AlixPartners projects a 2% to 5% increase in sales over last year.

A new forecast predicts most growth this holiday season as customers hunt for deals and consider value brands — and cut back on gifts for themselves.

Holiday sales are expected to rise 2% to 5% this year over last, lower than last year’s 6% growth over 2022, according to the Holiday Outlook Survey from consulting firm AlixPartners. Some 42% of respondents intend to purchase most gifts on sale, an uptick from the 38% who were looking to that strategy in 2023. Spending declines are planned for nearly all product and services categories except for food and beverage at home.  

A quarter (26%) of consumers plan on spending less this holiday season than last year, and those spending reductions are significantly more prominent with lower-income households. Forty-three percent of households with annual incomes under $45,000 said they plan to spend less than last year, according to survey responses.

Roughly one-third of $45,000-$100,000 households will pullback compared to 2023. That number declines to 22% for $100,000-plus households.