chargers win would give them the No. 5 seed and a draw against the AFC South champion Houston Texans – far preferable to a trip to Baltimore or Pittsburgh. … Even if (Harbaugh) benches Justin Herbert, backup Taylor Heinicke will be the better of the two quarterbacks in this game.”
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Dolphins (-1)
BetMGM: Back the Jets (if Tua doesn’t play)
“Right now, this line signals that Tyler Huntley will start his second straight game. But if the Dolphins return Tua Tagovailoa to the lineup, this number likely balloons a few points. As gross as it seems backing the Jets, their performance in Miami leaves room for optimism. Per Pro Football Focus, that game marks their second-best grade under Jeff Ulbrich.”
Covers.com: Ride the Dolphins
“Should Tua play, this spread will go through the key number and likely sit at Dolphins -4 or higher. If you like a motivated Miami team against whatever the Jets are right now, take the favorite at -2.5 now.”
Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Jan. 5
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock, Fubo
- Spread: Lions (-3)
Bookies.com: Take the Vikings
“(Sam Darnold) and the Vikings are tops against the spread in the NFL this season at 11-4-1. The Lions have been decimated by injuries but have only lost to Buffalo since Week 2. They failed to cover in 4 of 5 games before Week 16.”
Pro Football Network: Lions 30, Vikings 27
“The metrics peg these two sides as relatively even, with the Lions having a slight advantage overall. Both have top-five defenses on the season, with the Vikings narrowly ahead. Detroit’s offense ranks top two entering Monday Night Football, while Minnesota sits 10th. The Lions have also played the 12th-toughest schedule compared to the 21st for the Vikings.”
Watch Lions vs. Vikings on Peacock
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