Admin November 11, 2024
NFL Overreactions Week 10
Sports Seriously’s Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the wildest games in NFL Week 10.
Sports Seriously
Week 11 of the 2024 NFL season is setting up to be a memorable slate of games.
The schedule is jam-packed with conference and divisional matchups that could determine the trajectory of the next couple months leading into the playoffs, starting with a battle at the top of the NFC East between the Philadelphia Eagles and Washington Commanders on “Thursday Night Football.”
On Sunday this week, the Pittsburgh Steelers host the Baltimore Ravens in a matchup that will determine first place in the AFC Central during the early kickoff window. Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes, meanwhile, meet again when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs in a late Sunday afternoon game that will help determine home-field advantage in the postseason for the AFC.
There’s also an intriguing Sunday night game featuring the surging Los Angeles Chargers and the Cincinnati Bengals, who are playing for their playoff lives after a slow start to the season. And don’t forget the renewal of the league’s longest rivalry when the Green Bay Packers visit the Chicago Bears in NFC North action.
NFL analysts are already weighing in on what might happen. Here is an early look at picks and predictions for every game on the Week 11 schedule:
NFL Week 11 game predictions, picks
Odds courtesy of BetMGM as of Monday, Nov. 11
Washington Commanders at Philadelphia Eagles
- Date: Thursday, Nov. 14
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia)
- TV: None
- Streaming: Amazon Prime Video
- Spread: Eagles (-3)
∎ ESPN: Take the points with Washington
“Even though Washington lost to the Steelers in Week 10, that was a coin flip game that they easily could have won. … Nick Sirianni and the Eagles are coming off a dominant win over the Dallas Cowboys, but that should be excused by the poor state of the Cowboys more than anything. I trust Jayden Daniels and Dan Quinn to keep this game close.”
∎ Pro Football Network: Eagles 24, Commanders 21
“The edge here goes with the home team and the one with the better defense. The Eagles should also have the advantage of a veteran quarterback playing on a short week, but the coaching advantage likely resides with Washington and Dan Quinn.”
Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Soldier Field (Chicago)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Packers (-6.5)
“The Bears are struggling right now. They haven’t scored a touchdown on their last 23 offensive possessions, and daily we see analysts break down how the failures are from the top down, from scheme to execution, from coach to design to player. It just doesn’t sound like something that will be fixed in six days. The Packers, meanwhile, have had a bye week to get healthier and to reset after their 10-point loss to the Detroit Lions in Week 9.”
∎ Betting Pros: Packers win
“This is a good spot to take Green Bay on the moneyline. Jordan Love should be back healthier after the Packers’ bye week. Chicago, meanwhile, looks like they have quit on the season.”
Jacksonville Jaguars at Detroit Lions
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Ford Field (Detroit)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Lions (-13)
∎ Pro Football Network: Lions 38, Jaguars 10
“The Jaguars’ defense ranks 30th this season, and their offense is just 16th. And that was with (Trevor) Lawrence under center for the majority of the year. Laying 13 points is tough, but we saw the Lions sweep aside the Cowboys (47-9) and Titans (52-14), who are similar-level teams to the Jaguars.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Lions 31, Jaguars 17
“The Lions are the biggest favorite of the week and for good reason. They are rolling (seven straight wins), while the Jaguars are reeling (three straight losses). We see no reason to think that will change.”
Las Vegas Raiders at Miami Dolphins
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami Gardens, Florida)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Dolphins (-7)
∎ Pro Football Network: Dolphins 27, Raiders 17
“Miami’s offense is closer to being a top-10 unit when Tua Tagovailoa is under center and has top-five potential. The Las Vegas Raiders just fired their offensive staff after ranking as the 29th-best offense in the NFL this season.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Dolphins 27, Raiders 16
“The Raiders have the Denver Broncos, Kansas City Chiefs, Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Atlanta Falcons up next after the Dolphins. The current five-game losing streak could last a lot longer.”
Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Gillette Stadium (Foxborough, Massachusetts)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Rams (-5.5)
∎ Betting Pros: Rams win
“Los Angeles is starting to click as its offense is legit. Although New England did beat Chicago last week, that is more about how bad the Bears are. The Rams’ offensive line is now healthy, which should help L.A. run all over New England and cruise to a big win on the road.”
∎ Pro Football Network: Rams 20, Patriots 17
“The New England Patriots have been tough in many games this season, and Drake Maye has definitely made this offense more competitive. However, they are still the 31st-ranked team in terms of PR+, so they shouldn’t be a major threat to the Los Angeles Rams. … The great equalizer here is that we have a dome team heading east to play what is likely to be, at the very least, a cold-weather game in New England.”
Cleveland Browns at New Orleans Saints
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Caesars Superdome (New Orleans)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Saints (-1)
∎ Arizona Republic: Saints 23, Browns 20
“The Saints ended a seven-game skid in Week 10. Derek Carr and company will start a win streak against Jameis Winston and the Browns.”
∎ Pro Football Network: Browns 20, Saints 17
“Cleveland’s defense is a top-10 unit this season, and when Winston plays well, they are a league-average offense.”
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Acrisure Stadium (Pittsburgh)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Ravens (-3)
∎ ESPN: Steelers are the pick
“In the long, storied history of the Mike Tomlin vs. John Harbaugh rivalry, the underdog is a staggering 23-6-3 against the spread.”
