NFL playoffs: Who holds the NFC North tiebreaker in race for division title?

Admin December 5, 2024

When the Detroit Lions and Green Bay Packers face off on “Thursday Night Football” this week, there will be more on the line than just another tally mark in the win column.

Three of the four teams in the NFC North (look away, Chicago Bears fans) are in a tight race for the divisional crown. The Lions lead after Week 13, but the Minnesota Vikings are just one game behind them. The Packers are two games back from Detroit and one behind Minnesota.

In such a tight race, there’s a real chance that the division could come down to a tiebreaker, making each matchup against a divisional opponent much more important.

All three contenders have already played one game against each divisional opponent this year. Each team still has three more divisional games on its schedule – one against each of the other three teams in the NFC North.

With five weeks left to play, the top contenders’ three divisional matchups are crucial. A win in a game against an NFC North opponent doesn’t just help a team’s overall record; it’s also a major step toward winning a potential tiebreaker for the division title.

NFC North tiebreakers

Detroit Lions

With three divisional games left in the final five-week gauntlet, the Lions are in the best position to win the NFC North.

Detroit is the only team with a perfect record against NFC North opponents entering Week 14. They’re also in sole possession of first place in the division with their 11-1 record.

For the Lions, a win against the Packers on Thursday would clinch a playoff berth and the head-to-head tiebreaker over Green Bay. They’d remain in the driver’s seat to win the NFC North but still face big challenges with games against the Bills, Bears, 49ers and Vikings ahead to round out their remaining schedule.

A loss to the Packers would mean Detroit would have to wait until the results of some other games finished on Sunday to find out if it clinched a playoff spot in Week 14.

It would also mean a split of the head-to-head tiebreaker with Green Bay, though the Lions would also hold the advantage in the next tiebreaker – divisional record – with just one loss to an NFC North opponent. The Packers, meanwhile, have two losses: the first game against Detroit and their initial matchup with Minnesota.

Minnesota Vikings

The Vikings are in second place at 10-2 and could clinch a playoff berth this week. The simplest way for Minnesota to clinch a spot is with a win and losses from the Cardinals (to the Seahawks) and Rams (to the Bills).

For the Vikings to win their division, they’ve got to take care of business down the stretch. They have the advantage of an easier non-divisional schedule remaining than Detroit (vs. Falcons Week 14, at Seahawks Week 16), but divisional wins will be even more important.

Minnesota has already lost its first game to Detroit, so it doesn’t fully control its own destiny. The Vikings need to keep winning while the Lions drop some games to diminish their overall and/or divisional record.

If the Lions and Vikings have the same record going into their Week 18 matchup, the regular season finale will be a winner-take-all affair.

However, if the Vikings still trail the Lions by one game, they’ll need to win the final game of the season to split the head-to-head and have a better divisional record as a result to win the title.

If the Vikings trail the Lions by one game that week and could only secure a divisional record tie with a win, the Week 18 result wouldn’t affect the NFC North title race.

After head-to-head record and divisional record, the next tiebreaker is record against common opponents. Since Minnesota lost to the Rams in Week 8, a team that the Lions beat in Week 1, the Vikings would finish second even if they tied in overall and divisional record.

In summary, Minnesota needs Detroit to lose at least one more game for the Vikings to control their own destiny for the NFC North title.

Green Bay Packers

The Packers are at a disadvantage when it comes to the NFC North title. Not only do they have the worst overall record, but they’ve also already lost head-to-head matchups with the Lions and Vikings, which has also (obviously) hurt their divisional record.

Green Bay needs a lot to break their way to have a shot at the NFC North, but it isn’t impossible. A win over the Lions on Thursday would be a massive boost to their divisional title chance, as it would split their head-to-head matchups and ruin Detroit’s perfect divisional record.

From there, the Packers would need a win over the Vikings to split that head-to-head tiebreaker. If they accomplish both, they’ll also need a better divisional record than both teams to win the division.

Chaos outcomes

If all three teams have the same overall and divisional record, the next tiebreaker is record against a common opponent. The obvious common opponent for each team is the Bears, but all three teams may go undefeated or split those matchups.

If that happens, the Vikings would be eliminated from the title race because of their loss to the Rams, a team both the Lions and Packers have already defeated.

In that scenario, the only way the Packers could have overall and divisional records equal to the Lions (and Vikings) would be with a loss to either the Seahawks (Week 15) or the Saints (Week 16) and a Lions loss to the Bills (Week 15) or 49ers (Week 17).

The 49ers, whom Green Bay already defeated, would be a common opponent with the Lions. A Detroit loss to San Francisco would give the Packers the title.

If all of that happens, but the Lions beat the 49ers instead of the Bills, they’d have no difference in overall record, divisional record, common opponent record or conference record with the Packers. In that scenario, the fifth tiebreaker would trigger, and the NFC North title would come down to strength of victory.