The 2024 NFL season has thrown down the gauntlet, making it difficult to make the right picks and predictions against the spread. Favorites are letting down in good spots, while bad teams are coming out of their pitiful play to pull off big, straight-up upsets.

The only thing to do is remain fearless with the forecast of professional pigskin prognostications.

As the sample size grows for each team, the process should get easier. It’s time to keep trusting it and dive into the SU and ATS fun for Week 4, another full slate of 16 tricky games.

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NFL picks against the spread for Week 4

• Game of Midweek: Cowboys (-4.5, 44 o/u) at Giants

Thursday 8:15 p.m. ET, Amazon Prime Video

The Cowboys are struggling to stop the run big time, and that’s how the Giants can stay in it early and avoid bad pressure situations for Daniel Jones while he duels Dak Prescott. Look for Devin Singletary and Malik Nabers to have big offensive impacts, but in the end, Prescott and CeeDee Lamb will be the hottest offensive combination on TNF and keep desperate Dallas from dipping to 1-3.

Pick: Cowboys win 23-20 but fail to cover the spread.

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• Game of the Week: Bills at Ravens (-2.5, 45.5 o/u)

Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET, NBC

The Bills have been having fun running the ball to support Josh Allen in their diverse and balanced offense. The Ravens can be relentless running at a high level with Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry, and that’s how to attack Buffalo’s defense. Allen will run into some turnover trouble against Baltimore’s back-end looks after the Ravens apply some good inside pressure on him.

Pick: Ravens win 23-20 and cover the spread.

• Lock of the Week: Jets (-7, 38.5 o/u) over Broncos

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Bo Nix will keep starting over former Jets first-rounder Zach Wilson. While Wilson sits, this becomes a juicy revenge game of Jets offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett, who went (almost) one-and-one as the Broncos coach before being ultimately replaced by Sean Payton. Aaron Rodgers got rolling last week, and Denver won’t be able to stop New York’s 1-2 punch in the running game of Breece Hall and Braelon Allen. Then Robert Saleh’s defense can tee off on Nix and force big takeaways, much to the delight of Hackett.

Pick: Jets win 27-10 and cover the spread.

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• Upset of the Week: Commanders (+5, 48.5 o/u) over Cardinals

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

Here’s another coaching revenge game, as Commanders offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury will get to return to Arizona. He’ll help Dan Quinn find schematic ways to stop his former prized quarterback, Kyler Murray, while also letting his newer model of running QB, Jayden Daniels. throw a little more downfield again in a favorable spot. Washington feels at home in Arizona, overcoming a desert trap.

Pick: Commanders win 27-24.

• Saints at Falcons (-1.5, 43.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Saints will have a little trouble running the ball on the Falcons front, setting up Derek Carr to face some pressure and see some uncomfortable coverage in the middle of the field. Meanwhile, Kirk Cousins will keep building on the past two games with his passing weapons, putting himself in better position to make big plays downfield.

Pick: Falcons win 27-20 and cover the spread.

• Bengals (-5.5, 47.5 o/u) at Panthers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Here’s yet another revenge game, as Andy Dalton gets to duel Joe Burrow and his original team, the Bengals. The Red Rifle was on target with his aim all over the field in Las Vegas and will be aggressive again trying to keep up with Burrow. Unfortunately, the Bengals’ defense has a few more guys who can get to him, while Burrow will have time to pick apart the Panthers with his top wide receivers.

Pick: Bengals win 30-20 and cover the spread.

MORE: Week 4 NFL Power Rankings | Week 4 NFL picks

• Rams at Bears (-2.5, 41 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

Matthew Stafford faces a former NFC North foe in maybe his last-ever start in Chicago. Look for the Rams to lean on a run-heavy game plan with limited receivers against a brutal pass defense on the road. Kyren Williams can keep the ball moving for L.A., but the other Williams, Caleb, will build on last week’s multiple-TD momentum to rip apart a struggling pass defense at home.

Pick: Bears win 24-20 and cover the spread.

• Vikings at Packers (-2.5, 43.5 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

The Vikings are unsure about Sam Darnold and his knee injury, while the Packers are more optimistic about Jordan Love playing and returning. Matt LaFleur is on fire with his offensive play-calling, run or pass, while the same can be said about Brian Flores’ work with Minnesota’s defense. Something needs to give a little, and we give the edge to the Lambeau hosts.

