Lions playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Detroit to clinch NFC No. 1 seed

Admin December 30, 2024

The Detroit Lions have been perched atop the NFC for most of the 2024 NFL season. However, one of their top challengers has finally caught up to them.

The Minnesota Vikings have been within striking distance of Detroit since the Lions beat them in Week 7 but after defeating the Green Bay Packers 27-25 in Week 17, the Vikings have moved up in the standings, even if it may only be temporary.

That will set up a critical Week 18 matchup between the divisional rivals to determine the winner of the NFC North and the conference’s No. 1 seed.

How can the Lions clinch the No. 1 seed? They won’t be able to do so in their “Monday Night Football” matchup with the San Francisco 49ers, but they should still be plenty motivated to win that contest. Here’s why.

Lions playoff scenarios

The Lions have already clinched a playoff berth and will be either the No. 1 seed in the NFC or the No. 5 seed. It all depends on whether they can stave off competition from the Vikings in the race for the NFC North.

Detroit will be the NFC’s No. 1 seed if either of the following scenarios occurs:

The Lions beat the Vikings in Week 18;
The Lions beat the 49ers in Week 17 and tie the Vikings in Week 18.

Detroit will be the NFC’s No. 5 seed in either of the scenarios below:

The Lions lose to the Vikings in Week 18;
The Lions lose to the 49ers in Week 17 and tie the Vikings in Week 18;
The Lions tie against the 49ers in Week 17 and tie the Vikings in Week 18.

As such, the Lions’ Week 18 game against the Vikings will function as a winner-take-all matchup for the NFC’s top seed. Even so, Detroit will be focused on its Week 17 game against San Francisco, as a loss to the 49ers could slightly narrow the Lions’ path to the No. 1 seed.

Lions vs. Vikings tiebreakers, explained

There are only two ways for the Lions and Vikings to end up tied in the standings at season’s end. They are as follows:

Lions lose to 49ers in Week 17 AND beat Vikings in Week 18;
Lions beat 49ers in Week 17 AND tie Vikings in Week 18.

The Lions would have the tiebreaker advantage should either situation unfold. Detroit beat Minnesota 31-29 in Week 7 when Jahmyr Gibbs racked up 160 total yards and a touchdown on 19 touches, so if the Lions win or tie the Vikings in Week 18, they will have a superior head-to-head record.

Had the Packers defeated the Vikings in Week 17, the tiebreaker scenarios could have been more complex. Detroit and Minnesota could have ended up tied in the standings with a Vikings win. That would have forced the NFL to go further down the tiebreaker list, as both teams would have identical head-to-head, division and conference records.

However, the Vikings handled the Packers in a 27-25 victory to render that possibility null and void. As a result, the NFL won’t have to go beyond the first tiebreaker (head-to-head results) to find the winner of the NFC North – if tiebreakers have to be used.

Lions potential playoff opponents

If the Lions are the NFC’s No. 1 seed, they will get a much-needed first-round bye after which they would play the lowest-remaining seed in the NFC bracket.

If Detroit ends up as the No. 5 seed, it will go on the road to face one of the following three teams:

The Buccaneers are currently projected to be the NFC’s No. 4 seed, and they need only to win or tie against the New Orleans Saints in Week 18 to clinch a playoff berth. If the Rams win or tie against the Seattle Seahawks, that would lock Tampa Bay into the No. 4 seed.

If the Rams lose to the Seahawks and the Buccaneers beat the Saints, Tampa Bay would become the No. 3 seed, and Sean McVay’s Los Angeles squad would become the No. 4 seed.

The Falcons can only be the No. 4 seed if they claw their way into the playoffs. They will only get in with a win over the Carolina Panthers and a Buccaneers loss.

The Lions beat the Rams 26-20 in Week 1, lost to the Buccaneers 20-16 in Week 2 and didn’t play the Falcons during the regular season.