Mike McCarthy’s stock is rising. Could the coach dump Cowboys to join another NFL team?

Mike McCarthy’s stock is rising. Could the coach dump Cowboys to join another NFL team?

December 26, 2024

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If body language is to be believed, Jerry Jones had some serious love for Mike McCarthy in the aftermath of the prime-time upset delivered by the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night. Rather than merely shake his hand or give him a pat on the back following the victory against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Jones embraced McCarthy in the festive locker room with a demonstrative bear hug that spoke volumes.

The props for McCarthy are well-deserved. The Cowboys found out before kickoff that they were officially eliminated from the NFL playoff picture, yet they played with so much passion against a team needing a win to hang onto first place in the NFC South. And with Dak Prescott’s season ended in early November by a torn hamstring, no one is accusing Dallas of laying down like dogs. They’ve won four of five games, forcing a recalibration of McCarthy’s “lame duck” status as he coaches on the final year of a five-year contract. His approval rating, so to speak, is trending.

As for Jones, given the repeated sour-faced TV glimpses we’ve seen of the team owner in his private suite at AT&T Stadium during one embarrassing home loss after another over the past year – remember how the Detroit Lions broke out the bag of trick plays in commemorating Jerry’s birthday with a blowout, or the debacle in the NFC wild-card tilt in January when the Green Bay Packers scored touchdowns on five consecutive possessions to mark arguably the worst playoff loss in Cowboys history – it was about time he could project a vastly different postgame image. It’s been a while.

And what a contrast to all the hot-seat messages that have dogged the embattled coach for many months. It wasn’t too long ago when Jones, during his popular weekly radio hit, questioned the design of some of McCarthy’s schemes. Not a week goes by without someone probing Jones about McCarthy’s job security. The last time I asked about his coach’s status, in late March, Jones had no qualms about turning up the pressure on McCarthy, 61, by not giving him an extension.

As Jones put it to USA TODAY Sports back then, “Most of America gets up and they don’t have anything guaranteed down the road.”

Although Jones wouldn’t address McCarthy’s future on Sunday night, and his son Stephen, the team’s chief operating officer, wouldn’t declare anything during his radio hit on Monday, the coach has surely made a point in keeping the team competitive. Despite losing Prescott and suffering other key injury hits, the Cowboys (7-8) still have a shot at a winning season. McCarthy also has endorsements from Prescott and star linebacker Micah Parsons.

Of course, the Cowboys, who brought McCarthy aboard in 2020 with the idea that he could take them further than predecessor Jason Garrett could, haven’t advanced to the NFC title game in 29 years now. But perhaps they’d stand a better chance of ending the drought with continuity. If they part with McCarthy, it would be starting over yet again with an eighth coach in 32 years since the split with Jimmy Johnson (two Super Bowl wins).

“All I can say is what a good job, how good of a job he’s doing,” Jerry Jones told reporters on Sunday night. “Don’t have thoughts that I would share as to anything about what we do…after we’re through playing this year.”

After last season, Jones didn’t reveal that McCarthy would return – albeit without an extension – until he underwent three days of hard contemplation. In mid-January, similar drama could play out.

Yet there will be a significant twist: McCarthy might opt to bolt and become a coaching free agent.

It would one thing for Jones to determine that he wouldn’t do any better than McCarthy by bringing in a new unproven coach.

But what if McCarthy, with his contract up, decides that he’s had enough of the intense scrutiny that comes with coaching arguably the most high-profile team in the NFL?

With his experience, a resume that includes a Super Bowl victory with the Packers and three straight 12-win campaigns with the Cowboys, and a track record for bringing out the best in quarterbacks, McCarthy could be a hot item on the open market.

Sure, Bill Belichick was supposed to be a hot candidate in the last cycle, and only one of the seven teams besides the New England Patriots with an opening, the Atlanta Falcons, bothered to even interview a coach with six Super Bowl victories on his resume (eight, if including his coordinator duty). But McCarthy might be different, given his expertise as an offensive strategist and without needing the GM-type clout that Belichick commanded.

He’s also made a key move that shows how much he means business in preparing for that possibility. McCarthy hired a new agent in Don Yee, who last year brokered Jim Harbaugh’s return to the NFL with the Los Angeles Chargers and in 2023 facilitated Sean Payton’s return from a one-year layoff to a moonshot catch with the Denver Broncos. Yee also has represented Tom Brady for many years and incidentally was the person that Las Vegas Raiders owner Mark Davis said he used to put on TB12’s post-retirement radar the possibility to first get involved in the ownership ranks of his franchise.

To this point, the Cowboys haven’t engaged with Yee beyond a brief encounter with the Los Angeles-based agent and Stephen Jones before the team broke the California portion of its training camp. In other words, there were no substantial talks about a McCarthy extension.

While Jerry Jones still holds so many of the cards relative to McCarthy’s future with the Cowboys, the team owner doesn’t hold all of the cards.

In a few weeks, there could be competition for a rare coaching free agent. The Chicago Bears, building around No. 1 overall pick Caleb Williams, would be an interesting team to watch. The New Orleans Saints, where McCarthy landed his first coordinator job in 2000, might also be intriguing. The New York Jets will go back to the drawing board, with or without McCarthy’s former quarterback, Aaron Rodgers.

And by mid-January, history suggests there will be a few more head coach openings in a league that typically averages at least six per hiring cycle.

Ben Johnson, the Detroit Lions offensive coordinator, will be a hot name again. And you’d think that Johnson’s counterpart running Detroit’s defense, Aaron Glenn, will attract interest. Yet McCarthy, if he’s a free agent, might vault to the top of a lot of lists.

Dallas? Something that McCarthy said last spring about his status, during the NFL meetings, resonates. He said he was less concerned about his future than that of his staff of assistant coaches, also on the final year of their contracts. And their families. If McCarthy has a choice of staying put, perhaps that’s a factor, too, in addition to his connection with Prescott and a locker room that he seemingly has built a bond with.

And maybe, too, he’s gotten a bit used to the circus that comes with the Cowboys. Although McCarthy undoubtedly realizes the resources that Jones can tap while running the NFL’s most valuable franchise (the Cowboys recently became the first to top $10 billion, according to Forbes), it’s still rather puzzling that despite the team owner trumpeting that he was “all in” for chasing a championship this season, the Cowboys were so passive last offseason.

The massive, top-of-market deals for CeeDee Lamb and Prescott didn’t get completed until the latter part of training camp and start of the regular season, respectively. And the Cowboys were largely a non-factor in free agency, both in bringing in new players and in retaining talent.

It’s no wonder that one of the narratives that has hung over the team this season involves the conspiracy theory that the Cowboys were set up McCarthy to fail in his final season.

Hey, it’s always something with the Cowboys.

And maybe it’s not over yet for McCarthy — at least not without another round of Dallas drama.

Follow USA TODAY Sports’ Jarrett Bell on X @JarrettBell.