Admin November 28, 2024
NFL Week 13 picks: Colts, Broncos, and Seahawks
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for NFL Week 13 games, including Thursday’s Thanksgiving slate.
Lorenzo’s Locks
The Miami Dolphins have been one of the NFL’s hottest teams in the month of November. The Green Bay Packers will be looking to cool them down in a battle of playoff hopefuls on Thanksgiving night.
The Packers (8-3) will be hosting the Dolphins (5-6) at Lambeau Field in a matchup that should favor Green Bay. Temperatures in the NFL’s smallest city are expected to be below-freezing, and Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has a career record of 0-7 in games where the temperature dips below 45 degrees.
While Miami’s offense could be handicapped if Tagovailoa struggles, its defense has played well during its three-game winning streak. The Dolphins are surrendering just 16.3 points per game over the last few weeks, but the Packers’ well-balanced offense will provide them with their most difficult test since their Week 9 matchup against the Buffalo Bills.
Jordan Love has been turnover-prone during the 2024 NFL season, but he has made plenty of explosive plays in the passing game. Meanwhile, running back Josh Jacobs enters Week 13 with the third-most rushing yards in the NFL, behind only MVP hopefuls Saquon Barkley and Derrick Henry. Jacobs ran well in Week 12 against the San Francisco 49ers and if he can wear down the Dolphins in cold conditions on a short week, he could end up having a second consecutive 100-yard day.
Will Tagovailoa finally snap his cold-game cold streak, or will the Packers improve to an impressive 5-0 against the AFC this season? USA TODAY Sports will provide the latest updates, highlights and results from the Thanksgiving night clash below.
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- Start time: 8:20 p.m. ET (5:20 PT)
- Location: Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin
The NFL’s Thursday night games typically begin at 8:15 p.m. ET. However, the Thanksgiving game will start five minutes later at 8:20 p.m. ET, the normal start time for NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” programming.
Thursday night games typically belong to Amazon Prime, but NBC still owns the right to the Thanksgiving night game. As such, the game will be broadcast with NBC’s “Sunday Night Football” branding despite taking place on Thursday night.
Mike Tirico (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (color commentary) and Melissa Stark (sideline reporter) typically handle the broadcast duties for NBC’s “SNF” broadcast. It isn’t clear whether any of the trio will have Thanksgiving off.
NBC will host a pregame show for the event as part of its “Football Night In America” branding. The program will begin at 7 p.m. ET and feature insight from a panel of analysts, including Maria Taylor, Jason Garrett, Chris Simms, Mike Florio, Devin McCourty, Tony Dungy, and more.
For cord cutters looking for a live stream for the matchup, you can turn to Fubo TV. Fubo TV carries NBC, as well as CBS, FOX, NFL Network and the ESPN family of networks, meaning you can catch NFL action through the remainder of the season.
Peacock, the proprietary streaming service of NBC, will also carry the game.
Here’s how the USA TODAY Sports staff feels the Packers vs. Dolphins Thanksgiving matchup will cook:
- Lorenzo Reyes: Packers 23, Dolphins 19
- Tyler Dragon: Packers 26, Dolphins 24
- Richard Morin: Packers 24, Dolphins 21
- Jordan Mendoza: Packers 23, Dolphins 21
The Packers are favorites to defeat the Dolphins, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
- Spread: Packers (-3.5)
- Moneyline: Packers (-185); Dolphins (+150)
- Over/under: 47
The Packers vs. Dolphins game is being played at Lambeau Field in Green Bay, Wisconsin. It marks just the second time that the Packers have hosted a Thanksgiving game since 1927. They last hosted a Thanksgiving game in 2015, when they lost 17-13 to the Chicago Bears.
➤ Ranking NFL’s stadiums from 1 to 30: How does Lambeau Field rate?
The Packers vs. Dolphins game at legendary Lambeau Field is expected to be played in cold-weather conditions on Thursday night. Temperatures will drop below freezing by game time and could go as low as 19 degrees during the evening.
Below are the full details of Thursday’s forecast for Green Bay:
- High temperature: 32 degrees
- Low temperature: 20 degrees
- Chance of precipitation: 36%
- Wind: 10-20 mph
Tua Tagovailoa has played in seven games with a listed temperature of 45 degrees or lower, according to data from Pro Football Reference.
Tagovailoa has an 0-7 record in those contests. His other stats aren’t much better, as can be seen below.
