NFL Week 14 picks, best upset bets: Top teams to bet against the spread

Admin December 6, 2024

After all 32 NFL teams were in action for the holiday week, six teams are finally taking their byes in Week 14. The Baltimore Ravens, Denver Broncos, Houston Texans, Indianapolis Colts, New England Patriots, and Washington Commanders are all off.

Still, there are plenty of meaningful games on the schedule. Playoff hopefuls Atlanta and Minnesota face off, as do AFC West rivals Los Angeles and Kansas City. Some games could change who holds the top picks in the 2025 NFL Draft as the 2-10 Jacksonville Jaguars head on the road to play the 3-9 Tennessee Titans.

This slate includes some interesting lines from BetMGM. We went 3-0 with our picks last week, so we feel confident heading into Week 14. Here are our picks for Sunday’s action:

Best picks against the spread NFL Week 14

Buffalo Bills (-4) at Los Angeles Rams

The Buffalo Bills returned from their bye and looked dominant in every phase against the 49ers. They’ve now won seven in a row and scored at least 30 points in six. The defense welcomed back linebacker Matt Milano for the first time this season after he recovered from multiple injuries.

Since beating Minnesota on “Thursday Night Football” in Week 8, the Rams have wins over Seattle (26-20 in overtime), New England (28-22), and New Orleans (21-14). Those teams are a combined 14-23. In that span, they lost to Miami at 23-15 at home and were run over by Philadelphia at 37-20 at home as well.

The Rams have the fifth-worst run defense in the league. According to expected points added data, the Bills are the third-best running team on a per-play basis in the NFL. Sean McDermott and Sean McVay have faced off four times, twice as coordinators and twice as head coaches. McDermott is 4-0 and has held McVay’s offenses in Los Angeles and Washington to 18 points per game.

Buffalo is rolling and this could easily be a double-digit win for the Bills.

Best upset picks of NFL Week 14

Seattle Seahawks (+2.5) at Arizona Cardinals

The Seattle Seahawks have won three straight, most recently a comeback win over the New York Jets that featured a bit of everything. Two fumbled kickoffs, a kickoff return touchdown, and a 92-yard pick-six by 300-pound defensive lineman Leonard Williams made for a memorable Sunday in New York.

This week, they face a Cardinals team they beat pretty convincingly two weeks ago, 16-6. Arizona hung tough with Minnesota last week, but the Seahawks controlled the game the last time these teams met. Seattle’s defense has improved greatly since the bye, and the offense has the talent to take off.

Even if Arizona plays like last week, it’s odd that Seattle is nearly a field-goal underdog. Take them to get the upset this week.

Chicago Bears (+4) at San Francisco 49ers

The San Francisco 49ers have been outscored 73-20 over their last two games. That’s the worst two-game stretch for the franchise since coach Kyle Shanahan’s first season with the team in 2017 when the 49ers lost to the Cowboys 40-10 and the Eagles 33-10 in consecutive weeks.

Chicago has lost six straight, most recently 23-20 to the Lions on Thanksgiving, which featured clock management issues. It was so terrible that the franchise made a coaching change mid-season for the first time since World War II. Even if the Bears offense takes a slight step back with interim offensive coordinator Thomas Brown bumped up to interim head coach, they have a chance to end their losing streak this week.

The Bears rank sixth in the NFL in turnovers forced; San Francisco has turned the ball over six times in the last two weeks. The 49ers will be down to their third-string running back and could be without stars Trent Williams and Nick Bosa. They’ve won by more than three points just once since Week 8.

In the last three weeks, Chicago has lost by three or fewer to Detroit, Minnesota, and Green Bay. All of those teams are better right now than San Francisco. The Bears are absolutely in this.