∎ Action Network: Take the points with Pittsburgh
“The weakest unit here is Baltimore’s pass defense, and Russell Wilson’s moon balls can hit explosive plays any time, especially to targets like George Pickens, who can seemingly catch anything thrown his way. Lamar Jackson has four career touchdowns against Pittsburgh in six seasons, with the only win coming back in 2019.”
Minnesota Vikings at Tennessee Titans
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: Nissan Stadium (Nashville, Tennessee)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Vikings (-6)
∎ Arizona Republic: Vikings 21, Titans 10
“Sam Darnold already has had 10 passes intercepted this season. He has to avoid the dumb mistakes if the Vikings want to have a chance to catch the Lions in the NFC North. The Titans provide him a great chance to do that.”
∎ Pro Football Network: Vikings 24, Titans 10
“The Vikings have the edge across the board, and if Darnold can just stop making as many mistakes, they should be capable of comfortably winning against this Tennessee Titans team. There’s a huge gulf in talent between these teams.”
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 1 p.m. ET
- Location: MetLife Stadium (East Rutherford, New Jersey)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Jets (-3)
∎ Pro Football Network: Jets 21, Colts 20
“The edge here goes to New York being at home and facing a dome team in mid-November, but both of them are tough to trust in any given week. In a pick ’em format, the Jets are the play here, but laying points with them is tough to do.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Colts 23, Jets 17
“This game was originally scheduled to be the Sunday Night Football game this week. While it’s not worthy of that, it is worth keeping an eye on with both of these teams in dire need of a win. Look for the Colts to get it in a road upset.”
Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Empower Field at Mile High (Denver)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Broncos (-1.5)
∎ ESPN: Go with Denver at home
“The AFC wild-card race is still in reach (for the Broncos) and they’re heading back to their home stadium. I continue looking to fade the Falcons against any team that can pressure (Kirk) Cousins in the pocket, as his lack of mobility is a crippling weakness to this passing game. The Broncos certainly fit that bill.”
∎ Pro Football Network: Broncos 24, Falcons 13
“Denver’s defense is the best unit in this game, while the Falcons’ defense ranks as the worst. The concern with Denver is that its offense can struggle to put a game out of sight, which can leave them vulnerable.”
Seattle Seahawks at San Francisco 49ers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 4:05 p.m. ET
- Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
- TV: FOX
- Streaming: NFL+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: 49ers (-6.5)
∎ Arizona Republic: 49ers 28, Seahawks 23
“The NFC West is perhaps the most interesting division in the NFL from top to bottom this season. The Seahawks had a week to rest up for this game, but the 49ers had Christian McCaffrey back in Week 10.”
∎ Betting Pros: 49ers beat Seattle again
“Seattle will struggle to stop the 49ers’ offense, while Geno Smith will likely turn the ball over to help the 49ers win.”
Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 4:25 p.m. ET
- Location: Highmark Stadium (Orchard Park, New York)
- TV: CBS
- Streaming: NFL+, Paramount+, YouTube TV (NFL Sunday Ticket) or Fubo
- Spread: Bills (-2.5)
∎ Pro Football Network: Chiefs 24, Bills 21
“this game could significantly impact who ends up with the No. 1 seed and home-field advantage in that potential second meeting. … Both have top-10 offenses and defenses that rank just outside the top 10. The Chiefs have faced a tougher schedule to this point, so they may be more battle-hardened if the game is close in the fourth quarter.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Bills 27, Chiefs 24
“Kansas City brings a perfect 9-0 record into this game (and has won 15 straight dating to last season), but the Bills have won five in a row and are a perfect 4-0 at Highmark Stadium. Josh Allen and Buffalo will win a thriller over Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs.”
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers
- Date: Sunday, Nov. 17
- Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
- Location: SoFi Stadium (Inglewood, California)
- TV: NBC
- Streaming: Peacock, Fubo
- Spread: Chargers (-1)
“Los Angeles’ vaunted defense has faced two opponents that entered the weekend in the top 19 in offensive DVOA. It also lost both games against the Chiefs and the Cardinals at home and hasn’t faced a top-10 pass offense yet. However, Cincinnati is a top-five offense.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Bengals 21, Chargers 17
“This game is a must-win for the 4-6 Bengals, but it won’t come easy. The Chargers have allowed an NFL-low 118 points all season. Cincinnati is desperate, however, and desperate teams can be dangerous.”
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys
- Date: Monday, Nov. 18
- Time: 8:15 p.m. ET
- Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, Texas)
- TV: ABC, ESPN, ESPN2
- Streaming: ESPN+, Fubo
- Spread: Texans (-7.5)
∎ Pro Football Network: Texans 24, Cowboys 13
“The Dallas Cowboys are in all kinds of trouble. They weren’t a good team with Dak Prescott under center, and with Cooper Rush/Trey Lance, they looked thoroughly hapless. If the Texans cannot put away a team with one of the worst quarterback situations right now … then there will be some serious alarm bells.”
∎ Arizona Republic: Texans 27, Cowboys 15
“The Cowboys are a train wreck. They have lost four in a row and they are 0-4 at home this season. We don’t see those skids ending on ‘Monday Night Football.’ “
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