- Completion rate: 135-of-243 (55.6%)
- Passing yards: 1,687
- Passing TDs: 8
- INTs: 10
- Yards/attempt: 6.9
- Passer rating: 71.13
Tagovailoa’s average of 241 passing yards per game in those cold-weather contests is respectable, but he has struggled to consistently lead his team to points. The Dolphins are averaging 16.4 points per game in those cold-weather games while allowing 32.4 points per game.
- LB Anthony Walker Jr.
- QB Tyler Huntley (emergency third QB)
- CB Ethan Bonner
- CB Kendall Fuller
- TE Jack Stoll
- WR Dee Eskridge
- CB Jaire Alexander
- LB Edgerrin Cooper
- OL Jacob Monk
- WR Romeo Doubs
The Packers are appearing on Thanksgiving for the 38th time in 2024. That ties them with the Chicago Bears for the third-most appearances on the holiday in NFL history and the most among teams that aren’t an every-year part of the Thanksgiving tradition.
Green Bay has a record of just 15-20-2 on the holiday. Below is a look at their seven most recent Thanksgiving appearances, which date back to 2001.
- Nov. 23, 2023: Packers 29, Lions 22
- Nov. 26, 2015: Bears 17, Packers 13
- Nov. 28, 2013: Lions 40, Packers 10
- Nov. 24, 2011: Packers 27, Lions 15
- Nov. 22, 2007: Packers 37, Lions 26
- Nov. 27, 2003: Lions 22, Packers 14
- Nov. 22, 2001: Packers 29, Lions 27
The Dolphins have played on Thanksgiving seven times in their franchise’s history. They have a 5-2 record in those games, with their most notable victory coming in a 16-14 victory over the Cowboys in the infamous 1993 game in which Leon Lett tried to recover a blocked field goal only for the Dolphins to recover the ball.
Below is a full look at Miami’s Thanksgiving results:
- Nov. 22, 1973: Dolphins 14, Cowboys 7
- Nov. 24, 1977: Dolphins 55, St. Louis Cardinals 14
- Nov. 25, 1993: Dolphins 16, Cowboys 14
- Nov. 25, 1999: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 0
- Nov. 27, 2003: Dolphins 40, Cowboys 21
- Nov. 23, 2006: Dolphins 27, Lions 10
- Nov. 24, 2011: Cowboys 20, Dolphins 19
The NFL on Thanksgiving Day has featured some memorable moments, from Clint Longley leading a Cowboys comeback in 1974 and a national TV showcase for the incomparable Barry Sanders to the infamous Butt Fumble in 2012 and Leon Lett’s blunder in 1993.
NFL games on Thanksgiving have been a tradition since the league’s inception in 1920 (there were six games that first season!). A third prime-time game was added in 2006, and includes teams other than the Lions and Cowboys, who each play their traditional Thanksgiving home games. — Jim Reineking
- Detroit Lions (11-1)
- Minnesota Vikings (9-2)
- Green Bay Packers (8-3)
- Chicago Bears (4-8)
- Buffalo Bills (9-2)
- Miami Dolphins (5-6)
- New York Jets (3-8)
- New England Patriots (3-9)
Jordan Love signed a four-year contract extension worth up to $220 million with the Packers during the 2024 NFL offseason. That gives him an average annual value (AAV) of $55 million, tied with Joe Burrow and Trevor Lawrence for the second-highest in the NFL behind Dak Prescott ($60 million).
Love’s contract contains $160.3 million in guarantees, a significant investment by the Packers after his one year as a starter.
Tua Tagovailoa was given a lucrative contract during the 2024 NFL offseason as well. He got a four-year deal worth up to $212.4 million. His AAV of $53.1 million is the fifth-highest in the NFL, but he earned the ninth-most guaranteed money for a quarterback as part of his deal ($167.17 million).
Love and Tagovailoa have fairly similar contracts, all things considered, so it will be interesting to see the two face off against one another.
The New England Patriots and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied for the most Super Bowl wins with six.
Pittsburgh and Dallas have the unique distinction of playing each other more than any other team combination in Super Bowl history with three matchups.
The Packers own four Super Bowl wins, most recently during the 2010 season, when the defeated the Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. The Dolphins have won two Super Bowls, most recently during the 1973 season when they defeated the Minnesota Vikings in Super Bowl VIII. The Dolphins’ last Super Bowl appearance was during the 1984 season, when they were defeated by the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl XIX.
The Steelers’ last Super Bowl triumph came during the 2008 season, when they defeated the Arizona Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII. The Browns are among four NFL teams that have never appeared in a Super Bowl.
NFL franchises with most Super Bowl wins:
➤ Super Bowl winners: All-time scores, results for NFL title game
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