NFL playoff picture Week 18 live updates: Latest on AFC and NFC seeds, scenarios, wild-card games

Admin January 5, 2025

The NFL playoff picture is about to put its final pieces into place.

With Week 18 already underway, only a couple of berths – one in each conference – still remain. Yet there are still several significant matters to be sorted out. With the Kansas City Chiefs having already claimed home-field advantage in the AFC, will it be the Detroit Lions or Minnesota Vikings who win the “Sunday Night Football” finale to claim the NFC’s No. 1 seed? Can the Tampa Bay Buccaneers put the finishing touches on their fourth consecutive NFC South crown? And can the Denver Broncos put an end to the NFL’s second-longest active playoff drought by claiming the final AFC wild-card spot, or can the Miami Dolphins or Cincinnati Bengals sneak into the field?

USA TODAY Sports will have live updates throughout the day on the latest outlook, so check back often for all the latest on the field for the AFC and NFC, as well as various scenarios and potential matchups for the wild-card round:

Bengals playoff scenarios: Two more wins – or losses – and in

The Bengals took care of business in their 19-17 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers on Saturday night. Now, they’ll be firmly rooting for a pair of outcomes in the late window to complete their improbable playoff push.

Cincinnati needs both the Broncos to stumble against the Chiefs – who will be resting Patrick Mahomes and many other starters – and for the Dolphins to trip up against the New York Jets. Denver would make the postseason with a win, while Miami would be next in line with a win and Broncos loss.

Pittsburgh is smarting after dropping its fourth consecutive game heading into the playoffs. But even after Saturday’s loss to the Bengals, there’s a chance for the Steelers to end up with a favorable playoff matchup.

With a Los Angeles Chargers win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Steelers will slink to the No. 6 seed and a rematch against the Ravens in Baltimore just three weeks after falling to the Ravens there, 34-17. But if the Chargers falter, Mike Tomlin and Co. would get a wild-card matchup against the Houston Texans.

Houston has lost its last two contests and is the only team currently in the AFC playoff field with a negative point differential on the season (-9).

NFC North scenarios: Lions, Vikings put everything on line for division title, home-field advantage

Despite limited overall drama in the playoff chase down the stretch, the NFL ended up with a high-stakes showcase for the spotlight of its final game of the regular season.

A Lions win would keep Detroit atop the conference and give Detroit the No. 1 seed for the first time in franchise history. The Vikings, meanwhile, also can claim home-field advantage – but only if they can beat Dan Campbell and Co. after dropping their last four in the series.

No matter the outcome, the drop to the first wild-card spot will be precipitous. And the potential opening matchup could provide reason for concern, as the Vikings fell to the Los Angeles Rams in Week 8 and the Lions slipped up against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers in Week 2.

NFC South scenarios: Any chance for a late surprise for Buccaneers, Falcons?

After squandering their division lead in Week 17 in a loss to the Washington Commanders, the Atlanta Falcons need a substantial break to end their six-year playoff drought.

The Buccaneers will seize the NFC South crown for the fourth consecutive year on Sunday simply by beating the New Orleans Saints. If they slip, however, the Falcons could capture the division title with an accompanying win over the Carolina Panthers, as they would prevail based on a head-to-head tiebreaker.

But the outlook for Atlanta is daunting. The Saints became the first NFL team to be shut out this season when they fell 34-0 to the Green Bay Packers two weeks ago, and Tampa Bay rolled to a 51-27 win in the first meeting between the two teams in Week 6. Quarterback Derek Carr has been ruled out, and running back Alvin Kamara is doubtful.

NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 18

Cincinnati clinches playoff berth with:

▶ Denver loss + Miami loss or tie

Denver clinches playoff berth with:

Win or tie

Miami clinches playoff berth with:

▶ Win + Denver loss

Detroit clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:

▶ Win or tie

Minnesota clinches NFC North and NFC’s No. 1 seed (first-round bye and home-field advantage) with:

▶ Win

Atlanta clinches NFC South with:

▶ Win + Tampa Bay loss

Tampa Bay clinches NFC South with:

Win or tie
Atlanta loss or tie

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (14-2), NFC North leaders: They couldn’t gain anything substantive with Monday night’s win at San Francisco aside from the resumption of the overall NFC lead. But the Lions can achieve everything they want from the regular season, including home-field advantage and the division title, by sweeping Minnesota at Ford Field in the final regular-season game of the league’s 2024 schedule Sunday night. Remaining schedule: vs. Vikings

y – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (13-3), NFC East champions: They locked down the division crown in Week 17 and the NFC’s No. 2 seed. For now – with nothing to gain Sunday and key starters like RB Saquon Barkley resting – they need to get QB Jalen Hurts (concussion) healthy while awaiting their wild-card round opponent. Remaining schedule: vs. Giants Playoff schedule: vs. Commanders or Packers

y – 3. Los Angeles Rams (10-6), NFC West champions: Like Philly, they wrapped up their division in Week 17 and just want to get through Week 18 intact before preparing for their playoff opener. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (9-7), NFC South leaders: Their Week 17 rout of the Panthers moved them back into first place, and Atlanta’s overtime loss at Washington kept Tampa Bay there. Win their Week 18 game, and the Bucs earn a fourth consecutive division crown – and they’d also elevate to the third seed if the Rams lose Sunday. A loss combined with a Falcons win sends the Buccaneers down the playoff plank. Remaining schedule: vs. Saints

