As one of the hottest teams in Europe, Inter travel west to Spain as they take on Atletico Madrid in the second leg of their Champions League meeting in the Round of 16.

The Italians hold a 1-0 aggregate advantage heading into the match, thanks to the heroics of Marko Arnautovic at the San Siro two weeks prior. Last year’s finalists sit a massive 16 points adrift at the top of the Serie A table, and have a good argument to make as one of this season’s title contenders for the European crown.

Atleti, meanwhile, couldn’t be headed in a more opposite direction. While Inter have won 13 straight matches across all competitions, their Spanish opponents sit fourth in the La Liga table having lost five of their last eight.

Diego Simeone’s side has seemingly lost all attacking consistency, held without a goal in all five of those aforementioned recent defeats. The downturn coincides directly with an ankle injury to Antoine Griezmann, who could start here despite missing the last few weeks with a sprained ankle.

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Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan odds

Inter are favoured in this matchup, but not by as much as you’d think for two teams trending in opposite directions — they are plus odds on the moneyline, but feature cavernous 1/4 odds to advance.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan prediction

• Moneyline lean: Inter Milan (+140)
• Score prediction: Atletico Madrid 0-2 Inter Milan

Inter are clearly the better side in this matchup, and they will be happy to snatch a goal and skate by the rest of the way against a goal-starved Atletico Madrid. These are situations that Inter are more than comfortable in, as the Italians have secured five 1-0 victories in 2024.

Once Inter have their goal, they will not be exceedingly motivated to push for another, but they should come out on top, tabbed with plus odds which feels like a gift.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan match facts

• Date: Wednesday, Mar. 13, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 9 p.m. local (4 p.m. ET / 1 p.m. PT)*
• Location: Wanda Metropolitano (Madrid, Spain)
• Referee: Szymon Marciniak (POL), VAR: Tomasz Kwiatkowski (POL)
• Last meeting: Inter 1-0 Atletico Madrid (Feb. 20, 2024 | Champions League)

* The United States has already transitioned one hour ahead for daylight savings time, but European nations do not do so until March 31, and thus the time difference is currently four hours to the UK and five hours to Europe, instead of the traditional five/six hour difference during this small window.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan key stats

• Inter have 75 points through the first 28 Serie A matches this season, the second-most in Italian top flight history at this stage of a campaign.
• Atletico Madrid have turned around a first-leg defeat in the knockout stage of the modern UEFA Champions League twice. They advanced past Barcelona in the 2015/16 quarterfinals after falling 2-1 at the Camp Nou thanks to a 2-0 home victory, and prior to that saw out Bayer Leverkusen in the year before despite a 1-0 first-leg defeat in Germany. They also did so in the second round of the 1970/71 tournament against Cagliari.
• Since scoring a hat-trick on New Year’s Day, Alvaro Morata has just four goals in 13 matches across all competitions for Atletico Madrid.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan team news

The most glaring name on the Atletico Madrid injury list is Antoine Griezmann, whose sprained ankle threatened to keep him out all of March. Atleti have fallen on hard times in his absence, but there are reports he could return to the starting lineup with the club’s Champions League lives on the line. They are for sure without Cesar Azpilicueta and Jose Gimenez who are both sidelined with soft tissue problems, while Thomas Lemar will not be back for a few more weeks as he nurses a tendon injury.

Inter’s hero from the first leg, Marko Arnautovic, will miss this match as part of a month-long absence while nursing a hamstring injury. Juan Cuadrado has missed much of the year with an Achilles injury, and won’t be back for another few weeks, while Carlos Augusto and Stefano Sensi are both missing. Otherwise, Inter are at full strength and will be well-equipped to handle these 90 minutes in Spain, as Lautaro Martinez was rested in the win over Bologna and will be fully fit for this match.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan best bet

• Pick: Inter to win to nil
• Odds: +300 (BetMGM)

Inter possess one of Europe’s most impressive goal records, having conceded just 13 times in 28 Serie A matches. While their xG differential of +9.77 suggests a healthy amount of luck, they’ve also been in exceptional hands with goalkeeper Yann Sommer, whose outlandish +5 xGOT differential (the best in Serie A) indicates they can rely on their shot-stopper when the back line falters.

That combination has translated to European play, as Inter have conceded just five goals in seven Champions League matches this year, with three of those coming in the wild 3-3 draw with Benfica in Portugal. Inter have played to three 1-0 victories against the likes of Benfica, RB Salzburg, and Atletico Madrid in Europe this season, and that should continue here.

While Antoine Griezmann is back for Atleti, who have been far better at home than on the road this season, it’s not clear how truly fit he will be, returning earlier than expected for this huge match. Coming back from an ankle injury early does not always go well for attacking players, and Griezmann could be sapped of some creativity. 

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan prop bet

• Pick: Lautaro Martinez anytime goal scorer
• Odds: +140 (BetMGM)

Inter won’t go into the Wanda Metripolitano aiming for a huge goal sum in this match, but Lautaro Martinez is Inter’s go-to striker, and if anyone will put this match away, it’s going to be the Argentine. While Marcus Thuram presents a real threat, his finishing has left something to be desired in big matches this season, and anytime Inter really need someone to step up, it’s been Lautaro.

Lautaro has at least three shots in six of his last nine Serie A matches, and ripped off a massive seven efforts in the first leg of this Round of 16 matchup at home, putting three on target and unlucky not to find the net. At 2/1 odds to score on the road, there’s massive value on the Argentine to put Inter through to the quarterfinals.

• Pick: Atletico Madrid goalkeeper to make 4+ saves
• Odds: +175 (FanDuel)

Jan Oblak was heavily put to work in the first leg, forced into four saves as Inter ripped off 19 shots. The Italians were largely wasteful, but if they had a bit more cutting edge, they would have tested the veteran goalkeeper even more.

Even if Inter sit on their aggregate lead, they will still look to produce moments in the attacking third, and Oblak will be required to keep his side in the match as the 90 minutes drag on. Without Antoine Griezmann as a fully fit outlet, it will be on the Atletico Madrid back line to hold firm against Inter’s possessional advantage and strong press, and Oblak will be needed on many occasions.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan flier bet

• Pick: Inter -1.5 goal handicap
• Odds: +425 (DraftKings)

While this match is largely expected to be low scoring, it’s possible that Inter put this to bed early and punish Atletico Madrid for their defensive lapses. They won the xG battle in the first leg 2.3-0.62, indicating total dominance regardless of the final scoreline, and Inter will be well equipped to back that up on the road.

As the teams trend in opposite directions and boast injury lists in stark contrast from one another, there’s far more to be optimistic about when it comes to the Italians than their opponents, outside of home field advantage. Inter aren’t exactly known for blowing teams out of the water, but if you’re looking for a selection with a high return and solid value, backing Inter to win by at least two goals in a match bereft of drama is a solid option.

Atletico Madrid vs Inter Milan live stream, TV channel

This match will be shown in English exclusively on Paramount+ in the United States, as CBS Sports leaves the game to be only accessible on its streaming service. There is also a Spanish-language stream available from ViX.

In Canada, the sole broadcaster of the UEFA Champions League is DAZN, while in England this match featuring a Premier League club is slated for television on TNT Sports 1.