Admin December 25, 2024
NFL Week 17 picks: Why you should consider Lions, Panthers and Colts
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his three best bets ahead of Week 17 games. Find out why he likes the Lions, Panthers and Colts to cover the spread.
The NFL’s Christmas present to its fans in 2024 is a Wednesday doubleheader package featuring a couple of potential AFC playoff previews. First, the Kansas City Chiefs will visit the Pittsburgh Steelers as Kansas City looks to clinch the conference’s No. 1 seed.
The Chiefs have gone 2-0 to begin their brutal stretch of three games in 11 days. That allowed them to improve to an NFL-best 14-1 on the season.
Kansas City has already clinched the AFC West title but wrapping up the No. 1 seed ahead of the final week of the season would certainly benefit the team. It would give the Chiefs a chance to rest their injured starters – including star quarterback Patrick Mahomes, who is playing through an ankle injury – for a couple of weeks leading into what they hope will be an unprecedented three-peat.
The Steelers won’t make it easy on the Chiefs. Like Kansas City, Pittsburgh has already locked up a playoff spot, but the Steelers are fighting to stave off competition from the Baltimore Ravens to win the AFC North. Pittsburgh has a narrow lead in that battle, but it can ill afford to drop a third consecutive game, as it’s tied in the standings with the Ravens.
With that in mind, both teams are going to put their best foot forward in Wednesday’s game despite the grueling schedule each is facing. That should give both teams a chance to rip off big plays, and it will allow bettors an opportunity to back some intriguing props and anytime touchdown bets.
What are the best bets for the Steelers vs. Chiefs game? Here are the top props bets to consider backing during the Week 17 battle between AFC contenders on Christmas Day.
NFL best bets: Steelers vs. Chiefs
All odds are via BetMGM as of Tuesday
Xavier Worthy OVER 4.5 receptions (+105)
As long as Worthy’s reception totals remain relatively low, it’s fine to keep going back to the well with him. The rookie has logged 11 targets in back-to-back games and it appears that he is starting to develop chemistry with Mahomes.
Last week, the Chiefs designed several quick-hitter plays to Worthy to slow down the Texans’ pass rush. Andy Reid may take a similar approach to limit T.J. Watt and a Steelers defense that generates pressure on 23% of dropbacks. That would help Mahomes avoid scrambling too frequently on his banged-up ankle.
Most of Worthy’s targets come within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage, which makes them easier to catch. As long as he continues to get volume, he should have a good chance to go over this number. He has recorded at least five catches in four consecutive games, after all.
Samaje Perine OVER 9.5 receiving yards (-110)
Perine may not be the first player you think of when looking at Kansas City’s offense, but he has been consistently productive in his limited role as a pass-catching back this season. In 10 of his last 11 games, Perine has posted at least 11 receiving yards, and he peaked with a season-high 50 yards on three catches against the Texans.
There is some risk in backing Perine in this spot. Namely, he has played just 25% of the snaps or less in four consecutive games, so he is unlikely to see that role expand significantly on Christmas.
Still, with the Chiefs easing Isiah Pacheco back into action after his broken leg, Perine will see the field, and it may take him just one reception to go over his total in this one.
Pat Freiermuth OVER 28.5 receiving yards (-120)
The Chiefs sport one of the NFL’s best defenses, but they have been weak against tight ends throughout the 2024 NFL season. Kansas City has allowed a league-high 1,090 receiving yards to tight ends this season on 94 receptions, third-most in the NFL.
The veteran tight end saw a three-game touchdown streak come to an end against the Ravens, but he continued to build chemistry with Russell Wilson. He is averaging 4.75 targets per game over his last four outings, so if he continues to see this kind of volume against the Chiefs, he should have a chance to put up one of his best yardage performances of the year.
Freiermuth also figures to get a boost from the projected return of Steelers receiver George Pickens. That should give the tight end slightly more space in which to operate, so feel free to bet the over here and fire up Freiermuth as a quality DFS option.
Travis Kelce anytime TD (+170)
Kelce has just two touchdowns this season and hasn’t found the end-zone since the Chiefs’ Week 10 game against the Denver Broncos. That could change against the Steelers.
Pittsburgh has allowed six touchdowns to tight ends this season, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL. Three of those scores have come over the last three weeks, including two against the Ravens’ duo of Isaiah Likely and Mark Andrews, so don’t be surprised if Kelce finds some available real estate on Christmas.
More daring bettors could also consider Noah Gray (+525) as a longshot bet, but Kelce’s plus-money odds are too good to pass on in a favorable matchup.
