I went 11-5 in Week 13. Normally that’s great news. But over the course of Thanksgiving weekend, it stunk.
Home teams failed to protect their turf, turning almost all my coin flip games into losses. While I wallowed, our fellow experts here at FTW thrived. Three different pickers landed on 15-1 records in a 16-game slate. The second-worst record in our seven-person cabal was 13-3.
Week 14 offers a shot at redemption. But instead of tilting and trying to protect my slim lead over the rest of FTW, I took a look at this week’s schedule and picked almost entirely chalk. Turns out, the week after Thanksgiving is short on fireworks games after Thursday night’s Green Bay Packers-Detroit Lions showdown.
Still, there were a few teams that gave me pause. Are the Seattle Seahawks trustable? Does Kirk Cousins have any juice left for a revenge game (against the franchise that dutifully paid him more than $185 million)? Is there any reason to trust the New York Jets (no).
Let’s see if we can answer those questions and get back on track. I ended 2023 as Pickwatch’s top expert in a field of hundreds. In fact, I’m now doing some side work in Pickwatch’s VIP Discord channels if you want to talk more about these games.
Joining me for 2024 is a six-person panel ranging from FTW editors (Charles Curtis, Mary Clarke) to betting analysts (Prince Grimes) to NFL writers (Robert Zeglinski, Andrew Joseph and Meghan Hall). Here are our Week 14 picks:
| Game | Christian | Robert | Charles |
| Packers at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Jets at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Falcons at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Panthers at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Saints at Giants | Saints | Saints | Saints |
| Raiders at Buccaneers | Bucs | Buccaneers | Buccaneers |
| Jaguars at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Browns at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Seahawks? | Seahawks | Cardinals |
| Bills at Rams | Bills | Bills | Bills |
| Bears at 49ers | 49ers | Bears | 49ers |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs? | Chargers | Chiefs |
| Bengals at Cowboys | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Last week: | 11-5 | 13-3 | 15-1 |
| Year to date: | 133-62 (.682) | 126-69 (.646) | 131-64 (.672) |
and:
| Game | Mary | Andrew | Prince | Meg |
| Packers at Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions | Lions |
| Jets at Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins | Dolphins |
| Falcons at Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings | Vikings |
| Panthers at Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles | Eagles |
| Saints at Giants | Saints | Saints | Saints | Saints |
| Raiders at Buccaneers | Buccaneers | Bucs | Bucs | Bucs |
| Jaguars at Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans | Titans |
| Browns at Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers | Steelers |
| Seahawks at Cardinals | Seahawks | Seahawks | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Bills at Rams | Bills | Rams | Bills | Bills |
| Bears at 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers | 49ers |
| Chargers at Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs | Chiefs |
| Bengals at Cowboys | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals | Bengals |
| Last week: | 15-1 | 14-2 | 15-1 | 14-2 |
| Year to date: | 119-61 (.661) | 122-60 (.670) | 128-67 (.656) | 104-48 (.684) |
Since our editing software occasionally struggles to make these picks super clear, here they are in an easier to read (but impossible to cut and paste) jpg:
Let’s break down three games based on what I do and don’t like.
Katie Stratman-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
It’s a showdown between Joe Burrow and Cooper Rush. The Bengals’ defense has approximately 1,000 flaws but Dallas lacks the depth to exploit most of them. Cincinnati seriously, thoroughly, no-backsies cannot afford to lose this game.
Why I don’t like this pick:
Every time I think the Bengals have hit their must-win point, they go ahead and lose. The Cowboys are on a two-game winning streak and their defense has created eight turnovers the last four weeks. Cincinnati’s defense might find a way to taste defeat once more.
Last week: 1-0
2024 to date: 10-3 (.769)
Brett Davis-Imagn Images
Why I like this pick:
It’s the Chiefs, which in 2024 means they will play with their food, potentially not cover, then win anyway via some sort of last second meltdown from their AFC West rival (see Denver, Las Vegas). Kansas City is at home, where it’s undefeated this season, playing an opponent it held to 10 points in a September win. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid are magicians and the Chargers have been prone to deception since the franchise’s inception.
Why I don’t like this pick:
The weather in Kansas City Sunday is actually kinda nice (55 degrees during the day), so this won’t be the kind of frigid hellscape you’d expect from western Missouri in a December night game. Justin Herbert is playing some of the best football of his career and coming off a weak performance against the Falcons, paving the way for a statement game. The Chiefs are doing some 2022 Vikings voodoo in terms of one-score games (8-0) and, at some point, that’s gotta end.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 7-6 (.538)
Luke Hales/Getty Images
Why I like this pick:
I don’t! I agonized over this one! This is a coin flip game and I considered rolling with homefield advantage.
The Cardinals have lost two straight, but those were both on the road against solid teams (Seattle, Minnesota). The Seahawks have won three straight, including a road game against a similarly rated NFC West foe (the San Francisco 49ers). In all, they’ve won four of their five road games this season, which at the very least negates the “Arizona will be boosted in Glendale” idea.
Let’s look at the actual football side of things. Since Week 10, the Cardinals have the NFL’s seventh-best defense. That’s great, but Seattle clocks in at No. 3 as Mike Macdonald begins to figure out his stuff (and do mad scientist stuff like drop Leonard Williams into coverage for a 91-yard pick six). That includes a bottom-five rushing total from opposing quarterbacks — and Arizona is 2-3 when Kyler Murray rushes for fewer than 20 yards (like he did in Week 12’s loss in Washington). Murray, as it turns out, hasn’t beaten Seattle since 2020.
That’s enough to swing the balance of this pick to the Seahawks, even if I don’t love it.
Why I don’t like this pick:
Arizona is nearing its breaking point in the playoff race (but so is Seattle, since a loss here drops either team’s postseason odds under 20 percent). Murray has been a solid quarterback this season, living up to his 2022 contract extension in his first full year back from a torn ACL. The coach that used to torment him, Pete Carroll, is no longer on the Seahawks’ sideline.
Last week: 0-1
2024 to date: 3-10 (.231)
