Admin December 12, 2024
Rams continue to prove they’re a legit threat in the NFC West
Matt Stafford and the Rams are looking to continue their hot-streak and keep pace on the Seahawks in a TNF matchup vs. the 49ers.
Sports Seriously
No NFL division race is tighter than that of the NFC West.
Each of the four divisions in the AFC has at least one team eliminated from all postseason contention. In the NFC, only the NFC South is like the West in that its four teams have not been mathematically eliminated from the division race, even with the Carolina Panthers at 3-10.
However, no other division features all four teams within two games of one another like the NFC West.
Entering Week 15, the Seattle Seahawks are in control, holding a one-game lead over the Los Angeles Rams and two-game leads over the Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers.
Seattle controls its own destiny now. The Seahawks will win the division crown if they win out, but they also have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule in the NFL. So, there’s still room for any of the four teams to come out on top.
With four weeks to play, there are multiple scenarios for a four-way tie for the NFC West title. Not only that but there are also ways for each team to win a possible four-way tiebreaker.
USA TODAY Sports is here to break down every possible winning scenario for all four teams in the NFC West.
NFC West tiebreakers
Seattle Seahawks
The Seahawks currently have the advantage in the NFC West race. They have a game lead over the second-place Los Angeles Rams entering Week 15, so if they win out, they’ll be in the postseason.
The Seahawks’ remaining opponents have a combined winning percentage of .596, which makes their schedule the fifth-toughest in the NFL. They also have a game left on their schedule against the Rams, so winning out is anything but a sure thing.
If the Seahawks are tied with the Rams entering their Week 18 matchup, they would be at a disadvantage. The Rams earned a head-to-head win over the Seahawks in overtime in Week 9, so Seattle will not be able to beat them in a head-to-head tiebreaker.
The Seahawks are also slightly disadvantaged in a three-way tiebreaker involving the Rams. Los Angeles has a 2-1 record against the division compared to Seattle’s mark of 3-2. Those aren’t too far off, but the Rams need to beat the Seahawks in Week 18 to at least render that tiebreaker null. If Los Angeles wins one of its other division games, it could clinch the division record tiebreaker over the Seahawks before their Week 18 matchup.
With that in mind, Seattle’s ideal result would be seeing the 49ers beat the Rams in Week 15. The 49ers are just 1-3 against the division, so they cannot overtake Seattle in that tiebreaker category. San Francisco is also two games back of Seattle in the standings, so the Seahawks would have to cede more ground to see the 49ers overtake them.
As such, Week 15 will be a rare time when Seahawks fans will be backing the 49ers.
Los Angeles Rams
The Rams have the clearest path to challenging the Seahawks. They could earn a head-to-head sweep over the Seahawks, which could prove critical in deciding a two-team tiebreaker. The Rams also have the most games remaining against the division among the four teams. That gives Los Angeles a chance to improve its 2-1 divisional record.
Getting to four wins would position the Rams to win that tiebreaker category, provided they beat the Seahawks in Week 18. At the same time, their focus must remain on beating the 49ers in Week 15, as they could earn a season sweep of San Francisco with a victory. That would virtually guarantee that the Rams would finish ahead of the 49ers, barring a surprising three-game skid to end the season.
The only team the Rams don’t have a natural advantage over is the Cardinals. Arizona beat Los Angeles head-to-head in Week 2, so if the Rams lose their Week 17 matchup, that would give the Cardinals a head-to-head sweep, which would prove crucial if they finish in a two-way tie for the division title or a playoff berth.
So, while the Rams look poised to be the Seahawks’ top challenger, they aren’t out of the woods yet. Sean McVay’s squad must stay hot in its divisional games or risk squandering a golden opportunity to move up in the standings.
If they can beat the 49ers, they will guarantee themselves a top-two spot in the NFC West standings exiting Week 15.
Arizona Cardinals
It may be easy to consider the Cardinals out of the NFC West division title race after their Week 14 loss to the Seahawks, but don’t count them out yet.
As mentioned above, the Seahawks have the fifth-hardest remaining schedule with matchups against the Vikings, Packers, and Rams ahead. The 49ers have a similarly challenging schedule with games against the Lions and Rams still on their schedule. Los Angeles’ schedule is easy on paper – only considering future opponents’ win percentage, their remaining schedule is the 21st-hardest – but it still has three more divisional games.
Meanwhile, Arizona holds the fourth-easiest remaining schedule in the NFL. They’re set to play the 3-10 New England Patriots this week and the 3-10 Carolina Panthers the week after. Those are chances for the Cardinals to gain some ground in the division before closing the season against the Rams and 49ers.
In the several possible scenarios in which not everything goes right for the Cardinals, they’ll hope to avoid a tie with the Seahawks. The only way Arizona would not be eliminated in a tie with Seattle is if the Rams are also tied and clinch a head-to-head sweep over the Seahawks with a Week 18 win.
Otherwise, the Cardinals can clinch head-to-head tiebreakers over the Rams and 49ers with wins in Weeks 17 and 18. Arizona has already taken down each team once earlier this year, and a sweep in the final two weeks would get them to at least eight overall wins and four divisional victories.
Essentially, Arizona is in a relatively tricky spot for the division title.
They’ll need help from the Seahawks’ upcoming opponents, the Packers and Vikings, to give the Cardinals a chance to gain some ground in the standings.
