When endeavoring to project the order of the nation’s top teams before anyone has played a real game, it’s become common to quote William Goldman, legendary screenwriter of “Butch Cassidy and the Sundance Kid” and “The Princess Bride”, who was referring to the search for elusive Hollywood success when he declared:

“Nobody knows anything.”

As college basketball has become a sport of near-constant roster turnover, that’s how it’s felt when the day arrived to compose The Sporting News preseason Top 25. But, you know, we’re not always that far off.

Last season’s TSN preseason rankings had a top four of No. 1 Duke, No. 2 Purdue, No. 3 Kansas and No. 4 Connecticut. Two of those teams reached the Final Four and played for the NCAA Championship. In today’s game, we’re going to take that as a win.

(Even if we had USC as a preseason top-10 team. Yikes!)

We hope to do at least as well this time around.

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Sporting News College Basketball Preseason Top 25

1. Alabama

Coach: Nate Oats

Key returnees: SG Mark Sears, PF Grant Nelson, F Jarin Stevenson, G Latrell Wrightsell,

Key additions: C Cliff Omoruyi, G Chris Youngblood, G Houston Mallette, F Derrion Reid

2024 finish: 25-12, NCAA Final Four

Why they’re here: There’s one lesson about what makes an NCAA champion that I’ve never abandoned, because it’s never abandoned me: You win it all with pros. You can make the Final Four with a team of excellent college players who can make money in Europe or hanging onto the fringe of the NBA. If you don’t have first-round draft picks, though, you’re not winning it all. We’ve got nearly 40 years of history that tell us this. I’ve covered nearly every Final Four since 1988, and each winner had at least one such player, usually more. Alabama has at least two players with that degree of talent: freshman forward Derrion Reid and developing sophomore Jarin Stevenson, the hero of last year’s Elite Eight game. The Tide also have the ability to stretch the floor with All-American Mark Sears and power forward Grant Nelson. They weren’t going to win it with last year’s terrible defense, but that’s why they brought in space eater/shot blocker Cliff Omoruyi from Rutgers. Is that enough to cover for some substandard defenders and make the Tide effective at that end? That’ll be the question that determines how far Alabama advances.

2. Houston

Coach: Kelvin Sampson

Key returnees: SG LJ Cryer, PF J’Wan Roberts, SG Terrence Arceneaux, PF Joseph Tugler, G Emanuel Sharp, F Ja’Vier Francis

Key additions: PG Milos Uzan, G Mercy Miller, F Chase McCarthy

2024 finish: 32-5, NCAA Sweet 16

Why they’re here: Either Houston or Purdue has been the best uncrowned program of this decade. The Cougars have won 30 games or more for three consecutive years and are 148-27 since the 2019-20 season. They haven’t reached the Final Four since 2021, but there are few teams that have had worse injury luck – including the crushing blow last March of losing All-American point guard Jamal Shead in the Sweet 16 loss to Duke. Replacing him permanently may be just as difficult, but Milos Uzan won’t be expected to fill the responsibility of being the nation’s best leader and backcourt defender. He just has to run the show. With the number of excellent players around him, it should be quite a show.

3. Duke

Coach: Jon Scheyer

Key returnees: PG Tyrese Proctor, SG Caleb Foster

Key additions: F Cooper Flagg, SF Kon Knueppel, C Khaman Maluach, C Patrick Ngongba, SF Isaiah Evans, F Sion James, PF Mason Gillis, F Maliq Brown

