NFL playoff picture Week 17: Chiefs closing in on AFC's No. 1 seed, home-field advantage, bye

NFL playoff picture Week 17: Chiefs closing in on AFC’s No. 1 seed, home-field advantage, bye

Admin December 25, 2024

Every week for the duration of the 2024 NFL regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the league’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting after Sunday afternoon’s late games and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when Christmas falls on a Wednesday, we’ll be watching then, too.)

What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 5.

Here’s where things stand with Week 17 of the 2024 season underway:

NFC playoff picture

x – 1. Detroit Lions (13-2), NFC North leaders: Last week, they were in a three-way tie atop the conference and deadlocked for the division lead with Minnesota. But Philadelphia’s Week 16 defeat makes it increasingly likely the Lions and Vikings will be playing for all the important regular-season marbles in Week 18. Winning out gives the Lions everything they want, including home-field advantage. So would a win at San Francisco on Monday combined with a Minnesota loss. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Vikings

x – 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3), NFC East leaders: They’re coming off a rough Sunday. They lost their 10-game winning streak, an opportunity to wrap up the division and fell a game behind Detroit and Minnesota in the race for home-field advantage. But they’re still just one win or Commanders loss from locking up the division and at least the No. 2 seed. Remaining schedule: vs. Cowboys, vs. Giants

3. Los Angeles Rams (9-6), NFC West leaders: Beat Seattle in Week 18, and the division is theirs. Or a win over Arizona and some help would also get it done Saturday. Remaining schedule: vs. Cardinals, vs. Seahawks

4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7), NFC South leaders: Rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. won his starting debut against the lowly Giants. But the real payoff came last Sunday night, when the Bucs – they were swept earlier in the season by Atlanta – lost at Dallas. The Falcons can win the division in Week 17 with another victory and another Tampa Bay loss. Remaining schedule: at Commanders, vs. Panthers

x – 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2), wild card No. 1: Like Detroit, they control their very own potentially high-yield fate – win out, and the NFC North and No. 1 seed are Minnesota’s. Remaining schedule: vs. Packers, at Lions

x – 6. Green Bay Packers (11-4), wild card No. 2: Getting swept by Detroit and losing once already to Minnesota relegated the Pack to wild-card status … though Monday’s whitewash of the Saints was the latest reminder that this might actually be the last NFC North team you want to see in January. But given Packers are guaranteed to open the playoffs on the road, it will be interesting to see how much they play their key starters over the next two weeks given the limited upside to doing so. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, vs. Bears

7. Washington Commanders (10-5), wild card No. 3: Despite beating the Eagles, they didn’t quite clinch a postseason berth – but did remain alive in the NFC East while eliminating both the Dallas Cowboys and San Francisco 49ers from the playoff picture. A win in Week 17 puts Washington into the dance. A loss could be highly problematic in the tiebreaker space as it would open an alternate avenue for the Bucs, who beat Washington in Week 1. Remaining schedule: vs. Falcons, at Cowboys

8. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (8-7), in the hunt: Sunday night, they couldn’t handle a Dallas team eliminated from playoff contention earlier in the day. The Bucs could see their aspirations to keep the NFC South throne die this week. Remaining schedule: vs. Panthers, vs. Saints

9. Seattle Seahawks (8-7), in the hunt: After Sunday’s loss to Minnesota, they’re going to need help to win the NFC West. Neither the Seahawks nor Rams have a pathway to a wild-card berth. Remaining schedule: at Bears, at Rams

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AFC playoff picture

y – 1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1), AFC West champions: They’ll get the No. 1 seed – what a Christmas present – with one more win or Buffalo loss. Remaining schedule: at Steelers, at Broncos

y – 2. Buffalo Bills (12-3), AFC East champions: They barely beat lightly regarded New England on Sunday, but it’s currently enough to keep the Bills in the chase for home-field advantage – which will require two more wins plus two Chiefs defeats. Remaining schedule: vs. Jets, at Patriots

x – 3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5), AFC North leaders: Rough Saturday. First, They fell out of the running for the No. 1 seed by virtue of Kansas City’s win over Houston. Then, Pittsburgh fumbled an opportunity to clinch the division. Looks like they’re in a dogfight the rest of the way with Baltimore, which appears to have the more favorable schedule to close the regular season. The Steelers retain first place in the division – for now – by virtue of a one-game lead over the Ravens in AFC games, i.e., not much at all. Remaining schedule: vs. Chiefs, vs. Bengals

y – 4. Houston Texans (9-6), AFC South champions: They rule a weak division for the second straight year but are just about locked in as the fourth seed … which would mean a tough wild-card matchup, very likely against an AFC North team. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Titans

x – 5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5), wild card No. 1: Catching fire? They clinched their postseason spot Saturday, averted a Pittsburgh AFC North crown, are now very much alive themselves to win the division … and might have recaptured the Super Bowl form they showed earlier in the season. Remaining schedule: at Texans, vs. Browns

6. Los Angeles Chargers (9-6), wild card No. 2: By sweeping the Broncos for the first time in 14 years, they prevented Denver from clinching in Week 16 while leapfrogging their division rivals and picking up the season tiebreaker (by virtue of the sweep). One more win locks Bolts into the field. Remaining schedule: at Patriots, at Raiders

7. Denver Broncos (9-6), wild card No. 3: They had a win-and-in scenario last week to stamp their first postseason trip since winning Super Bowl 50 nine years ago. Still, one more victory will advance Denver to the playoffs. But major trouble ahead if they lose to Cincinnati in Week 17. Remaining schedule: at Bengals, vs. Chiefs

8. Indianapolis Colts (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Their record in AFC games (6-5) is better than Miami’s (5-5) and Cincinnati’s (4-6). Remaining schedule: at Giants, vs. Jaguars

9. Miami Dolphins (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Browns, at Jets

10. Cincinnati Bengals (7-8), in the hunt: Technically alive after winning on Sunday. Though they appear like the best team outside the field, they’ll need the most help to get in, including losses by the Colts and Dolphins. Remaining schedule: vs. Broncos, at Steelers