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (14-2), wild card No. 1: They’re one Week 18 win from wrapping up the division, home-field advantage and a first-round bye in the NFC. Who saw this coming? Remaining schedule: at Lions

x – 6. Washington Commanders (11-5), wild card No. 2: A thrilling overtime victory in Week 17’s Sunday night game against Atlanta launched them into the field … and maybe won QB Jayden Daniels the Offensive Rookie of the Year award. Washington’s 8-3 record in NFC games is two better than Green Bay’s, so the Commanders will get the sixth seed if those teams wind up with the same record. Remaining schedule: at Cowboys

x – 7. Green Bay Packers (11-5), wild card No. 3: Getting swept by Detroit and (eventually) Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status even before Week 17. Should be notable to see how hard they and the Commanders work to engineer a matchup with the No. 3 seed next week rather than facing a trip to Philadelphia. Remaining schedule: vs. Bears

8. Seattle Seahawks (9-7), eliminated: Though they have a better record than the Falcons, whom the Seahawks beat earlier this season, Seattle has no path to the playoffs. Remaining schedule: at Rams

9. Atlanta Falcons (8-8), in the hunt: A gut-wrenching Week 17 loss to the Commanders means they need to beat Carolina in Week 18 and hope the Bucs also lose in order to win the NFC South. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers

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AFC playoff picture

yz – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (15-1), AFC West champions: By crushing Pittsburgh on Christmas, they secured home-field advantage and a first-round bye – and two-plus weeks off in actuality with many starters resting in what’s now a meaningless (for K.C., anyway) Week 18 contest at Denver. Remaining schedule: at Broncos Playoff schedule: BYE

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (13-3), AFC East champions: They’ve locked up the No. 2 seed, meaning the road to Super Bowl 59 could go through Western New York if the Chiefs lose their playoff opener. Remaining schedule: at Patriots Playoff schedule: vs. Broncos or Dolphins or Bengals

y – 3. Baltimore Ravens (12-5), AFC North champions: Catching fire? Probably an understatement as they blazed their way to the division crown and No. 3 seed Saturday afternoon by smoking Cleveland. Playoff schedule: vs. Chargers or Steelers

y – 4. Houston Texans (9-7), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year and are cemented them as the fourth seed … which will likely mean a tough wild-card matchup, albeit in Houston. Remaining schedule: at Titans Playoff schedule: vs. Steelers or Chargers

x – 5. Los Angeles Chargers (10-6), wild card No. 1: They moved up to the fifth seed courtesy of Pittsburgh’s loss and will secure the wild-card matchup with Houston by beating Las Vegas on Sunday. Lose, and the Bolts slide back to the sixth seed (due to their Week 3 loss at Pittsburgh) and get a trip to Baltimore. Remaining schedule: at Raiders Playoff schedule: at Texans or Ravens

x – 6. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-7), wild card No. 2: They’ve lost four in a row (by an average of 13 points) to close out the regular season, dropping them from the AFC North lead and No. 3 seed down to sixth. A loss by the Chargers on Sunday would push Pittsburgh back up to fifth in the conference. Playoff schedule: at Texans or Ravens

7. Denver Broncos (9-7), wild card No. 3: They’ve had win-and-in scenarios in their past two games and lost both times. Lose again, and they’re out. However, one more victory – or tie – will advance Denver to the playoffs for the first time since they won Super Bowl 50 with Peyton Manning and Von Miller nearly nine years ago. The Broncos’ Week 18 game against Kansas City means basically nothing to the Chiefs – and that should be a real advantage for Denver, which can do no better than the seventh seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs

8. Cincinnati Bengals (9-8), in the hunt: Still alive thanks to a five-game winning streak. Though they appear like the best team outside the postseason field, the Bengals still need help to get in – losses by both the Dolphins and Broncos on Sunday.

9. Miami Dolphins (8-8), in the hunt: After handling the Browns on the road in Week 17 – and without injured QB Tua Tagovailoa, who seems likely to sit again Sunday due to a hip issue – they qualify if they win in Week 18 and the Broncos lose. Miami’s record in AFC games (6-5) is better than both Denver’s and Cincinnati’s. Remaining schedule: at Jets

x – clinched playoff berth

y – clinched division

z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye

First-round order for 2025 NFL draft (projected)

(Team records in parentheses)

(Note: Spots 19 through 32 determined by playoff results)

Which NFL teams have already clinched playoff berths?

Here are the 12 teams that have clinched at least a playoff berth heading into Sunday

Kansas City Chiefs: AFC’s No. 1 seed, AFC West

Buffalo Bills: AFC’s No. 2 seed, AFC East

Baltimore Ravens: AFC’s No. 3 seed, AFC North

Houston Texans: AFC’s No. 4 seed, AFC South

Los Angeles Chargers: Wild-card berth

Pittsburgh Steelers: Wild-card berth

Philadelphia Eagles: NFC’s No. 2 seed, NFC East

Los Angeles Rams: NFC West

Detroit Lions: Playoff berth

Minnesota Vikings: Playoff berth

Washington Commanders: Wild-card berth

Green Bay Packers: Wild-card berth

Which NFL teams can still clinch playoff berths?

Denver Broncos: Eligible for AFC’s final wild-card berth and No. 7 seed

Miami Dolphins: Eligible for AFC’s final wild-card berth and No. 7 seed

Cincinnati Bengals: Eligible for AFC’s final wild-card berth and No. 7 seed

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: Eligible for NFC South title

Atlanta Falcons: Eligible for NFC South title

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