Team USA looks every bit the overwhelming favorite to win gold they were expected to be, but the margin for error is now zero. Three straight wins and nothing less is what’s required, and anything can happen in a one-game scenario.

At least that’s what Brazil will be telling themselves ahead of their clash on Tuesday, as they come in as major underdogs to take down the tournament favorite.

My Brazil vs. USA predictions highlight the outstanding interior defense of Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo, and why that pairing spells trouble for one of Brazil’s brightest stars.

Brazil vs USA prediction

My best bet
Bruno Caboclo Under 14.5 points (-105)

My analysis

The top names on the Team USA marquee — LeBron James, Steph Curry, and Kevin Durant — are so dazzling you’d be forgiven for not realizing that some of the less glamorous stars have been arguably more impactful. 

Scoring is never going to be an issue for a team as deep on shooting, finishing, and playmaking as this one, but the number of players the Americans have in addition to their superstar core who gladly do the dirty work is what makes this team the most dangerous Team USA since the Dream Team. 

The combination of Anthony Davis and Bam Adebayo as a defensive duo is nothing short of unfair. Both are Defensive Player of the Year-level players who have proven capable of being difference makers in multiple deep playoff runs. Davis’ rim protection is among the best, while Bam is the single best switch big in the entire NBA. 

Their chemistry and swift adoption to FIBA rules that favor the defense make them a nightmare pairing for opposing players.

Brazil’s offense has relied heavily on their bigs, mainly Bruno Caboclo, to function. His finishing as a pick and roll player, ability to rebound, and his outside shot have paid major dividends for Brazil. He feasts on the glass against lesser teams and generates gobs of extra possessions. His domination of Japan to the tune of 33 points on 13 of 19 from the floor and 18 rebounds is why Brazil advanced out of group play.

But there are also reasons Bruno is not doing this against NBA players. He can’t match the processing speed or athletic ability of NBA bigs, let alone the very best there are like Davis, Bam, and Joel Embiid. 

Against Rudy Gobert and Victor Wembanyama, a defensive pairing in the same realm as what Team USA puts out, Caboclo went scoreless in just 11 minutes. He was plagued by foul trouble and got into his own head and completely took himself out of the game. 

Everything I’ve seen from this Team USA defense suggests to me that Bruno is in for another frustrating game on Tuesday.

Kerr’s KD calculus

My Kevin Durant pick: Under 15.5 points (-105)

For a player coming off a nagging calf injury, Kevin Durant has had a pretty unimpeachable Olympics so far. But while KD is more than capable of hitting this prop (or even doubling it up) I think the incentives are such that it is unlikely.

Steve Kerr said publicly following the game against Puerto Rico that Durant will continue to come off the bench, but that his minutes are going to creep up as the games get harder.

But while this is a single elimination game, I’m not sure it meets that criteria. Team USA are once again massive favorites in this one, and arguably still not favored enough. While the Americans have struggled to cover some of the gigantic lines set for them by oddsmakers in this tournament, the spread suggesting a 27-point gap between these two teams is completely reasonable. 

The game could be functionally over in the first quarter, and point differential is no longer a factor. There’s no reseeding after games, the brackets are set, and for the first time in the tournament, there is no difference between a one-point win and a 30-point win. When the games aren’t close, you’ll find that Team USA is at its most egalitarian. It’s when the chips are down that I expect Durant to take over.

Brazil vs USA same-game parlay (SGP)

Team USA has made a clear calculus. Opposing teams will be allowed to shoot a high volume of 3s, they will in turn be denied any space to attack the rim whatsoever. That’s a strategy that is adopted by many of the best NBA teams even without the FIBA rules that allow defenders to stay in the paint indefinitely. Given Team USA’s elite rim protection, it’s a reasonable strategy to adopt.

But it does carry some risk. Even with some of the best guard defenders in the world like Jrue Holiday and Derrick White, the more 3s an opponent takes, the better chance they have of establishing a rhythm.

Brazil as a team have been in quite a rhythm. They’re shooting a scorching 45.3 3P% as a team from downtown, with Vitor Benite leading the way. Benite has been a member of the Brazilian national team since 2011, and his shooting is a big part of what makes an otherwise less-talented team dangerous. 

Benite regularly shoots in the high 30s to mid-40s from deep, but in group play, he went 9-for-16 from deep for 56.2%. Given how many 3s the Americans concede, Benite is a good bet to make two more.

Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.

Brazil vs USA odds

Odds as of 8-6.

Brazil vs USA game info

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