With the Premier League fixtures set to come thick and fast through December, Arsenal and Manchester United get set for a midweek rivalry clash at the Emirates on Wednesday.

The Gunners are second in the Premier League table and seemingly on the rise after three straight emphatic victories, but still sit a whopping nine points off league leaders Liverpool who are running away with the title race.

Thanks to that, the room for error has been erased and Arsenal cannot drop any more points if they wish to remain in the hunt. That will be a challenge as they meet a revitalized Manchester United side which thrashed Everton by a 4-0 score on the weekend giving fans renewed hope under new boss Ruben Amorim.

Still, the competition steps up significantly here on a quick turnaround, as they will miss a few key players against a Gunners side in strong form.

MORE: Predicted lineups, injuries, and latest team news ahead of Arsenal vs. Man United

Arsenal vs. Man United prediction, odds

• Moneyline lean: Arsenal (-225 on BetMGM)
• Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Man United

Man United looked to have renewed vigor under new management against Everton, but the underlying numbers suggest the four-goal scoreline flattered them significantly. In all likelihood, this match will be a dose of reality that the roster isn’t quite of the caliber the Red Devils want to be, and there’s only so much Amorim can do about that in the short term.

Arsenal’s recent uptick is much more trustworthy, as they were due for a correction back to expectations after a slow start riddled with fluky disciplinary issues. It’s often a grind with the Gunners (more on that below) but they should come out on top.

Arsenal vs. Man United match facts

• Date: Wednesday, December 4, 2024
• Kickoff Time: 8:15 p.m. local (3:15 p.m. ET / 12:15 p.m. PT)
• Location: Emirates Stadium (London, England)
• Referee: Sam Barrott, VAR: Jarred Gillett
• Last meeting: Man United 0-1 Arsenal (May 12, 2024 | Premier League)

MORE: A complete guide to betting on soccer in the United States

Arsenal vs. Man United best bet

• Best bet: Under 2.5 total goals
• Odds: +125 (BetMGM)

• Pick: Man United under 0.5 total goals
• Odds: +125 (BetMGM)

We backed the under for Arsenal’s last match against West Ham, which was…a laughable whiff in hindsight. The two teams combined for seven first-half goals, producing a thrillingly breathless 45 minutes. With that understanding, we’re taking the same play here. Let’s explain.

First, while Arsenal have put up strong attacking numbers across their last two matches, there’s reason to believe those explosive performances are due for a pullback. Their three goals against Nottingham Forest came on just 1.19 xG, while the five-goal outputs against Sporting (just lost Ruben Amorim) and West Ham (fluky seven-goal half) can be explained away.

Man United, meanwhile, scored their four goals against Everton on just 11 total shots and 1.07 xG, as Jordan Pickford had as much to do with things as Rashford or Zirkzee. Meanwhile, in Amorim’s debut, their 11 shots worth 0.8 xG on the road against Ipswich Town is much more an indication of where this attack stands currently.

At plus odds thanks to significant recency bias, there’s strong value in this play as the market expects another explosion from both these forward units.

Arsenal vs. Man United prop bet

In eight career Premier League starts against Manchester United, Bukayo Saka has drawn 18 fouls, including seven in his last three. While Diogo Dalot has been able to keep a clean record against the Gunners while dealing with Saka, the same cannot be said for Harry Maguire, who has been booked in three of his last five appearances against Arsenal.

With Maguire set to start in place of the suspended Lisandro Martinez, with plenty of defensive duties on Saka’s flank possible, the England international is a great selection to pick up a booking, having been cautioned in three of his five Premier League appearances this season despite barely seeing the field.