2024 finish: 27-9, NCAA Elite Eight

Why they’re here: Why are they here and not No. 1? Seems a fair question, given that Cooper Flagg has the potential to be a program-elevating force superior to anyone we’ve seen in college basketball since (at least) Anthony Davis at Kentucky. USA Basketball wasn’t fooling around when they invited Flagg to be a part of the “Select Team” that challenged the American men’s Olympic squad daily in training camp. They brought him in because he could be a difference-maker for the program’s continued pursuit of gold medals, possibly as soon as 2028. There’s a belief that with so many teams carrying so much experience that it’s no longer possible to be freshman-led and win a title. But there are only so many teams that have tried this – and there even are fewer freshmen who’ve operated at Flagg’s level. The question with Duke is whether their point guard play will support a championship run. Tyrese Proctor came in with a high-end reputation, but he’s not been that level of player, and Duke had to use Jeremy Roach and Jared McCain to help with creating opportunities. They’re both gone, and none of the program’s excellent recruits really is suited to the task. Unless it’s Flagg. Initiating the offense and being the offense is quite a trick, and it’s not usually a national championship approach.

4. Connecticut

Coach: Dan Hurley

Key returnees: PF Alex Karaban, C Samson Johnson, G Hassan Diarra, SG Solomon Ball

Key additions: PF Tarris Reed, SG Aidan Mahaney, SF Liam McNeeley, PG Ahmad Nowell

2024 finish: 37-3, NCAA Champion

Why they’re here: Maybe the question should be something like, “Why aren’t they higher?” It’s fair to wonder, because a year ago the Huskies also saw a truckload of talent move on from the program and somehow managed to get appreciably better as a basketball team. The difference this time is that while there still is an impressive group here, there isn’t a returning championship point guard and two obvious first-round draft prospects. Alex Karaban was really smart to return, because he’s good enough to be a first-option on a Final Four contender and now he’ll get that chance. Samson Johnson will be at the core of a defense that still will excel. The question is at point guard. It’s been a while since UConn went with a freshman at the most important position. Diarra has played well in big moments for the Huskies, but only for moments at a time.

5. Kansas

Coach: Bill Self

Key returnees: C Hunter Dickinson, PG Dajuan Harris, PF K.J. Adams, SG Elmarko Jackson, PF Zach Clemence

Key additions: C Flory Bidunga, SF AJ Storr, SG Zeke Mayo, SG Rylan Griffin, G David Coit

2024 finish: 23-11, NCAA second round

Why they’re here: When the folks voting in the AP poll were placing KU at No. 1 in the 2023-24 preseason, we dissented because it was obvious last year’s Jayhawks did not meet that NBA-talent standard we discussed earlier. And after a few games, it was apparent they didn’t even have five capable starters. And then when Johnny Furphy developed sufficiently to give them five, the injuries began to diminish that number. It’s obvious Bill Self did not want to get himself trapped in that situation again, which is why KU was actively bringing in transfers who’d succeeded elsewhere. Storr has the potential to be the best of them; he could be a first-round talent on the wing. With the center position in the hands of stat-stuffer Hunter Dickinson and reliable point guard Dajuan Harris running things for a fourth consecutive year, all KU really needs is for a shooting guard to hit from deep and defend reliably. Oh, and the kind of depth one would expect with a top college team.

6. Purdue

Coach: Matt Painter

Key returnees: PG Braden Smith, SG Fletcher Loyer, PF Trey Kaufman-Renn, SF Cam Heide, SG Myles Colvin, C Will Berg, PF Caleb Furst

Key additions: C Daniel Jacobson, SG Gicarri Harris

2024 finish: 34-5, NCAA finalist

Why they’re here: The absence of transfer-portal additions to Purdue’s roster means things are just a smidge thin. There is a ton of depth on the wing, with Fletcher Loyer, Cam Heide and Myles Colvin all capable of starting at the Big Ten level. And Smith went 34 minutes a game last season at the point. But Purdue needs either Will Berg or Daniel Jacobson (or, if necessary, both in rotation) to adequately fill the center position. They can play with Trey Kaufman-Renn in the middle if necessary, but Matt Painter is suggesting significant improvement from him that won’t be managed as an undersized post player.

