The Matildas’ Olympic dreams hang in the balance, after a rear-guard performance against the United States was undone by Trinity Rodman and Korbin Albert in Marseille.

The defeat left Australia third in group B and waiting on outcomes in other matches later in the day to learn whether they will sneak through to the quarter-finals or go out. The US, meanwhile, finish top of the group and will face Japan in Paris on Saturday.

In 34 prior encounters, the Matildas had beaten the US just once – six years ago in Seattle. At the last Olympics, their group-stage encounter ended goalless, before the Americans triumphed over Australia in a frenetic bronze medal match. With a spot in the quarter-final on the line for the Matildas, it was imperative they defied history at the Stade Vélodrome.

The Americans started sharply, putting the Australian back-line under immediate pressure – although a yellow card to Samantha Coffey in just the third minute means the midfielder will miss the quarter-final. The United States had an early opportunity as a shot was spilled by Matildas goalkeeper Mackenzie Arnold, although scrambling defence resulted in a clearance.

That encounter foreshadowed the major battle of the first-half: the American attacking line-up against the Australian custodian, last year nicknamed “Minister of Defence”. Arnold was in fine form, variously blocking a powerful drive from Rodman following a dangerous break, punching away a long-range effort from Crystal Dunn and showing quick wits to fend a Lindsey Horan back-post header into the crossbar and away.

Following a torrid defensive display against Zambia, where the Matildas conceded five goals and needed last-minute heroics from Michelle Heyman to save their blushes, this was a markedly improved showing. The Matildas were compact and harried the Americans, putting 11 women behind the ball for much of the first half. Although it led to mismatched possession statistics – the United States had 72% of the ball at the break – the defensive formation was largely effective.

Until, in the 44th minute, the Matildas came unstuck. An out-swinging corner met the head of Sophia Smith, who headed it towards a busy six-yard box. The header was going wide, but 22-year-old Rodman poked it past a stunned Arnold. Australia’s rear-guard effort had been undone by a lock-picking effort in traffic.

Or had it? Just as the restart was imminent, French referee François Letexier paused the match to consult a sideline official. Letexier indicated to both managers that the goal would stand, incensing Matildas boss Tony Gustavsson who received a yellow card for his frustrations. Letexier returned to the centre-circle, only to again walk back to the sideline and fiddle with a head-set, seemingly experiencing technical difficulties.

At long last, Letexier decided to consult the Video Assistant Referee screen, before promptly deciding that whatever had caused the moment to be brought to his attention – possibly whether an offside American player was impacting with play – did not warrant further consideration. It was a farcical moment, but the goal stood and the Americans entered the break ahead.

The Matildas began the second half in a more spirited fashion, before Gustavsson rang the changes – bringing super-substitute Heyman and veteran Emily van Egmond into the fray. The Australians needed an equaliser to book a spot in the Olympic quarter-finals, and the changes signalled attacking intent from Gustavsson.

But Australia’s search for a goal left space for the US to exploit, which they did to devastating effect in the 77th minute, Korbin Albert pouncing on a misplaced clearance to dispatch the ball into the top corner from 25 yards out.

But the second goal failed to break Australian hearts, and they pressed on – knowing that goal difference may be relevant to their progression to the next round. At the beginning of injury time the Matildas’ efforts were finally rewarded, as central defender Alanna Kennedy connected with a flick-on from Heyman to beat American goalkeeper Alyssa Naeher.

The loss leaves the Matildas’ Paris 2024 chances on a knife-edge, requiring results to go Australia’s way in two group A games to be played later on Wednesday night. Unless the Matildas progress as one of two best third-placed teams, they will be on the plane home – the worst tournament result of the Gustavsson era.