Arizona can only afford one more loss since two more would clinch a losing record. The Seahawks would then need to lose out, and some other very specific things would need to happen for the team to advance past a tie with eight-win Seattle (more on that later).
Starting with “Thursday Night Football,” the Cardinals should root for the Rams in every game Los Angeles has remaining besides in Week 17 when the two NFC West contenders face off. A two or three-way tie that includes the Rams would only help Arizona, so long as the Cardinals beat them in Week 17.
San Francisco 49ers
No team has a bigger uphill battle to climb to win the NFC West than the 49ers.
San Francisco only has one divisional win, and the best it can hope for in its two remaining head-to-head matchups is to split with the Rams and Cardinals. Both teams have already taken down the 49ers once this year.
Even if the 49ers win both of their remaining divisional games, the best it can do is split the head-to-heads and have three divisional wins. However, the Seahawks are already at three divisional wins, and the Rams would reach that mark if they beat Arizona in Week 17 or Seattle in Week 18. The Cardinals are also just a win over Los Angeles from three divisional wins, assuming they lose to the 49ers in this scenario.
Ultimately, San Francisco has no hope of winning a divisional wins tiebreaker. Even if the Rams managed to tie twice, they’d still match the 49ers’ .500 record in division games, triggering another tiebreaker.
The one edge the 49ers could have in the end is their conference record.
All four NFC West teams are .500 or worse in conference games. Once again, assuming San Francisco wins its two remaining division games to split its respective head-to-heads puts the 49ers at six conference wins.
Those wins also prevent the Cardinals from winning more than five conference games. A potential Cardinals win over the Rams in Week 17 would also prevent Los Angeles from winning more than five.
To beat the Seahawks’ conference record, the 49ers would need a win over the Lions and one Seattle loss against either the Vikings, Packers or Bears. If the 49ers lose to the Lions, they’d need two Seahawks losses against those NFC North opponents.
A lot must go right for San Francisco to capture another division title, but the 49ers aren’t out of it yet.
Chaos outcomes
There are several possible four-way tie scenarios.
The most fun way would be the multiple possible scenarios where all four teams finish with an 8-9 record. In each of these scenarios, the Seahawks would have to lose out, and the Rams’ only other win would be against Seattle in Week 18.
In that scenario, the 49ers and Cardinals would defeat the Rams in Weeks 15 and 17. The NFC West title would also come down to those two teams. Here’s how it would shake out in each scenario:
If the Cardinals win in Week 18 to match the rest of the division at eight wins apiece: then Arizona wins the division by head-to-head tiebreakers, having swept San Francisco and Los Angeles to overcome its two losses to Seattle.
If the 49ers win in Week 18 to get to eight wins: then San Francisco lost to both the Dolphins in Week 16 and the Lions in Week 17. For the Cardinals to already have eight wins by Week 18, they’ll have beaten one of the New England Patriots (Week 15) or Carolina Panthers (Week 16).
If the Cardinals beat the Patriots but not the Panthers, the Cardinals win the division by best record in common games.
If the Cardinals beat the Panthers but not the Patriots, the 49ers win the division by conference record.
There are also possibilities for each team to win the division in four-way ties at 9-8.
For each team to be 9-8 and Seahawks win NFC West:
- Seahawks lose three in a row to Packers, Vikings and Bears (Weeks 15-17) BUT defeat Rams (Week 18) AND
- Rams lose to 49ers (Week 15) BUT defeat Jets (Week 16) AND defeat Cardinals (Week 17) AND
- 49ers defeat Dolphins (Week 16) AND defeat Lions (Week 17) (in addition to the win over the Rams, as given in the above) BUT loses to Cardinals (Week 18) AND
- Cardinals win every game besides loss to Rams (Week 17), as given above
For each team to be 9-8 and Rams win NFC West:
- Rams defeat 49ers (Week 15) AND Seahawks (Week 18) BUT lose to Jets (Week 16) and Cardinals (Week 17) AND
- Cardinals defeat Patriots (Week 15) AND Panthers (Week 16) BUT lose to 49ers (Week 18) AND
- 49ers win every game besides loss to Rams (Week 15), as given above AND
- Seahawks only win one game in Weeks 15-17 (vs. Packers, Vikings and Bears, respectively)
For each team to be 9-8 and Cardinals win NFC West:
- Cardinals defeat Rams (Week 17) AND 49ers (Week 18) AND defeat EITHER Patriots (Week 15) OR Panthers (Week 16) AND
- 49ers win every game besides loss to Cardinals (Week 18), as given above AND
- Rams defeat Jets (Week 16) AND Seahawks (Week 18) BUT lose to 49ers (Week 15) and Cardinals (Week 17), as given above AND
- Seahawks only win one game in Weeks 15-17 (vs. Packers, Vikings and Bears, respectively)
For each team to be 9-8 and 49ers win NFC West:
- 49ers defeat Rams (Week 15) AND Cardinals (Week 18) AND defeat EITHER Dolphins (Week 16) OR Lions (Week 17) AND
- Cardinals win every game besides loss to 49ers (Week 18), as given above AND
- Rams defeat Jets (Week 16) AND Seahawks (Week 18) BUT lose to 49ers (Week 15) and Cardinals (Week 17), as given above AND
- Seahawks only win one game in Weeks 15-17 (vs. Packers, Vikings and Bears, respectively)
NFC West standings
- Seattle Seahawks (8-5)
- Los Angeles Rams (7-6)
- Arizona Cardinals (6-7)
- San Francisco 49ers (6-7)