Admin December 6, 2024
Bills secure AFC East, Ravens continue with self-inflicted wounds
Mackenzie Salmon breaks down the top storylines from Week 13 in the NFL.
Sports Seriously
NFL fans, rejoice. Another Sunday is here and with it comes a solid, 11-game slate that will provide a great deal of Week 14 entertainment.
A whopping six NFL teams are on bye in Week 14 – as part of the league’s post-Thanksgiving “Bye-mageddon, Part 2” – and that will render some of the most exciting offenses, like Lamar Jackson‘s Baltimore Ravens and Jayden Daniels‘ Washington Commanders, inactive.
Still, there are plenty of quality matchups fans will get to enjoy. That includes a battle of NFC playoff hopefuls in the Minnesota Vikings vs. Atlanta Falcons game, a rivalry clash between the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Cleveland Browns and a nightcap featuring two AFC playoff contenders, the Kansas City Chiefs and the Los Angeles Chargers.
NFL bettors will take particular pleasure in picking apart the Sunday slate. There will be plenty of opportunities to find good values and make intriguing bets that could have a chance to cash.
Which picks against the spread, prop bets and anytime touchdown choices could ultimately pay off in a big way if included in parlays? Below is a multi-leg parlay to consider for Sunday.
Best bets for NFL Sunday parlay
All odds are via BetMGM as of Thursday.
Pittsburgh Steelers (-6.5, -110) vs. Cleveland Browns
This line looks a little steep on the surface, but there’s a good reason that the Steelers are favored by nearly a touchdown in this contest. The Browns just played in Denver, and teams have struggled offensively while adjusting from the city’s thin air to the conditions in their next venue.
For example, Denver has played six home games this year, including their 41-32 “Monday Night Football” victory over the Browns in Week 13. Their previous five opponents have averaged just 16.8 points per game in their first game after playing in Denver, with the Carolina Panthers‘ 23-point output against the New Orleans Saints in Week 9 representing a high-water mark for the team.
The Steelers allow just 18.7 points per game, so this is a difficult matchup for the Browns. Some may still be scared off this number after Jameis Winston‘s 497-yard, four-touchdown game against the Broncos, but remember that he didn’t log a touchdown against the Steelers when they met in Week 12.
Those scared that this number is too large – a fair concern given Mike Tomlin’s mediocre track record as a favorite (94-102-5 ATS) – can feel free to include the Steelers moneyline (-300) in a parlay instead. Either way, it’s hard to trust Cleveland in this spot.
Chicago Bears (+4, -110) at San Francisco 49ers
The Bears fired Matt Eberflus after their late-game clock management debacle against the Detroit Lions. This will be their first game since that contest, and they should have a great chance to cover against a banged-up 49ers team.
Since 2020, there have been 13 in-season head coaching firings, excluding Ebeflus. Teams are an impressive 10-3 against the spread (ATS) in the games immediately following the firing, lending creed to the adage that players tend to step up their performances after an in-season dismissal.
The 49ers are also decidedly banged up and will be without their top two running backs (Christian McCaffrey and Jordan Mason) and top wide receiver (Brandon Aiyuk) for this game, while star left tackle Trent Williams and edge rusher Nick Bosa are also iffy. The 49ers are 0-4 straight up without Williams over the last two seasons, so if he’s out, daring bettors may want to substitute the four-point spread for the Bears moneyline in this spot.
Sam Darnold OVER 1.5 passing TDs (-130)
Darnold has been a model of consistency for the Vikings of late. He has recorded multiple passing touchdowns in five of his last six games. He has another strong matchup on tap in Week 14 against the Falcons, who have allowed 21 passing touchdowns to quarterbacks this year, tied for the seventh-most in the NFL.
That said, the real appeal of adding Darnold is that the Vikings haven’t been able to score on the ground during the 2024 NFL season. They have just six total rushing touchdowns, tied for the second-fewest in the NFL behind only the Dallas Cowboys, and they have averaged just 91.3 rushing yards per game over their last three contests.
As long as the Vikings continue to struggle on the ground, Darnold will be asked to make more plays through the air. That bodes well for him in this favorable matchup.
Alvin Kamara anytime TD (-150)
Kamara was one of the NFL’s most productive running backs in the early stages of the 2024 NFL season, but surprisingly, he has endured a long touchdown dry spell. He hasn’t scored since the Saints’ Week 6 loss to the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, a streak that he would like to end in a favorable matchup against the New York Giants.
The Giants have struggled badly against running backs this season. They have allowed 1,417 rushing yards to the position, good for the fifth-most in the NFL, and they just lost Dexter Lawrence to a season-ending elbow injury. That will only make it more difficult to stop Kamara, who is averaging 22.1 touches per game yet could still see an uptick in opportunities following Taysom Hill‘s season-ending knee injury.
There’s much to like about Kamara in this spot, so feel free to back him as a floor-raiser for this parlay. If you’re looking to be more daring, going with Kamara’s backup, Jamaal Williams (+175), could be a solid bet, as the bigger-bodied veteran could take over some of Hill’s red-zone touches.