Dolphins playoff picture: Scenarios, chances for Miami to make postseason

Admin December 29, 2024

The Miami Dolphins weren’t considered serious playoff contenders after starting the season with a 2-6 record.

However, the Dolphins have gone 5-2 in their last seven games to emerge as a potential wild-card threat in the AFC. Their path to the postseason isn’t easy, but if Mike McDaniel’s squad can keep winning, it might have a chance to go to the playoffs for a third consecutive year.

Miami isn’t in control of its own destiny. To make the 2025 NFL playoffs, it must win out and receive help from several teams.

How can the Dolphins make the playoffs? Here’s a look at their postseason chances as the final weeks of the 2024 NFL season unfold.

Dolphins playoff chances

The Dolphins have a 16% chance to make the playoffs, according to The Athletic’s playoff prediction model. That ranks as the second-lowest chance among the four AFC teams vying for the conference’s No. 7 seed.

Dolphins playoff odds

The Athletic’s model is much more optimistic about the Dolphins’ chances than DraftKings Sportsbook. DraftKings lists Miami with +1600 odds to make the postseason. That gives the Dolphins an implied probability of just 5.88% to qualify for the playoffs.

The Dolphins need three things to happen to make the playoffs. They are as follows:

Miami also needed the Indianapolis Colts to lose or tie one of their final two games to make the postseason. The Colts lost to the New York Giants in Week 17, checking that goal off Miami’s list and widening the Dolphins’ path to a postseason appearance.

Dolphins remaining schedule

The Dolphins don’t have an overly difficult finish to the 2024 NFL season. They are playing against the Cleveland Browns and New York Jets in the final two weeks of the season. That gives Miami the sixth-easiest schedule league-wide entering play on Sunday, Dec. 29.

However, both of Miami’s games are on the road in outdoor stadiums. That could hurt the team’s chances of winning if the weather is inclement.

The team is also expected to be without Tua Tagovailoa in Cleveland due to a hip injury, so the team will need backup quarterback Tyler Huntley to guide it to a win to stay alive in the NFL playoff race.

Below is a full look at Miami’s schedule:

Broncos remaining schedule

The other good news for the Dolphins is that the Broncos have a difficult matchup to close out the 2024 NFL season. Denver is scheduled to host Kansas City in Week 18. The Chiefs have a 15-1 record and beat the Broncos in a tightly contested 16-14 Week 10 matchup.

That said, it isn’t clear whether the Chiefs – who clinched the AFC’s No. 1 seed on Christmas with a 29-10 win over the Pittsburgh Steelers – will play their starters in the final week. If not, that could make Denver’s path to a playoff-clinching win a bit easier.

As such, Miami’s postseason fate may ultimately rest in the hands of Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes.

Below is a look at Denver’s schedule:

This is where the Dolphins’ situation looked problematic. They needed the Colts to lose and Indianapolis entered Week 17 with the easiest remaining schedule in the NFL.

The Colts played against the New York Giants on Sunday and will face the Jacksonville Jaguars in Week 18. They had a combined record of 5- 25 entering the season’s final two weeks.

However, the Colts fell flat against one of the NFL’s worst teams, losing 45-33 to the Giants. That opened the door for the Dolphins to make it into the postseason if the Broncos stumble.

Below is a full look at Indianapolis’ schedule, which will no longer have any bearing on Miami’s playoff chances:

Dolphins potential playoff opponents

The Dolphins can only be the No. 7 seed in the NFL playoffs if everything breaks right for them. The Buffalo Bills clinched the No. 2 seed in the AFC on Sunday, so that would be Miami’s opponent if the Dolphins make it into the postseason.

The Dolphins are 0-2 against the Bills this season, losing by a combined score of 61-37.