Pick: Packers win 22-17 and cover the spread.

• Jaguars at Texans (-4.5, 45 o/u)

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

Trevor Lawrence will work to get the Jaguars more competitive opposite C.J. Stroud, but beyond their running game, they have some issues with identity and injuries. Stroud should finally see a secondary against which he can involve all three top wide receivers to make up for concerns in the running game. Lawrence digs deep to keep his team in it, but Stroud has too much around him. 

Pick: Texans win 24-20 but fail to cover the spread.

• Steelers (-1.5, 40 o/u) at Colts

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, CBS

This is an atrocious matchup for the Colts. They cannot stop the power run or running QBs, which plays right into the hands of Najee Harris and Justin Fields. They also are giving up some big pass plays outside — not good vs. George Pickens. Anthony Richardson is struggling passing while having limited rushing impact on the other side. T.J. Watt and the Steelers’ defense won’t allow him to break out of his sophomore slump.

Pick: Steelers win 23-13 and cover the spread.

• Eagles (-2.5, 45 o/u) at Buccaneers

Sunday 1 p.m. ET, Fox

The Eagles may be down DeVonta Smith along with A.J. Brown for Jalen Hurts, who is headed to leaning a lot more on Saquon Barkley and Dallas Goedert. Hurts and Philadelphia lost at Tampa Bay in two of the past three playoffs, but they will be ready here after getting the defense on track for Vic Fangio last week. Baker Mayfield will do his best to stay with Hurts, thanks to his two-wideout edge, but the Buccaneers’ rushing attack can’t get it done here.

Pick: Eagles win 24-20 and cover the spread.

• Patriots at 49ers (-10.5, 40 o/u)

Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET, Fox

The 49ers need to smash someone after a 1-2 start. The Patriots will be that team and provide a needed offensive and defensive break for the injury-riddled Niners. Brock Purdy loves passing at home and will build on his awesome game in Los Angeles last week. The Patriots will have limited success moving the ball on the Niners with Jacoby Brissett remaining overwhelmed.

Pick: 49ers win 24-10 and cover the spread.

• Chiefs (-7, 39.5 o/u) at Chargers

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

This should be a marquee game with Patrick Mahomes vs. Justin Herbert as the undercard to Andy Reid vs. Jim Harbaugh. However, Herbert aggravated his foot injury during the loss to Pittsburgh, and the Chargers could be stuck with a run-heavy game plan and a backup QB. Harbaugh, however, will find a way to grind with his team, as the Chargers’ defense does its best to thwart Mahomes in the red zone. It’s likely, however, that the Chargers won’t have enough pop to win late.

Pick: Chiefs win 23-17 but fail to cover the spread.

• Browns at Raiders (-1, 37.5 o/u)

Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET, CBS

The Raiders will be called upon to show up for Antonio Pierce after sleepwalking through the bad loss to the Panthers in their home opener in Week 3. Gardner Minshew will need to let it loose more to a good receiving corps. Maxx Crosby will challenge the defense to get after Deshaun Watson. Pierce’s motivation works, while Watson goes through more of the motions on the road.

Pick: Raiders win 20-17 and cover the spread.

• Titans at Dolphins (pick ’em, 37 o/u)

Monday 7:30 p.m. ET, ESPN

The Dolphins would be smart to play Tyler Huntley at QB and attack the Titans with a heavy rushing attack. Huntley can also unlock Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle more at home. On the flip side, the Titans’ post-Derrick Henry running game helps Miami, which will be positioned to flex its pass defense in prime time vs. Will Levis.

Pick: Dolphins win 24-17 and cover the spread.

• Seahawks at Lions (-4.5, 47 o/u)

Monday 8:15 p.m. ET, ABC

The Seahawks have taken care of the Broncos, Patriots, and shorthanded Dolphins, with two of the games being at home. This is a tough Monday night road trip, despite the fact they have recent experience winning in Detroit with Geno Smith. The Lions found their pounding running game again last week to alleviate Jared Goff. The Seahawks’ offense will be cooled just enough vs. the best defense it has seen this season.

Pick: Lions win 31-27 but fail to cover the spread.

Stats of the Week

• Week 3 record straight up: 6-8
• Week 3 record against the spread: 6-8
• Season-to-date straight up: 27-19
• Season-to-date against the spread: 17-15