Admin November 22, 2024
NFL Week 12 picks: Why you should consider Broncos and Lions on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets for Sunday’s games.
Week 12 of the NFL season features seven divisional games, starting with an AFC North matchup on “Thursday Night Football” between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns. In all, every division except the NFC South has a matchup this weekend. Sunday features historic rivalries like the Broncos and Raiders, Dallas and Washington, and the Patriots and Dolphins.
There are also games between playoff hopefuls. The San Francisco 49ers are at the bottom of the NFC West but just one game behind leader Arizona in the win column and face current NFC No. 7 seed Green Bay on the road. The Rams, also 5-5, host the hottest team in the NFL right now, the Philadelphia Eagles, with massive playoff implications.
If you’re looking to add some intrigue to the day, here are three underdogs who could surprise on Sunday, with odds from BetMGM:
Best upset picks of NFL Week 12
Chicago Bears (+3.5) vs. Minnesota Vikings
Chicago has dropped four straight following its bye. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league and face one of the best defenses in the NFL. Still, they nearly pulled off a win against the Packers at home, a team that was favored by 5.5 points. A blocked field goal as time expired kept them from winning outright, but they still beat the spread.
Something similar could happen this week. The Bears had their best day on offense against Green Bay since Week 5. They’re plus-four in the turnover margin in the last three weeks. Home underdogs like Chicago are 25-36-1 against the spread this season, but Minnesota is 2-2 against the spread as a road favorite. Chicago’s forced four turnovers in the last three games. If Sam Darnold throws an interception (or two), a 24-21 kind of contest could be the outcome at Soldier Field.
Carolina Panthers (+11) vs. Kansas City Chiefs
To be clear, I don’t think the Panthers can win this outright, but they can beat the spread coming out of their bye. The offense has been playing better in recent weeks, and Kansas City just suffered its first loss in 2024, behind its worst performance of the season on offense.
The Chiefs are 9-1, but only one of those wins was by more than 10 points: Week 5 over the New Orleans Saints. The Chiefs win this season by leaning on their defense and grinding teams down, not building insurmountable leads. They’re 5-5 against the spread this year and Kansas City has scored 30 points just once this season and needed overtime to get there. Carolina can hang in, score a late touchdown to make it 20-10, and beat the spread at home.
New England Patriots (+7.5) at Miami Dolphins
Like the Panthers, it’ll be tough for the Patriots to get a win on the road outright versus Miami. They haven’t won in Hard Rock Stadium since Sept. 15, 2019, in a 49-0 blowout featuring a Tom Brady touchdown pass to Antonio Brown.
Miami is the better team but far from infallible at home. The Dolphins are 1-4 against the spread as a home favorite, the worst record for any team in the league with at least five games as a home favorite. New England’s offense is good enough to keep them in it, and they’ve played one-score games three times in the last four weeks, the lone exception being the 19-3 win over Chicago.