Admin November 17, 2024
NFL Week 11 picks and predictions: Why you should consider Saints and Packers on Sunday
Lorenzo Reyes is back with his best bets for Sunday’s slate of games.
The NFL Sunday slate for Week 11 will end with a bang, as two AFC wild-card hopefuls do battle in a “Sunday Night Football” clash that could be crucial for the playoff race.
Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals (4-6) are set to face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers (6-3) in the prime-time clash. It will mark just the second time that the 2020 NFL Draft class quarterbacks have started against one another, with Herbert owning the 1-0 record in their head-to-head duel.
The Bengals are desperate to win and stay in the AFC playoff chase while Jim Harbaugh’s Chargers can take a big step toward a wild-card berth with a victory. As such, this figures to be a fierce battle, and one that could feature some big moments from each offense.
Bettors will certainly be looking to take advantage of this potential high-flying matchup. Some will be looking to back Cincinnati’s offense, which has performed well in recent weeks despite the team’s middling record, while others will look at Los Angeles’ top-ranked scoring defense (13.1 points per game) and want to fade the Bengals.
Which bets should you back in this matchup? Here’s a potential same-game parlay that could heighten viewer interest during the Sunday night action.
Bengals vs. Chargers Same-Game Parlay for ‘Sunday Night Football’
All odds are via BetMGM as of Saturday night.
Ja’Marr Chase UNDER 6.5 receptions (+105)
This might seem like an unappealing bet after Chase’s 11-catch, 264-yard, three-touchdown outing against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 10, but it’s important to note that the Ravens have given up the second-most receptions to receivers this season (144). Comparatively, the Chargers have given up the third-fewest (86), good for just 9.5 receptions per game.
Chase is still likely to be Joe Burrow’s top receiver, but if Tee Higgins returns to action, Chase’s target share will diminish. He is averaging just 5.8 receptions per game when Higgins plays and has had six or fewer receptions in four of those contests. That makes this bet a solid value.
Chase Brown OVER 27.5 receiving yards (-110)
Brown has played at least 80% of the Bengals’ snaps in back-to-back games since Zack Moss‘ neck injury. In those contests, he has racked up 14 catches and 89 receiving yards with a touchdown.
Burrow seems comfortable targeting Brown as a checkdown and may have to do it frequently against a Chargers pass rush that features Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. Add in that the Chargers have allowed the eighth-most receptions to running backs (47) entering Week 10 while allowing just 81.4 rushing yards per game to RBs and this seems like a good game for Brown to do damage as a pass rusher.
Joe Burrow OVER 9.5 rushing yards (-120)
Over their last three games, the Chargers have allowed the quarterbacks facing them to rack up 78 rushing yards. Here’s a breakdown of each signal-caller’s performance.
None of those quarterbacks is a true scrambler or even a dual-threat quarterback (unlike Kyler Murray, who ran for 64 yards against the Chargers in Week 7). They are simply athletic enough to run forward for yards when plays break down and space develops in front of them.
Burrow fits that mold, so he should have a chance to become the seventh consecutive quarterback to run for at least 10 yards against the Chargers.
Cameron Dicker field goals made OVER 1.5 (-140)
This may not be the most exciting Charger leg to include in this parlay, but there’s a good chance it will hit. Los Angeles averages 2.3 field goals per game, eighth-most in the NFL entering Week 10, and Dicker has attempted at least two field goals in seven of his nine games this year.
Dicker is making 90.5% of his field goals this season, so if he gets two attempts against the Bengals, basic probability gives him a 81.9% chance he’ll make both attempts. The sportsbook odds imply Dicker has just a 58.33% chance of making two or more field goals. The odds take into account more data – including how often drives end in field goal range, how often Harbaugh might go for it on fourth down rather than kick and more – but this still seems like a solid value given how often Dicker has attempted at least two field goals.