7. Gonzaga

Coach: Mark Few

Key returnees: C Graham Ike, G Nolan Hickman, PG Ryan Nembhard, SF Steele Venters, PF Braden Huff, PF Ben Gregg

Key additions: C Ismaila Diagne, SF Michael Ajayi, SG Khalif Battle, PG Braeden Smith

2024 finish: 27-8, NCAA Sweet 16

Why they’re here: Most of Gonzaga’s best teams have had one or two stars from which the team’s excellence flowed, with Adam Morrison and Rui Hachimura among the terrific examples of this. This bunch of Zags really is a bunch; there’s so much depth it almost seems unfair. With Braeden Smith transferring in from Colgate, where he was Patriot League Player of the Year, they even have two point guards. A whole lot of really promising teams are wondering if they have one.

Gonzaga is going to wear down a whole bunch of their opponents. And and it’s possible Graham Ike and Ryan Nembhard could contend for All-America honors. In a year that portends so much balance among the top teams, this group could win Mark Few that national championship he’s sought for a quarter-century.

8. North Carolina

Coach: Hubert Davis

Key returnees: SG RJ Davis, PG Elliot Cadeau, SG Seth Trimble, PF Jae’lyn Withers,

Key additions: SF Cade Tyson, F Ven-Allen Lubin, SG Ian Jackson, SF Drake Powell

2024 finish: 29-8, NCAA Sweet 16

Why they’re here: There may not be a team with a better backcourt in all of college basketball. Davis is an established first-team All-American, and Cadeau is a playmaker with star potential. This probably will be a relatively small team by Carolina standards, which gave us one of the first “twin towers” teams with Mitch Kupchak and Tommy Lagarde back in the late ’70s and traditionally has seen its best teams led by outstanding big men (Tyler Hansbrough, Sean May and the late Eric Montross, among them). They’ll at least need someone capable of rebounding, defending and keeping the offense flowing.

9. Creighton

Coach: Greg McDermott

Key returnees: C Ryan Kalkbrenner, PG Steven Ashworth, F Mason Miller, PF Isaac Traudt

Key additions: SG Pop Isaacs, PF Jackson McAndrew, SF Jamiya Neal

2024 finish: 25-10, NCAA Sweet 16

Why they’re here: Creighton was a top-10 offensive efficiency team last season, and this group could be even better if Miller continues to progress and if transfers Isaacs and Neal deliver as expected. This also should be an improved squad on defense; Ashworth’s struggles to defend the ball may continue, but Neal provides the physical presence on the wing that last year’s team lacked after Arthur Kaluma transferred out. Kalkbrenner excels at rim protection and is an artist in the pick-and-roll.

10. Arkansas

Coach: John Calipari

Key returnees: PF Trevon Brazile

Key additions: SG Johnell Davis, SF Adou Thiero, C Zvonimir Ivisic, C Jonas Aidoo, G D.J. Wagner, PG Boogie Fland, SF Karter Knox, SF Billy Richmond,

2024 finish: 16-17

Why they’re here: Let’s be honest: If John Calipari had assembled this same group and adorned them all in Kentucky uniforms, you’d be wondering why they weren’t ranked higher. There are five legit contributors transferring in and three top-30 high school recruits. The only contributor who returns for Arkansas is Trevon Brazile, but there were only a couple more any coach would have wanted to stick around. Brazile’s knee injury and diminished effectiveness were a big reason the Razorbacks went backward in Eric Musselman’s final season before leaving for USC. If he’s close to 100 percent, the Hogs will have a physical presence that Calipari’s best teams always enjoyed.

