Two 2-0 teams face off in Pittsburgh on Sunday when Los Angeles makes the trip to Acrisure Stadium to match up with the Steelers. Despite scoring only one touchdown in eight quarters, Pittsburgh continues to find a way to win games under head coach Mike Tomlin, a feeling that Chargers fans may be growing accustomed to under Jim Harbaugh.
Here’s why you should be optimistic about a Chargers victory and 3-0 start, which would be Los Angeles’ first since 2002.
Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt have combined to allow only three pressures in the Chargers’ first two games, limiting name-brand players like Maxx Crosby and Jadeveon Clowney in the process. They’ll have another tough test with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith lining up for the Steelers, but early returns suggest that Los Angeles’ duo on the outside is more than cut out for the job.
Alt and Slater were PFF’s top-graded tackles in Week 2, and the duo is currently ranked second in the league in true pass set blocking grade, behind only the Eagles duo of Jordan Mailata and Lane Johnson. The Chargers also allow pressure in 2.5 seconds or less at the second-lowest rate in the league at just 11% of Justin Herbert’s dropbacks.
Herbert has been successful this season against Cover 3, which the Steelers have run 43% of the time in their first two games to great success. In 22 dropbacks against the coverage this season, however, Herbert has a completion percentage over expected (CPOE) of 15.6%, sixth-best among starting quarterbacks. His 5.7 average depth of target is third amongst that cohort, behind only Derek Carr (11.7 in a bombs-away Saints offense) and Baker Mayfield (5.8).
Cover 3 is meant to take away deep throws by putting three defenders, each defending a third of the field, deep. But Herbert has shown he’s more than happy to take the checkdown in Greg Roman’s offense, often finding Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst on curls over the middle. Pittsburgh allows the eighth-most targets to tight ends through two weeks.
Steelers offensive coordinator Arthur Smith has done a good job keeping the ball safe in Justin Fields’ hands through two weeks as he fills in for the injured Russell Wilson, but Fields is not a historically turnover-avoidant player. His career 3% interception rate is one of the worst among active starting quarterbacks – for comparison, Herbert’s career interception rate is 1.7%.
Fields may not be asked to throw very often – he’s thrown 20 and 23 passes in Pittsburgh’s two games – but the Chargers are also the best run defense the Steelers have faced this season, which could force that number to tick up. And as it does, a Fields turnover grows more and more likely, which could end up being the difference in what many expect to be a close, grind-it-out game.
Justin Herbert is now 18-0 when his defense allows fewer than 20 points, a mark that the Steelers have not reached this season despite playing against Atlanta and Denver, who rank 17th and 27th in defensive DVOA, respectively. Meanwhile, the Chargers are first in defensive DVOA.
Los Angeles has allowed only one touchdown in their first two games, a swing route to Raiders running back Alexander Mattison in Week 1. Pittsburgh has only scored one touchdown in two games, a red zone pass to tight end Darnell Washington last week. While it’s still early in the season, the Chargers defense looks like it will be a top unit in the league by year’s end, while the Steelers are still trying to start their engines. If LA holds them down again, history says the Chargers will come away victorious.
The Steelers are sixth in defensive DVOA in their own right, a major factor why most pundits think Sunday’s contest will be a low-scoring affair. In those sorts of games, the team that gains a field position advantage, whether through turnovers or special teams, is often the one that comes away victorious.
That should be the Chargers, although Ryan Ficken’s special teams unit has gotten off to a bit of a slower start. Returner Derius Davis was first-team All-Pro last season and feels like he’s getting closer and closer to breaking a big return by the week. Kicker Cameron Dicker has been one of the league’s best since landing with Los Angeles, missed extra point last week notwithstanding. Punter JK Scott has been up-and-down, but he should be able to outkick Steelers punter Corliss Waitman, who Pittsburgh signed prior to Week 2 after their starting punter Cameron Johnston suffered a season-ending injury.
This article originally appeared on Chargers Wire: Chargers’ reasons for optimism in Week 3 matchup with Steelers