11. Iowa State

Coach: T.J. Otzelberger

Key players: PG Tamin Lipsey, SG Nate Heise, C Dishon Jackson, PF Milan Momcilovic, SG Curtis Jones, SG Keshon Gilbert

2024 finish: 29-8 NCAA Sweet 16

12. Arizona

Coach: Tommy Lloyd

Key players: SG Caleb Love, PF Tobe Awaka, SF Trey Townsend, SF Carter Bryant, PG Jaden Bradley, SG KJ Lewis, C Motiejus Krivas

2024 finish: 27-9, NCAA Sweet 16

13. Tennessee

Coach: Rick Barnes

Key players: PG Zakai Ziegler, SG Jordan Gainey, SG Jamai Mashack, C Felix Okpara, SG Chaz Lanier, SF Igor Milicic, SF Darlinstone Dubar

2024 finish: 27-9, NCAA Elite Eight

14. Baylor

Coach: Scott Drew

Key players: SG VJ Edgecombe, G Jeremy Roach, C/PF Norchad Omier, PG Robert Wright, SG Jayden Nunn, SG Langston Love, PF Yanis Ndjonga

2024 finish: 24-11, NCAA round of 32

15. Auburn

Coach: Bruce Pearl

Key players: C Johni Broome, PG JP Pegues, SF Chad Baker-Mazara, SG Denver Jones, C Dylan Cardwell, SG Miles Kelly

2024 finish: 27-8, NCAA round of 64

16. Kentucky

Coach: Mark Pope

Key players: G Lamont Butler, SF Jaxson Robinson, SG Otega Oweh, SF Kobe Brea, PF Andrew Carr, C Brandon Garrison, C Amari Williams, PG Kerr Kriisa, SF Ansley Almonor, SG Collin Chandler

2024 finish: 23-10, NCAA round of 64

17. UCLA

Coach: Mick Cronin

Key players: G Dylan Andrews, SF Lazar Stefanovic, SG Sebastian Mack, C Aday Mara, SF Kobe Johnson, PF Eric Dailey, SG Dominick Harris, SG Skyy Clark, PF Tyler Bilodeau, PF William Kyle, PG Trent Perry

2024 finish: 16-17

18. Indiana

Coach: Mike Woodson

Key players: C Oumar Ballo, PF Malik Reneau, SF McKenzie Mgbako, PG Myles Rice, SG Trey Galloway, SG Kanaan Carlyle, SF Luke Goode

2024 finish: 19-14

19. Marquette

Coach: Shaka Smart

Key players: SG Kam Jones, SF David Joplin, G Stevie Mitchell, G Chase Ross, PF Ben Gold, G Sean Jones

2024 finish: 27-10, NCAA Sweet 16

20. Cincinnati

Coach: Wes Miller

Key players: SG Jizzle James, SF Daniel Skillings, G DaVeon Thomas, SG CJ Fredrick, SF Simas Lukosius, C Aziz Bandaogo, PF Dillon Mitchell, F Tyler Betsey, C Arrinten Page, SG Connor Hickman

2024 finish: 22-15

21. Xavier

Coach: Sean Miller

Key players: PF Zach Freemantle, PF Jerome Hunter, SG Ryan Conwell, SF Dailyn Swain, C John Hugley, SG Marcus Foster, PG Trey Green, G Roddie Anderson

2024 finish: 16-18

22. Illinois

Coach: Brad Underwood

Key players: G Ty Rodgers, SG Kasparas Jakucionis, SF Will Riley, PF Carey Booth, F Ben Humrichous, C Tomislav Ivisic, SF Tre White, PG Kylan Boswell

2024 finish: 29-9, NCAA Elite Eight

23. Wake Forest

Coach: Steve Forbes

Key players: C Efton Reid, SG Cameron Hildreth, SG Hunter Sallis, PF Omaha Biliew, PG Ty-Laur Johnson, F Tre’Von Spillers

2024 finish: 19-14

24. St. John’s

Coach: Rick Pitino

Key players: SF RJ Luis, PG Kadary Richmond, PG Deivon Smith, SF Aaron Scott, C Zuby Ejiofor, SG Simeon Wilcher, C Vince Iwuchukwu

2024 finish: 20-13

25. Rutgers

Coach: Steve Pikiell

Key players: PG Dylan Harper, F Ace Bailey, G Jeremiah Williams, SG Tyson Acuff, SF Jordan Derkack

2024 finish: 15-17